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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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I'm kinda tired of all this bs...
Do we have data of Audi sales after their CEO has been arrested?
How come this doesn't worry WS (but Elon not inhaling is)?

Do Audi fans worship the automaker's CEO? Check out all the stupid replies to every Musk tweet to measure how strong the cult has become. It's a pity many "reasonable" supporters have stopped following Musk closely and just read the (FUD) headlines.

What the analysts worry about is probably that, at some point, the most vocal supporters will just be considered crazy by non-fans.

I'm a very strong supporter of Tesla and Elon, but the cultish things the fans can say to defend Musk is staggering. This investor subforum isn't immune to that trend.
 
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Well, my sample size of n=1 (my wife) tells, Musk's behaviour can have some effect. Buying a car is affected by many things. Brand is one and rather important.

Gotta disagree with this. People have extremely short memories. Many people I know want a VW as their next car even after all the dieselgate stuff. In a few years all of this noise currently surrounding Tesla will be long forgotten.
 
Indeed:
  • The Bloomberg Tracker is reporting 90,198 Model 3's produced, which in addition to the 41,030 produced by the end of Q3, is 49,168 new Model 3's made in Q3 so far - and there's still 20 days to go in the quarter. The discontinuous 'jump' in their estimate is not surprising: they are adjusting their model as VINs arrive and on a weekly basis, and with smoothing.
  • Troy's tracker is estimating 81,391 units made so far in Q3, with end-of-Q3 production estimated at 52,591. This is right in the middle of Tesla's 50-55k Q3 production guidance.
I believe this is the widest 'spread' between the Bloomberg and Troy's tracker so far, and it will be very interesting to see who is going to be right in the end. Right now I'd guess Troy's tracker is more accurate, it has a good prediction track record for Q1 and Q2: 96% and 98%.
As I have pointed out more than once, Bloomberg is not updating the data in their model regularly, so it should be taken with a lump of salt. Today's data reflects the first update in over three weeks for both the VIN's reported in the wild and new VIN's pulled. (There haven't been new VIN's pulled until recently, but there have been many new VIN's delivered) My frustration and only point is that this model adjusts production numbers daily, but does not report data even weekly. I guess it's possible that their model uses the latest data, but they just choose not to update the charts. Strange!

Long and plan to stay so.
 
This morning's drop is because Nomura downgraded Tesla from $400 to $300 - they believe that Musk's recent behaviour has damaged the brand and reduced demand because consumers will worry that Tesla will not survive in the long term.
https://www.streetinsider.com/Analy...+Equity+is+No+Longer+Investable/14594780.html
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This morning's drop is because Nomura downgraded Tesla from $400 to $300 - they believe that Musk's recent behaviour has damaged the brand and reduced demand because consumers will worry that Tesla will not survive in the long term.
https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/NomuraInstinet+Downgrades+Tesla+Motors+(TSLA)+to+Neutral,+Says+Equity+is+No+Longer+Investable/14594780.html
The big media quote from the Nomura downgrade is that TSLA is "no longer investable" due to Elon's behavior. Expect to see that quote a lot today. Fear let up big time yesterday, now they are back at it, instilling fear in investors. What the heck does "no longer investable" even mean? Sell the stock while it's near the bottom of the range until things improve and it goes back up, then get back in when they say the coast is clear? The target was dropped to $300. $300 for a stock that's "no longer investable?" This combined with shorts returning and the media getting back on the fear message should make for an interesting day at testing longs again.
 
This morning's drop is because Nomura downgraded Tesla from $400 to $300 - they believe that Musk's recent behaviour has damaged the brand and reduced demand because consumers will worry that Tesla will not survive in the long term.
https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/NomuraInstinet+Downgrades+Tesla+Motors+(TSLA)+to+Neutral,+Says+Equity+is+No+Longer+Investable/14594780.html


So they're issuing a press release about Tesla losing business because of people getting scared by press releases about Tesla being a failing business..

Nice circle...
 
Do Audi fans worship the automaker's CEO? Check out all the stupid replies to every Musk tweet to measure how strong the cult has become. It's a pity many "reasonable" supporters have stopped following Musk closely and just read the (FUD) headlines.
lol. Musk has still 22 mln followers.
How in earth "the replies" by a few nut-jobs and paid trolls can characterize all other people? nice....

What the analysts worry about is probably that, at some point, the most vocal supporters will just be considered crazy by non-fans.
I have no doubts that in the Short Ville they will use any possible argument in wain attempts to discredit Musk.
I'm a very strong supporter of Tesla and Elon, but the cultish things the fans can say to defend Musk is staggering. This investor subforum isn't immune to that trend.
Tesla is no football club and Musk is not a tennis player neither is he a Hollywood clown. I doubt that anybody is in need for "your support".
 
Here we go again....after a quiet day.....
TSLA FUD on CNN this morning: bonds down, $9BN due by 2025. No mention of the 2019 note which will probably be repaid with cash. No insight. Just worried faces.....
Notice that they keep saying same crap. This "bonds down" is constant noise since april. What they forget to notice it's the result of Moody downgrading and exit by institutional investors.
8.5% is the norm for Tesla's rating. That's what retail investors can support. Interesting that they always use charts for 2025 bonds.
 
All this crap with Musk's behavior will be forgotten when numbers come out ... that is the ultimate tell as to the strength of the company and how "investable" it actually is. I'm not happy with some of the crap Elon's done in the last few months ... in particular the use of twitter to discuss share price and the privatization saga .... I could care less if he's smoking something that is LEGAL ... sheez ....

In any case ... I'm ready for Tesla to actually show a profit ... that is HUGE and will go a long way to counter the FUD.
 
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