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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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The next drag race I want to see is any super truck or car against a MS with 5-7 passengers and luggage going up pikes peak at 10k feet.

It will be so lopsided it wouldn’t even be funny.

I can’t wait to see an off-road challenge either. Wait until the F-450 floods going through 4 feet of water as the MX barrels through, then accelerates up the side of the hill at 10k feet.

Just not fair...
 
Tesla needs to redesign their battery pack to get costs down for the standard range version, so it's going to be later than most people expect. They might get a few out in Q1 (like less than 1% of production). In Q2, maybe like 10% of production. And that's probably optimistic. I think it's going to take a while to ramp, much longer than most expect.

What makes you think:

1) The design change is so different it's going to take so much longer than expected?

2) They may not follow a very similar path to the S & X packs and reuse a significant portion of the deisgn?

3) That work isn't already completed?
 
What about European deliveries (no right steering wheel) ?

Ah yes, those German Model 3s with their wrong steering wheels! ;)

I am (im)patiently awaiting my UK RHD delivery. I'm realistically not expecting it until maybe this time next year, but I'm just guessing like everyone else. Hopefully the stock price will keep me amused in the meantime.
 
The next drag race I want to see is any super truck or car against a MS with 5-7 passengers and luggage going up pikes peak at 10k feet.

It will be so lopsided it wouldn’t even be funny.

I can’t wait to see an off-road challenge either. Wait until the F-450 floods going through 4 feet of water as the MX barrels through, then accelerates up the side of the hill at 10k feet.

Just not fair...
Frankly, I think the drag race that would be killer PR would be the new SEMI up against most passenger cars. The tractor is supposed to be able to accelerate to 60 in FIVE SECONDS. That's faster that a RWD M3, and probably faster than nearly ANY 30-40k non performance passenger car. Not what one would expect of course. Certainly not the case for an ICE (probably wrong term in the class A license space) semi.

With an empty trailer, they could probably find some regular ICE vehicles it could STILL beat.
 
And? Electrec republished usual bussinessinsider nonsense about "massive rework".

Where do they do it? 80% rework rate as shorts claim would be a massive enterprise. Even just 4000 to rework is a massive action. Where do they do it? I see the only appropriate choice. It's just have to be Mars. Because there is no place on Earth with any massive Tesla activity to repair, rework cars.
 
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for those that don't read the other thread :

Behind the Scenes at Tesla’s Gigafactory: Field Notes From Our Recent Visit

very positive !

Thats a lot of valuable information we have been looking for. Thanks for posting.

  • As of mid-2018, the Gigafactory is now the highest-volume battery plant in the world, (...)
  • Tesla now produces more battery capacity than all other car manufacturers combined, including China, with a run rate of approximately 20 gigawatt-hours.
  • Tesla will likely achieve a battery cell cost of $100 per kWh by the end of the year, so long as commodity prices remain stable.
  • In the first ~45 days of offering Model 3 test-drives, the company reportedly received 60,000 sign-ups
  • Grohmann Engineering will help module production become three times faster, and three times cheaper, according to Viecha. Their new system will be sent to the Gigafactory by the end of Q3 or beginning of Q4.
  • The Grohmann machine will be in Zones 1, 2, 3, and Tesla will be receiving three machines. The process was designed to alleviate the previous bottleneck in module production which delayed Model 3 production significantly. The machine is already built, and points to the advantage Tesla will have in building future Gigafactories. They have learned many painful lessons, but have a solid blueprint for porting the factory across the world.
  • The Gigafactory is ~90% automated, according to Viecha. Eventually, battery cell production, energy pack assembly, and drive train unit production will strive for full automation.
  • Tesla will likely start producing the shorter-range Model 3 in the next eight months. Right now, they are focused on selling higher-margin cars where demand continues to exceed what is being produced.
  • ... next year they will start exporting Model 3s to other countries. They will also begin to earnestly produce Semis by 2020.
 
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What makes you think:

1) The design change is so different it's going to take so much longer than expected?

2) They may not follow a very similar path to the S & X packs and reuse a significant portion of the deisgn?

3) That work isn't already completed?

Well some people are GUESSING its a new formula battery and requires new electronics and by spreading them out, a much simpler cooling system.

Who knows. It's not just fewer cells. We know that much.
 
And? Electrec republished usual bussinessinsider nonsense about "massive rework".

Where do they do it? 80% rework rate as shorts claim would be a massive enterprise. Even just 4000 to rework is a massive action. Where do they do it? I see the only appropriate choice. It's just have to be Mars. Because there is no place on Earth with any massive Tesla activity to repair, rework cars.

According to the Shory Airforce or whatever they call themselves, it's happening in Lathrop. In addition to being a shipping logistics hub, it appears that there is a large warehouse in the middle of the property. This building can be seen with its bay doors open during most daytime hours. There are several semi trailers parked near the building... perhaps they contain the parts and components that are necessary for whatever level of rework needs to be done.

Fremont doesn't have the space to store vehicles or to rework them, so this seems plausible to me.
 
  • Informative
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Just to be clear any bond rating is going to consider the debt to equity ratio. The stock price is in the denominator of that ratio. So bond ratings will depend on part on the stock price level, not just the volatility of the stock.
this is very much true. But it's always nice to look things in practical context.
GM DtE 2.72 Rating baa2 (lower belt in investment package, i.e. buy if you have money left)
TEsla Dte 2.97. Rating b3 (meh, buy to speculate or hope rating will rise to resell).
 
  • Informative
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According to the Shory Airforce or whatever they call themselves, it's happening in Lathrop. In addition to being a shipping logistics hub, it appears that there is a large warehouse in the middle of the property. This building can be seen with its bay doors open during most daytime hours. There are several semi trailers parked near the building... perhaps they contain the parts and components that are necessary for whatever level of rework needs to be done.

Fremont doesn't have the space to store vehicles or to rework them, so this seems plausible to me.
Tesla doesn't have repair specialists to do rework on massive scale. They don't have enough people to do proper repairs even.
Do these shorty airforce ever bothered to make some naptkins calculation about what is 4000 cars, not talking about 80% here. It's just beyond absurd. I have no doubt that Tesla just like any other producer should have a center somewher to rework rejects and drops, i.e. cars with minor damage during transportation or montage mistakes. How a 100-200 per week transfer into 80% is beyond my understanding.
 
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I'd like to see at least some of the Model 3 "day one line waiters" who are holding out for the SR (short range) version get access to the full $7500 tax credit in the US. Many may not be able to take the full $7500, but I'm sure they'd appreciate being able to take at least $5000 or $6000. Perhaps Tesla could deliver two or three thousand SR cars in December, a nice Christmas gift for some.

In general, I think Tesla needs to always remember to reward those who are willing to physically wait in line for new Tesla products, even when this may reduce margins somewhat. This feeds a virtuous cycle, making it easier for Tesla to create buzz around future product launches. Apple does this to great effect. "Loyalty begets loyalty."

Personally, I am thankful that, with our Day One (2016/03/31 during the "reveal") Model 3 reservation, we were able to order our AWD Model 3 this past June. By allowing us to order a few months before taking delivery, Tesla enabled us to save a few thousand dollars by locking in lower prices on the dual-motor upgrade, non-black paint, destination and document fees, and future cellular network fees. I would say that our initial two-year "loan" of $1000 to Tesla, and our subsequent three-month $2500 "loan", are paying off in spades.

Sort of tying this into "market action", building the Tesla brand by demonstrating loyalty to customers will help the share price over the long run. My wife is very happy with Tesla, and this makes it easy for me to obtain her support whenever I feel ready to buy TSLA shares (as I did yesterday).

I'll "me too" this. I think they should, perhaps in November (to time things such that deliveries can be had before Dec 31st), start building RWD SR PUP models (and while perhaps anyone can configure, delivery should strive to prioritize by day/time of order). Let's call it 2 weeks of production at least. Then they can go back to prioritizing ASP and slipping in SR models only to fill in gaps due to mismatched part supply (i.e., if everything but the pack/module production is keeping up, switch to SR's) until the higher ASP demand levels out, then adjust product mix to meet demand accordingly. They can always start shipping to new countries internationally to adjust their product mix demand to rake in more higher ASP vehicles, too, though I wouldn't expect them to commit too much volume (perhaps just Performance models) outside the US and Canada (since they've already started shipping all models there, though likely at a reduced rate for now) for the first half of 2019.

I wouldn't ask for truly base model $35k models so soon, but I think $40k SR PUP models is a good compromise, and locks in one of the margin improving options to help keep from hitting the overall margins too hard, but still reward the faithful.
 
Tesla needs to redesign their battery pack to get costs down for the standard range version, so it's going to be later than most people expect. They might get a few out in Q1 (like less than 1% of production). In Q2, maybe like 10% of production. And that's probably optimistic. I think it's going to take a while to ramp, much longer than most expect.

To reiterate, according to the Q2 call, Tesla has redesigned the SR pack and it is anticipated to be lighter and less expensive then the current iteration, which will never see the production light of day.

Withdrawn due to reiteration.... gotta read the whole thread.

My Bad:rolleyes:
 
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