TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[oneday]

However the bonds are tanking because it's becoming apparent to almost everyone (aside from some delusional outliers) that Tesla are really going to struggle to fund the debt, R&D for the Y, the Truck and continue to ramp up production for lower margin cars, all at the same time. The math doesn't add up even with the most optimistic forecasts.

Becoming apparent to almost everyone (aside from some delusional outliers)

Wait so is it just now becoming apparent? What about the Moody’s downgrade 6 months ago saying they need to raise capital? What about all the analysts that said they need to raise capital by q3? What about all the airtime on CNBC saying Tesla needs to raise capital? All the articles on the incineration of cash. Why is it just now becoming apparent?

I guess my main question to you. Why does it take so long for what has been a flood of agencies, news, and analysts saying exactly this now become apparent to almost everyone (aside from some delusional outliers)?

I really want to understand how a companies cash needs become apparent contrary to management guidance. Based on what you are saying it takes 6 months of ratings agencies, analysts and news agencies all saying the same thing for things to become apparent. Is that how this works?

I’m obviously a delusional outlier (according to you). My delusion: having $2.2 billion in the bank, outgrossing all of the competition and having record demand lends credibility to management guidance that they will be FCF+ and not need to raise capital. And I’ve placed my bets to that effect. As delusional as you may think I am, I do recognize that they often miss guidance, and when they do it becomes a really BIG deal in the financial news. Personally, I’m happy with progress, and have been for the last 4 years I’ve owned TSLA.

 

[keydiver]

for those that don't read the other thread :

Behind the Scenes at Tesla’s Gigafactory: Field Notes From Our Recent Visit

very positive !

In the first ~45 days of offering Model 3 test-drives, the company reportedly received 60,000 sign-ups, according to Viecha.

See, lack of demand. I knew it would finally come out.

Tesla will likely start producing the shorter-range Model 3 in the next eight months. Right now, they are focused on selling higher-margin cars where demand continues to exceed what is being produced.

April 2019?? Really?? Come on Tesla!

 

[abasile]

It is usually written RoW but that has been used more than a couple of times on TMC er teslamotorsclub.com

I think we should just follow Elon's advice for Tesla employees, and try to avoid lots of abbreviations/acronyms.

 

[Foghat]

for those that don't read the other thread :

Behind the Scenes at Tesla’s Gigafactory: Field Notes From Our Recent Visit

very positive !

“According to Tesla, the company believes it can gather 1 billion miles of data per year from current drivers. “

I don’t think many appreciate the game shifting nature of this point above.

It is interesting to see some shorts argue autopilot team turnover as a negative.

Tesla Director Of AI Discusses Programming A Neural Net For Autopilot (Video) | CleanTechnica

However, from this article (video imbedded), one may find Tesla is rapidly expanding its software system to “2.0” which is nearly all deep neural network now as opposed to traditional “1.0” programming. The mix of 1.0 and 2.0 is becoming far more 2.0 as time moves forward. Therefore, 1.0 would play less of a leading role.

It is interesting how this is not more explored, as Tesla is in the process of establishing one of the most cutting edge, advanced neural network which will essentially write its own software and the most significant job of Tesla programmers is labeling data.

Since gradient descent is essentially derivative calculus, could “snap, crackle, and pop” tweet have anything to do with higher order operations within the neural network? Just curious if even to go there in looking into further

All these miles of high quality imaging data are getting labeld by programmers and then “learned” by Tesla’s deep neural network which they are calling software 2.0. It is also why we should take special note of the new Tesla chip and its order of magnitude performance jump over next best commercial chip.

All this data per year is vastly improving Tesla’s AI in historic, unprecedented ways. There is no other automotive AI like it on the planet right now.

 

[RobStark]

I think we should just follow Elon's advice for Tesla employees, and try to avoid lots of abbreviations/acronyms.

Tesla employees can use all the acronyms they want.

As long as they have been approved by Elon himself.

Hmmmm.

 

[Boomer19]

All corporate bonds are related to the value of equity. Convertible bonds are more strongly sensitive to stock prices than straight bonds.

understood but point was whether they are callable...
after a bloomberg search i found the 2025s are callable. not sure about the converts

it’s an interestng scenario if they were in a position at any point going forward to just be able to erase those fears/ammo for doubters

 

[MP3Mike]

Tesla needs to redesign their battery pack to get costs down for the standard range version, so it's going to be later than most people expect. They might get a few out in Q1 (like less than 1% of production). In Q2, maybe like 10% of production. And that's probably optimistic. I think it's going to take a while to ramp, much longer than most expect.

From what I have seen the redesign is done, the equipment has been built in Germany, and is supposed to be installed in GF1 later this month or early in Q4.

 

[DaveT]

Tesla needs to redesign their battery pack to get costs down for the standard range version, so it's going to be later than most people expect. They might get a few out in Q1 (like less than 1% of production). In Q2, maybe like 10% of production. And that's probably optimistic. I think it's going to take a while to ramp, much longer than most expect.

Actually, it looks more like Q2 next year for start of production of standard range Model 3.

Behind the Scenes at Tesla’s Gigafactory: Field Notes From Our Recent Visit

"Tesla will likely start producing the shorter-range Model 3 in the next eight months. Right now, they are focused on selling higher-margin cars where demand continues to exceed what is being produced."

Note: 8 months from end of August 2018, is end of April 2019... so Q2 2019 likely start of standard range Model 3, but ramp will likely be slow. So minimal standard range Model 3 deliveries in Q2 (maybe under 1000). So most standard Model 3 reservation holders will need to wait until second half of 2019 for delivery.

 

[tivoboy]

The averaged reworked car took an average of 37 minutes to repair.

We can logically assume as time goes on Tesla will get better, reducing the number of cars reworked and the time spent on each car repairing.

Tesla surges after Morgan Stanley becomes the second Wall Street bank to drop coverage of the stock (TSLA)

It's time AND materials. Having actually worked the "side spur" with the Germans, often if there is a blemish, or a QA systems check fails, or a window chip is noticed, or a wheel has a scratch, that car in the spur will either be moved off or an R&R replace will occur leading to materials cost for that car to increase. I don't think we have any of that data yet, but I'm hopeful, that we soon will.

 

[wipster]

for those that don't read the other thread :

Behind the Scenes at Tesla’s Gigafactory: Field Notes From Our Recent Visit

very positive !

Excellent article! Wish they would have touched on the solar panels either being deployed or soon to be deployed, but oh well.

Speaking of that, there has been a lot of discussion about using BEV's in emergencies, specifically afterwards when power is down. Superchargers are awesome, but not worth much if there is no power flowing to them. Anybody know how the effort to deploy solar panels along with Powerpaks at the Supercharger stations is going?

 

[MP3Mike]

Actually, it looks more like Q2 next year for start of production of standard range Model 3.

Behind the Scenes at Tesla’s Gigafactory: Field Notes From Our Recent Visit

"Tesla will likely start producing the shorter-range Model 3 in the next eight months. Right now, they are focused on selling higher-margin cars where demand continues to exceed what is being produced."

Just as note: January is in the next 8 months too.

 

[oneday]

It's time AND materials. Having actually worked the "side spur" with the Germans, often if there is a blemish, or a QA systems check fails, or a window chip is noticed, or a wheel has a scratch, that car in the spur will either be moved off or an R&R replace will occur leading to materials cost for that car to increase. I don't think we have any of that data yet, but I'm hopeful, that we soon will.

The missing dual motor badge. Is that considered rework?

 

[DaveT]

Just as note: January is in the next 8 months too.

True, but when's the last time Tesla actually delivered something ahead of time?

 

[tivoboy]

I have spent over a minute tryingt to figure out what ROW stands for. Could it be Republic Of ???? Please, if you can spend 1 second next time typing out the words, it would save many others a lot of time.

I will try, but while drive 75 mph down 280 and trying to rea

I think i am missing something here. Can you point where Tesla performs this "rework"? Any address? Always ready to learn something new.

Tesla says labor hours have decreased by 30% on Model 3 production, reportedly had to ‘rework’ most cars in record week

 

[ggies07]

Actually, it looks more like Q2 next year for start of production of standard range Model 3.

Behind the Scenes at Tesla’s Gigafactory: Field Notes From Our Recent Visit

"Tesla will likely start producing the shorter-range Model 3 in the next eight months. Right now, they are focused on selling higher-margin cars where demand continues to exceed what is being produced."

Note: 8 months from end of August 2018, is end of April 2019... so Q2 2019 likely start of standard range Model 3, but ramp will likely be slow. So minimal standard range Model 3 deliveries in Q2 (maybe under 1000). So most standard Model 3 reservation holders will need to wait until second half of 2019 for delivery.

That makes no sense with the official site continuing to lower the time for the SR. It now says 4-7 months. If it really were not until 8 months from August, then I think it would say that on the site.

I took that quote to mean anywhere from now UP TO 8 months.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

See, lack of demand. I knew it would finally come out.

Headline: “Only 14% of reservation holders have even requested a test drive”

 

[oneday]

Excellent article! Wish they would have touched on the solar panels either being deployed or soon to be deployed, but oh well.

Speaking of that, there has been a lot of discussion about using BEV's in emergencies, specifically afterwards when power is down. Superchargers are awesome, but not worth much if there is no power flowing to them. Anybody know how the effort to deploy solar panels along with Powerpaks at the Supercharger stations is going?

When I stopped at kettleman city, there was a Tesla mobile service guy in there. He said the kettleman city Solar array was 400kW (I think) and offset 50% of all supercharging there.

 

[Starno]

Actually, it looks more like Q2 next year for start of production of standard range Model 3.

Behind the Scenes at Tesla’s Gigafactory: Field Notes From Our Recent Visit

"Tesla will likely start producing the shorter-range Model 3 in the next eight months. Right now, they are focused on selling higher-margin cars where demand continues to exceed what is being produced."

Note: 8 months from end of August 2018, is end of April 2019... so Q2 2019 likely start of standard range Model 3, but ramp will likely be slow. So minimal standard range Model 3 deliveries in Q2 (maybe under 1000). So most standard Model 3 reservation holders will need to wait until second half of 2019 for delivery.

What about European deliveries (no right steering wheel) ?

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Excellent article! Wish they would have touched on the solar panels either being deployed or soon to be deployed, but oh well.

Speaking of that, there has been a lot of discussion about using BEV's in emergencies, specifically afterwards when power is down. Superchargers are awesome, but not worth much if there is no power flowing to them. Anybody know how the effort to deploy solar panels along with Powerpaks at the Supercharger stations is going?

Gas stations don’t work very well when the power is out either...

 

[tivoboy]

It is usually written RoW but that has been used more than a couple of times on TMC er teslamotorsclub.com

It's a standard international business term.. but yes, typed probably best to use RoW. Siri doesn't like it when I say "all caps row", it won't parse out the O to be little o. So, i'll make a text replacement for "all caps row" to replace text ROW with RoW. That way when I'm driving (on autopilot of course!) and replying, it will be more clear to others.