TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[ZachF]

Does anyone have any clue why Bloomberg is predicting under 4k per week Model 3 production for the rest of September? I can find no other data to support this.

Because the Bloomberg model, while pretty accurate over long stretches is pretty noisy week to week.... They probably weren't making 6,000+ a week a few weeks ago either.

The good news is the the Bloomberg model is saying Tesla has already made 50,000 M3s so far this quarter, which is the lower end of their guidance (50-55k), two more weeks of 3.5k from that puts them above the upper end of their guidance.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Incorrect.

The seat is not against the back wall of the cab. You can walk behind it. See the pic below.

Nor is it designed solely for a single driver. There's a second showable seat. Again, see the pic below.

View attachment 334638

Reading his comment, I think you misunderstood. He said there's a single driver's seat *and* a jumper seat behind it, against the rear wall of the cab. The second seat you're mentioning is the same jumper seat he mentioned.

 

[beachbum77]

Incorrect.

The seat is not against the back wall of the cab. You can walk behind it. See the pic below.
ACH]

LOL... The JUMPSEAT is against the back wall. Read my post. I never said the driver's seat was.

 

[scaesare]

LOL... The JUMPSEAT is against the back wall. Read my post. I never said the driver's seat was.

Indeed. Apologies for the mis-read.

 

[MissAutobahn]

NOT funny. By this weekend people will lose their lives and $billions in damages will occur thanks to Florence possibly affecting my friends and family. Keep your off-color "humor" in Germany thank you.

You're welcome.
We all hope it will bring less damage as predicted, sure.
Maybe Dutch humour ist too dark

 

[MarcusMaximus]

LOL... The JUMPSEAT is against the back wall. Read my post. I never said the driver's seat was.

In fairness to @scaesare, while that was what you said, it didn't really make sense in context. If the Tesla Semi is designed only for a single driver, then there'd be no reason to have that rear seat at all. It's clearly designed to support either one driver or a team/couple.

 

[beachbum77]

In fairness to @scaesare, while that was what you said, it didn't really make sense in context. If the Tesla Semi is designed only for a single driver, then there'd be no reason to have that rear seat at all. It's clearly designed to support either one driver or a team/couple.

No it is not to support a team. It is a DOT requirement. My comment made perfect sense (in context or otherwise) if you have ever been a commercial driver. Each truck must have a way to check out new drivers by a chief or instructor so a second seat is mandatory.

Trust me no one will want to sit in that jumpseat for very long. Our company King Air has one that pulls out behind and in between the pilot seats. Jumpseats are the MOST uncomfortable seat you will probably ever sit in because of their vertical backs when mounted to a wall. Ask flight attendants how much they like their seats on your next commercial flight.

 

[lunitiks]

In fairness to @ME!!! Who gives a rats testicule. Semi’s great. Nickola’s great. Great! Now move on. Market action

 

[tivoboy]

Does anyone have any clue why Bloomberg is predicting under 4k per week Model 3 production for the rest of September? I can find no other data to support this.

There have been other reports that the 5K reached once hasn't been reached on a regular basis again. Some weeks only reaching 3400, closer to 4K. So, I imagine BB is thinking they may average closer to 4K than 5K.

I'm not sure we are really going to know for sure till ER and even then probably not till after (to let the smoke clear a bit)

 

[MarcusMaximus]

In fairness to @ME!!! Who gives a rats testicule. Semi’s great. Nickola’s great. Great! Now move on. Market action

Sure, ok. Anybody else find it eerie how AAPL and TSLA are usually mirror images of each other on the daily graph? I've noticed this trend over the last few weeks and it's particularly pronounced today. Bums me out, since my two main investments are AAPL and TSLA. Every day is a mixed bag.

 

[beachbum77]

Sure, ok. Anybody else find it eerie how AAPL and TSLA are usually mirror images of each other on the daily graph? I've noticed this trend over the last few weeks and it's particularly pronounced today. Bums me out, since my two main investments are AAPL and TSLA. Every day is a mixed bag.

Same pool of investors moving money between them?

 

[bdy0627]

There have been other reports that the 5K reached once hasn't been reached on a regular basis again. Some weeks only reaching 3400, closer to 4K. So, I imagine BB is thinking they may average closer to 4K than 5K.

I'm not sure we are really going to know for sure till ER and even then probably not till after (to let the smoke clear a bit)

Seems like they guided pretty realistically for Q3, expecting not to be averaging 5,000/week through the quarter, but rather closer to 4,000/wk. They are having significant delivery bottleneck issues at the current level of production that they need to work through. I'm glad they appear to be on track for meeting guidance this quarter with such staggering growth.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Seems like they guided pretty realistically for Q3, expecting not to be averaging 5,000/week through the quarter, but rather closer to 4,000/wk. They are having significant delivery bottleneck issues at the current level of production that they need to work through. I'm glad they appear to be on track for meeting guidance this quarter with such staggering growth.

Given the difficulty they're having with deliveries, it'd be a terrible idea to continue ramping production, and I'm glad they apparently abandoned that goal. Once deliveries pick up enough to address current production, then it'll make sense to continue the ramp.

 

[tivoboy]

Seems like they guided pretty realistically for Q3, expecting not to be averaging 5,000/week through the quarter, but rather closer to 4,000/wk.

I still think we'll see a "beat" of the IMHO conservative 50-55K estimate number, but then the details will come out. Personally, I'm LESS interested in PRODUCTION numbers and more interested in DELIVERY numbers and ORDERS.

I'll /well know more then/later but one of my after hours ER (earnings) trading thesis (i'm up to six now) is for a significant pop AH during that initial reporting and depending on where it lands ( ya'll not going to like this) it would be a sell. Of course depends on where we are at that time. If we are HERE (290$) then probably a pop to 305-310$ would be maybe not warranted but not excessive. IF we're closer to 320$ by ER (probably less than 20% chance of that) then a 6-8% pop ER would be a short term sell IMHO.

My conundrum is, I'm pretty certain I'm not going to be called away of the remaining position next week (sept 292.5 calls @10.20$) but IF we get up over 300$ and if premiums for ATM (at the money) calls get back to near 8-10% for Oct expiration (or heck, even weekly) I want to be able to sell covered calls again ATM or slightly above 310-325$ ranges prior to ER . I'd LOVE to see us back to a solid 308-310 in the next 10-15 trading days with Oct calls for 310$ strike at 25+$.. Baby needs another M3.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Given the difficulty they're having with deliveries, it'd be a terrible idea to continue ramping production, and I'm glad they apparently abandoned that goal. Once deliveries pick up enough to address current production, then it'll make sense to continue the ramp.

I think deliveries will be more managable next quarter. The issue with this quarter is that Tesla needs to empty the pipeline to a degree, to be able to achieve profitability. Next quarter, they probably won't need to empty the pipeline to achieve profitability. That means a more even load on delivery centers.

I think the guidance for Q4 will be something like 70k production, 60k deliveries.

 

[wipster]

I thought I did (put in a market order for this morning), but apparently I failed to confirm the order

Oh well

Damn... hope you didn't think you bought a lot!

 

[tivoboy]

TSLA up 0.26% today
NIO up 62.0% today. ;-) Its a palindrome!

as per model exited 20% of NIO

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Hi. Elon replied on Twitter to that suggestion. He said the antenna would need to be the size of a pizza box, so he expects that StarLink will mostly be used for fixed bases.

Of course, SkyNet, that's a whole different movie...

If you really wanted to you could built them into the hood (being about the only place on top of the vehicle that isn't mostly glass) but you'd have to switch to using materials RF transparent at the relevant frequencies and as such it would be a complex solution that isn't much needed as most places have cellular coverage. But it is technically feasible, and as such it might some day happen. Hence I would not be surprised, versus I am expecting

 

[BioSehnsucht]

I don't know, I kind of like the concept of the cars being delivered by giant industrial robots

(Whirrrr!!!!!!) "YOUR VEHICLE HAS ARRIVED. PLEASE SIGN HERE." (Whirrrr!!!!!!!)

I'm imagining a giant Fanuc arm with an end effector designed to hold a regular pen signing the documents in all the places where normally a Tesla rep would. Use another giant Fanuc with a page turning effector to flip pages ...

 

[humbaba]

Damn... hope you didn't think you bought a lot!

A lot for me. And after the initial surge it isn't so interesting (since I'm not really wanting to invest in them, was just looking for a quick trade). But such is life. I guess it means I have some dry powder for $TSLA but the stock price isn't dropping enough to convince me. Not that I *want* it to go down, but it doing so helps convince me to fork over.

[edit: dang, it was ~$7.80 when I found out, but I didn't as I didn't expect it to have the legs it has proven this morning so I passed on it. Double oh well.]