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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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I've been noticing this trend amongst my friends. The ones that have always been into cars are not into Teslas. Anyone else notice this trend? I've never been much of a car guy until Tesla came around.
"Car guys" typically know most everything about how their cars work and pride themselves in being able to fix them. They get together on weekends to restore old cars to near-original condition. They go to events to show off their handiwork.

EVs rob them of all that enjoyment.
 
"Car guys" typically know most everything about how their cars work and pride themselves in being able to fix them. They get together on weekends to restore old cars to near-original condition. They go to events to show off their handiwork.

EVs rob them of all that enjoyment.

Tell that to Jason Hughes.
 
I will caution that I currently believe the bottlenecks on production are not in final assembly, or paint, or body. So they won't be able to maintain 8000/week until they fix bottlenecks further back in the supply chain. That said, I am also certain that those bottlnecks are currently being fixed (and may all be fixed by the end of the month).

Well, the last 24 hours saw about 4000 VIN registrations, estimated to all be AWD, so to the extent that AWD production was a bottleneck (which you have previously indicated), you seem to be right that this bottleneck has been resolved or will be so by the end of this month.

Model 3 VINs on Twitter
 
"Car guys" typically know most everything about how their cars work and pride themselves in being able to fix them. They get together on weekends to restore old cars to near-original condition. They go to events to show off their handiwork.

EVs rob them of all that enjoyment.

Most cars past 1995 basically require you to be a software engineer to be able to tinker with properly. These guys are still pissed off about fuel injection and turbochargers. So time has left these guys behind already, forget about Tesla.
 
I stood in Boston stored for 1 hours on 3/31 (??), and am still waiting, patiently, for my SR. But if I had to choose between Tesla being dead or delay delivery of SR, the choice is obvious.

1 hour? I got to mall in Bethesda, Md @8:30 am (i'll be early, nope, already several hundred there) so i waited till end of line @ 12:39pm to register, chatting with folks in line. (excellent fun for very last day at work before retirement)

Slackers!

I left the house at three in the morning, and got in line at 4 o'clock AM.
Even then I was the sixth person in line.
 
I’m noticing more and more car guys coming around actually. Also, obvisouly plenty of non motor heads love what Tesla represents are bing drawn in
1. I am a total "car guy", I was a mechanic for years for VW/Porsche in the USA, and Renault Citroen in Switzerland. Some of my friends still bring their ICE cars over to me when they have an issue. I look under the hood and I am like "What the F#%ck is all this cr@p!"

2. I had a call a few days ago from a friend who is a total BMW/Porsche guy. A long time climate denier as well. He had recently tried a friend of his Model 3 RWD. That did it! He immediately ordered a Model 3 Performance and is shopping PV systems. He's already flirting with selling his ICE cars, and he does not even have his Model 3 yet! I told him to just get it over with and get an X for his wife. Knowing this friend well, I'd say he will be a huge proponent in the near future, EV (Tesla) will change his life as it has for many of us here. He's already called me at least 5 times since to "talk Tesla".
 
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anybody gone to any of the National Drive Electric Week and can report back on folks there from eyewitness?
they will have statistics soon, hopefully, but....
I did two events. Solvang on Saturday, Oxnard on Sunday. Both very well attended as far as EV's. Many Model 3's, a few i3, a few Leaf's, a few Bolt, a few Spark EV (I like these!), and of course plenty of X's and S's. Solvang is a tourist town north of Santa Barbara. We were located on the main drag so we got lots of people who were just passing through. Meaning they did not come to the event specifically but were new to EV's.

The Oxnard event was larger and it had many manufacturers letting people test drive including Tesla with a Performance Model 3. The Oxnard event was much better attended than Solvang, but it was out of the way do that the folks that came had made it their destination. I knda' preferred the Solvang show in the way it was exposing new people to the world of EV's as opposed to Oxnard's mostly "preaching to the choir".

A few pictures from both shows here: Log into Facebook | Facebook
 
I am a car guy in that I taught auto tech and have wrenched race cars including a formula 5000 in 1972. I saw the future immediately when Tesla became available and now own MS vin 23**. I have a friend who could well afford any Tesla and owns 3 Mustangs of various performance pedigrees. I finally got him to take a test drive in a new S. He liked it but will not buy one. He said "it's not my dream". I think that is the problem for many old gas owners. They can't let go of the past and they are trapped in a hardware dream rather than a performance based dream. Those dreams die hard and I believe are the reason we see such nutty prices being paid for old muscle cars which were junk when new have even less value on merit now.
 
1. I am a total "car guy", I was a mechanic for years for VW/Porsche in the USA, and Renault Citroen in Switzerland. Some of my friends still bring their ICE cars over to me when they have an issue. I look under the hood and I am like "What the F#%ck is all this cr@p!"

2. I had a call a few days ago from a friend who is a total BMW/Porsche guy. A long time climate denier as well. He had recently tried a friend of his Model 3 RWD. That did it! He immediately ordered a Model 3 Performance and is shopping PV systems. He's already flirting with selling his ICE cars, and he does not even have his Model 3 yet! I told him to just get it over with and get an X for his wife. Knowing this friend well, I'd say he will be a huge proponent in the near future, EV (Tesla) will change his life as it has for many of us here. He's already called me at least 5 times since to "talk Tesla".

Your friend should sell his ICE cars ASAP, it will be harder to sell next year. More people will be selling used BMW/Porsche, less people will buy, especially after the $35k Model 3 is available.
 
Slackers!

I left the house at three in the morning, and got in line at 4 o'clock AM.
Even then I was the sixth person in line.

2 nights in a tent in subzero temperatures. Still no delivery date People way behind me already have VINs....

upload_2018-9-15_12-42-11.jpeg
 
I am a car guy in that I taught auto tech and have wrenched race cars including a formula 5000 in 1972. I saw the future immediately when Tesla became available and now own MS vin 23**. I have a friend who could well afford any Tesla and owns 3 Mustangs of various performance pedigrees. I finally got him to take a test drive in a new S. He liked it but will not buy one. He said "it's not my dream". I think that is the problem for many old gas owners. They can't let go of the past and they are trapped in a hardware dream rather than a performance based dream. Those dreams die hard and I believe are the reason we see such nutty prices being paid for old muscle cars which were junk when new have even less value on merit now.
drop one of these chassis on a Tesla skateboard (Excaliber, or maybe a Duesenberg)
1280px-Excalibur_Series_III_Roadster_SS_in_Paris.jpg
 
I've been noticing this trend amongst my friends. The ones that have always been into cars are not into Teslas. Anyone else notice this trend? I've never been much of a car guy until Tesla came around.

A couple of reasons I think:

  • Early EVs kinda sucked, which any 'car guy' would instinctively know, and come out prejudiced against Tesla, especially when Tesla is supported by clearly non-car-guy fanboys...
  • 'Non car guys/gasl' on the other hand just judge the car based on capabilities and look and are easier to convince - contemporary EVs are better for like 90%+ of the use-cases.
  • A lot of the early anti-Tesla FUD was targeted at 'car guys', the 'kill Tesla in the cradle' kind of FUD. Most of that FUD came from car magazines and car forums - the places that 'car guys' would frequent, to form an early negative opinion about Tesla. For brand recognition ignorance is often better than being known negatively...
  • Model S/X was also way out of the price range of most 'car guys', which to set the stage for a kind of blue-collar versus white-collar cultural polarization ... The Model 3 is going to change this.

BTW., I actually think that once the Tesla FUD fades out 'car enthusiasts' are going to embrace EVs big time. Check out the 'Teslonda' project:


When was the last time you saw a high-end ICE power train being moved into a low end ICE car chassis, with the injector from a third ICE model, and then redo the engine control electronics yourself? Because that's what Teslonda really is: Tesla powertrain in a Honda chassis, using Bolt batteries plus their own electronics based on a Raspberry PI ...

How cool is that?

EVs are infinitely more tweakable than modern ICE cars.

BTW., this kind of negative prejudice against Tesla is why I think Tesla has only scratched the surface of EV demand, even in the U.S. Once Tesla is broadly seen as the American success story it really is, Tesla won't be able to make as many cars as there's demand for, for like 10 years.
 
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I've been noticing this trend amongst my friends. The ones that have always been into cars are not into Teslas. Anyone else notice this trend? I've never been much of a car guy until Tesla came around.

They are like legacy manufacturers. Cannot sign up for the new and better without destroying their business. Very few entities like to reinvent themselves on any basis. Especially if it entails any self destruction, creative as it may be.
 
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Lots of negative delivery experiences will hit the headlines eventually. It’s important to keep in mind that these are growing pains. I’d be shocked if any significant # decide to not get a Tesla due to a bad delivery experience. Plus, we don’t hear of the thousands of good experiences each week.

Next will be the service centers. I can’t imagine Tesla is going to be able to keep up with the service demand, not to mention parts availability for the body shops.

With TSLA, it’s so crucial to decipher what is fundamentally material to the company, and what is not. Complexities with the X ramp was.....Elon taking a toke is not.
Has anyone ever experienced an amazing delivery experience with a traditional auto dealer, the haggling, the upselling, the paper work, the multiple people involved to completing the sale transaction? My experience picking up my M3 at Mississauga International Convention Ctr. (Toronto, ON, Canada) was amazing. Will every delivery experience match mine? No. But without doubt, Tesla deliveries will generally be far better received that that of traditional auto dealers.
 
Yeah, I will never forget walking into a Chevy dealership to purchase a brand new Volt. I was already sold. I left empty-handed because they were so obstinate about putting me through the ringer no matter what. Ran out of time and had to go pick up my kids despite having budgeted three hours to pay cash for a new car. They knew I had to go as well. All I wanted to do was sign and pay.

Awesome that it went the way it did. Make mine Tesla.

The wave grows each day now. The legacy manufacturers are on shifting ground and many have not even noticed based on their actions. Things can get ugly real fast when educated buyers start thinking about resale value five years down the line....and suddenly realize that it may not look good at all.
 
Is the price of TSLA making you blue? Nobody said being green would be easy, just ask Kermit.
Still scratching my head on the latest drag back to $300. All the negative bias articles from reputable? news outlets. I just don't get it. I must be drinking that Tesla Kool-Aid. And at those times, like today, went with the family for an hour long ride in our M3, and then I get it. I truly get it. The others will come around. Time will surely tell. My coolest moment was passing another red M3 with a large red canoe on top going to cottage country. Only toping that would have been a Tesla surfboard. Priceless.

I don't normally make price predictions, however IMOH I believe $300 will hold as the bottom and we are in for major upturn.
Quite the dip last week,however IMHO I believe anything under $300 is ridiculously cheap for TSLA. Reporting from Paid Media Sources (Lets call them PMS for short) are starting to turn positive to reflect the real news, what is actually happening and can no longer be ignored. Due to the significant amount of Tesla FUD from PMS, the rebound when the general populous figures out the truth will be absolutely huge.
 
I think that is the problem for many old gas owners. They can't let go of the past and they are trapped in a hardware dream rather than a performance based dream. Those dreams die hard and I believe are the reason we see such nutty prices being paid for old muscle cars which were junk when new have even less value on merit now.

In my opinion, a Porsche 911 or Viper are popular cars because they are fast, and that's the reason people love them. When electric cars are clearly faster and cheaper than gasoline cars, this will change. I don't believe many will still buy BMW M3s when Tesla M3Ps are cheaper and faster.

The wave grows each day now. The legacy manufacturers are on shifting ground and many have not even noticed based on their actions. Things can get ugly real fast when educated buyers start thinking about resale value five years down the line....and suddenly realize that it may not look good at all.

I'm quite certain that the legacy manufacturers know quite well what is happening, and that they are in panic mode right now. It's just that they can't do anything about it. The only thing they can do is ramp up development as fast as possible (e. g. 6.1 billion € R&D for electric cars at BMW last year) and slowing down Tesla. That's my explanation for why shorts sell most when the price is low and buy back when the price is high.
 
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