Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Status
Not open for further replies.
I mean, is this really the best the shorts have?

Iconic member of Detroit’s old guard says Tesla’s ‘headed to the graveyard’

"Tesla has no ... tech advantage, no software advantage, no battery advantage. No advantages whatsoever."

I get the hands over the eyes and the ears sealed with wax while going "la lalalalallala", but... it just isn't compelling.

The zombie says the living have no advantage over it -- but they seem awfully interested in sucking the life from the living.
He’s been saying that for years. All he knows is how to leverage a truck platform to pay for the others.
 
That always puzzled me. Why would they use cash to pay that off if they don't have to? Tesla spent a lot of money buying a hedge just so that they could pay off the converts in non dilutive equity -- this is described in the prospectus and in each 10-K.

I wonder if the hedge transaction can be settled either to get non-dilutive equity to use to settle the notes, or can be separately settled to generate cash that is used to pay off the notes. ? Anyone have any informed speculation on that?

How does the hedge work with paying off the notes with internally generated cash flow?


The hedge strike is at the initial conversion ration --$359.87 If it's below the strike, the IB hedge writers pocket the net premiums paid (they learned an expensive lesson with the 2018 notes)
 
It's really the same reasoning as stock buybacks (which some people are advocating for Tesla). If you (the management) believe that the stock is underpriced, better to use the cash than to issue shares which would dilute all shareholders. There is a tradeoff though, for a company like Tesla, the management has to take into account what they could use that extra cash for, and what the ROI would be in the future. The most optimistic thing about them wanting to pay cash is that it means they expect more cash flow than they can reasonably invest in growing the company, so they certainly don't need to raise more. I do believe the statement that Tesla expects to be cash flow positive for the foreseeable future.
Trust me they need the cash and will use it to pay down debt that is coming and to pay off suppliers whom they pushed back on. The bills do come due. There is no surplus for a stock buyback.
 
I mean, is this really the best the shorts have?

Iconic member of Detroit’s old guard says Tesla’s ‘headed to the graveyard’

"Tesla has no ... tech advantage, no software advantage, no battery advantage. No advantages whatsoever."

I get the hands over the eyes and the ears sealed with wax while going "la lalalalallala", but... it just isn't compelling.

The zombie says the living have no advantage over it -- but they seem awfully interested in sucking the life from the living.

From that article:

“At last check, Tesla shares were rebounding a bit, up 3% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) enjoyed a 200-point rally.”

NASDAQ, which Tesla is actually listed on, is and has been down today. This is the kind of misleading BS we talk about in current media.
 
It's called electrek.

I had once the same opinion but since about a month it changed. Electrek is not any more what I would call a balanced and on facts based media for me. At least as of now. I followed them since years and did listen to almost every weekly podcast. IOW there is a lot of material I can relate to.

Since a while Fred tend to post headlines that look like hit pieces. Fred's reasoning is lately very much driven by personal points of views and information without source but just hearsay or his believe.

Also some information they posted could be proven to be wrong with a quick internet search. Finally they blocked a couple of members of TMC that I recognized as balanced and down to earth.

Last not least there seem to be a tendency to bring everything out as quick as possible instead to do some thorough decent research first. That research is what I expect from a decent journalist or blogger. For me the one or the other is not different. I don't give a blogger a free pass just because he is a blogger.

Finally if you write something that was proven to be wrong I expect that people are mature enough to acknowledge it and say it loud and clear. I did not hear that one time from Fred.

So, to summarize Elektrek has been pretty disappointing for me lately and I hope Fred and Seth find a track back to their previous good work.
 
It's really the same reasoning as stock buybacks (which some people are advocating for Tesla). If you (the management) believe that the stock is underpriced, better to use the cash than to issue shares which would dilute all shareholders. There is a tradeoff though, for a company like Tesla, the management has to take into account what they could use that extra cash for, and what the ROI would be in the future. The most optimistic thing about them wanting to pay cash is that it means they expect more cash flow than they can reasonably invest in growing the company, so they certainly don't need to raise more. I do believe the statement that Tesla expects to be cash flow positive for the foreseeable future.

But that ignores the hedge. They were never going to issue new equity to use in the conversion of the notes -- they spent $186 million buying something like call options to use equity to settle the notes without issuing new equity.

"DESCRIPTION OF CONVERTIBLE NOTE HEDGE AND WARRANT TRANSACTIONS

In connection with the pricing of the notes, we intend to enter into convertible note hedge transactions with one or more of the underwriters or their respective affiliates or other financial institutions (the “hedge counterparties”). The convertible note hedge transactions will cover, subject to anti-dilution adjustments substantially similar to those applicable to the notes, the number of shares of our common stock that are initially underlying the 2019 notes and the 2021 notes. Concurrently with entering into the convertible note hedge transactions, we also intend to enter into warrant transactions with the hedge counterparties relating to the same number of shares of our common stock, with a strike price of $512.6562, with respect to the warrants relating to the 2019 notes, and a strike price of $560.6388, with respect to the warrants relating to the 2021 notes, in each case subject to customary anti-dilution adjustments. [which can be lowered as discussed]

We intend to use approximately $186.3 million of the net proceeds from this offering to pay the cost of the convertible note hedge transactions (after such cost is partially offset by the proceeds to us from the warrant transactions). If the underwriters exercise their option to purchase additional notes, we may sell additional warrants and use a portion of the proceeds from the sale of the additional notes, together with the proceeds from the sale of the additional warrants, to enter into additional convertible note hedge transactions.

The convertible note hedge transactions are expected generally to reduce the potential dilution and/or offset potential cash payments in excess of the principal amount upon conversion of the 2019 notes and the 2021 notes in the event that the market price per share of our common stock, as measured under the terms of the related convertible note hedge transactions for the 2019 notes and the 2021 notes, is greater than the strike price of the related convertible note hedge transactions for the 2019 notes and the 2021 notes, which, for each convertible note hedge transaction, initially corresponds to the conversion price of the notes relating to such convertible note hedge transaction, and is subject to anti-dilution adjustments substantially similar to those applicable to the conversion rate of the notes. If, however, the market price per share of our common stock, as measured under the terms of the warrant transactions relating to the 2019 notes and the 2021 notes, exceeds the strike price of the warrants relating to the 2019 notes or the 2021 notes, as the case may be, there would nevertheless be dilution to the extent that such market price exceeds the strike price of the warrants relating to the 2019 notes or the 2021 notes, as the case may be.

We will not be required to make any cash payments to the hedge counterparties upon the exercise of the options that are a part of the convertible note hedge transactions, but will be entitled to receive from them a number of shares of our common stock and/or an amount of cash generally based on the amount by which the market price per share of our common stock, as measured under the terms of the convertible note hedge transactions for the 2019 notes and the 2021 notes, is greater than the strike price of the convertible note hedge transactions for the 2019 notes or the 2021 notes during the relevant valuation period under the relevant convertible note hedge transactions. Additionally, if the market price per share of our common stock, as measured under the terms of the warrant transactions relating to the 2019 notes and the 2021 notes, exceeds the strike price of the warrants relating to the 2019 notes or the 2021 notes, as the case may be, during the relevant measurement period at the maturity of the warrants (i.e., on the applicable expiration dates), we will owe the hedge counterparties a number of shares of our common stock in an amount based on the excess of such market price per share of our common stock over the strike price of the warrants relating to the 2019 notes or the 2021 notes, as the case may be.

In connection with establishing their initial hedge of the convertible note hedge and warrant transactions, the hedge counterparties or their affiliates expect to enter into various derivative transactions with respect to our common stock concurrently with or shortly after the pricing of the notes, including with certain investors in the notes. This activity could increase (or reduce the size of any decrease in) the market price of our common stock or the notes at that time.

In addition, the hedge counterparties or their affiliates may modify their hedge positions by entering into or unwinding various derivatives with respect to our common stock and/or purchasing or selling our common stock or other securities of ours in secondary market transactions following the pricing of the notes and prior to the maturity of the 2019 notes and the 2021 notes (and are likely to do so during any observation period related to a conversion of notes). This activity could also cause or prevent an increase or a decrease in the market price of our common stock or the notes, which could affect your ability to convert the notes and, to the extent the activity occurs during any observation period related to a conversation of notes, it could affect the amount and value of the consideration that you will receive upon conversion of the notes.

The convertible note hedge transactions and the warrant transactions are separate transactions entered into by us with the hedge counterparties, are not part of the terms of the 2019 notes or the 2021 notes and will not change the holders’ rights under the notes or the Trustee’s rights or duties under the indenture. As a holder of the notes, you will not have any rights with respect to the convertible note hedge transactions or the warrant transactions.

For a discussion of the potential impact of any market or other activity by the hedge counterparties or their affiliates in connection with these convertible note hedge and warrant transactions, see “Underwriting—Convertible Note Hedge and Warrant Transactions” and “Risk Factors—Risks Related to the Notes—The Convertible Note Hedge and Warrant Transactions May Affect the Value of the Notes and Our Common Stock”.
 
I think Elon's re-tweet of CNBC is the cause of the pop - not really the actions of a man under stress, I'd say...

upload_2018-9-19_20-58-4.png
 

Attachments

  • upload_2018-9-19_20-57-19.png
    upload_2018-9-19_20-57-19.png
    121.2 KB · Views: 78
It seems that # of shares shorted is capped at 35.5M. Any idea why it never went higher?

I think the all time high was slightly above 39 million, so it can certainly go higher. The apparent cap of the past couple of of months of trading might be indicative of the group of shorts not broadening over a certain level.

This might have changed this month: the various negative news must have convinced value shorts that they are right, all the right kind of noises were made: 'fraud', 'Elon unstable', 'criminal', 'losses', 'graveyard'. If you were convinced before that Tesla is a shorting opportunity there's little reason to believe otherwise today - and the recent step drops might also have convinced quant shorts and more technical traders.

Altogether it's a pretty explosive scenario I think, for both shorts and longs: very high pressure, a loaded spring, a barrel full of high explosives, etc. etc.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.