humbaba
sleeping until $7000
I think it should be "Bob Lulz" -- as in "anonymous" doing it for the lulz.
As to the rest: rats fleeing a sinking ship, casting aspersions at hovercraft going by
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I think it should be "Bob Lulz" -- as in "anonymous" doing it for the lulz.
As to the rest: rats fleeing a sinking ship, casting aspersions at hovercraft going by
Wonder if he bought back in after the bankruptcy? What happens if in a few years those electric compliance cars sold at a loss that nobody wants are all that people want?
mickificki
Member
Paging idiot wooloomooloo, come in idiot....
/mic
/mic
And not abitrageurs playing the volatility with the converts? They'll have a windfall if the BoD decides to increase the conversion ratio for the 2019s to conserve cash.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Yeah, I was thinking about that too: but it would have been risky either way, the FUD machine would have blown it out of proportion.
Yesterday was good timing in that Q3 deliveries are only ~8 trading days away, and every sign from Tesla so far seems to be signalling that they are not afraid of those numbers.
Shorts should have leaked this while the stock was down at the $250 levels after the Chief Accounting Officer departure news - they could have lied about it as if the 'criminal inquiry' was somehow related to the CAO leaving just weeks into the job. That might have broken the price through $250, finally allowing Chanos & co to exit his short position with minor losses ...
But I'm glad that shorts are incompetent not just in valuing companies, but sometimes in utilizing FUD as well.
Well, I can spell SMARTA$$. Oh wait ...
Word on the ground here in Denver is that they are delivering 40+ vehicles/day right now, and have 180+ scheduled for Saturday. That is a *huge* number. Like, triple what i would have guessed our delivery center would handle on a fairly busy day. And this is *not* the final Saturday of the quarter. I've also seen several local folks get their calls in the past couple of days scheduling deliveries late next week or weekend and talk of our local Tesla Energy team being pulled into deliveries. This jives well with Kimbal Musk's confidence on CNBC yesterday. I'm pretty sure our local center has never done anything close to what they're doing now. It sure seems that this quarter is going to end on a very high note.
Not an advice, as usual. Just passing on what my birdies are singing.
Not an advice, as usual. Just passing on what my birdies are singing.
I'll admit I was one of the folks who thought Elon broke down and mentally ill, unable to make sound judgement after Joe Rogan's interview. it turned out my judgement (of Elon's mental state) was not sound, not his. this costed me $$$ for selling everything at the bottom.
So yeah, he is definitely no longer under stress and so I was back in the game with more leverage than before. If you watched the SpaceX presentation recently, you'd agree it looked like he's totally back and no longer lacking sleep...this could mean Production hell is sort of over, delivery hell is on but logistic is a much, much easier problem to deal with.
What I think is, short term, TSLA @$300 is cheap considering tesla has been trading mostly between ~$275 - $365 for the past year, and IMO it should run up until delivery date at least. long term,$300 is super cheap, with massive revenue growth and soon, margin growth (M3 from 0% to 15% this quarter and higher next Q, this is huge), and on the cusp of being profitable every quarter. Starting next quarter if things go as planned, the main thesis of the shorts, bob lutz and the likes "losing money every care they sell" would be crushed into pieces. Also, taking private at $420 was Elon's last attempt in a hurry because he knew TSLA will zoom past that very soon.
neroden: Great idea. Based upon my 10 years in govt and 30 harassing govt I think a "Tip" to the SEC from one or two private retail investors (as discussed above by KarenRei) is unlikely to get any attention. However a well-thought out more formal complaint signed by many may at least garner some attention. It also strikes me that the circumstantial case is strengthened by a pattern. What I am going to suggest to Int Prof will require some help to strengthen the complaint. I hope you can find a little time to help.
Wonder if Chanos and Goldman analyst will be splitting an order of nachos tonight somewhere in midtown as they plot a “research” note to help keep the party under 300.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Dunno - I think the 2021 and 2022 notes ($1,380m and $977m) are too far out to be effective hedges - the notes are not equivalent to American-style call options, they are European-style: in that they can only be called/converted near the maturation date, not at an arbitrary date. This reduces their utility as call-option hedges significantly I think.
The $920m March 2019 notes are probably close enough to be effective hedges, but that's only about 2.5m shares if we assume that 100% of note owners use them as hedges - which seems unlikely to me.
Put differently: March 2019 call options at a $360 strike price are worth more, and they currently are trading for around $25 per contract. 2.5m shares are about 25k contracts, which even if you increase price to say $30 by buying them cost less than $1m - $2m tops. And those are more useful American style call options than the notes are!
I.e. I think the 'short position hedge' nature of the convertible notes is overrated, and I don't think note holders are using them as such. They are using them as regular collateral, and they are trading them for the equity bonus they are going to pay above $360.
Unless I'm missing something important .... I'm totally speculating here.
y Molly Smith
(Bloomberg) -- Bets on the creditworthiness of Elon Musk’s
Tesla Inc. have largely gone one direction of late. But whether
you love the credit or hate it, it’s about to get easier to
express your view.
* Tesla is slated to join the 100 speculative-grade borrowers in
Series 31 of the Markit CDX North American High Yield Index, a
credit-default swaps benchmark that’s used by everyone from
hedge-fund traders to mutual-fund managers to wager on the junk-
bond market. The new index -- see the full list of expected
changes here -- begins trading Sept. 27, according to index
administrator IHS Markit.
* Being included in the index often boosts liquidity in
contracts tied to the underlying companies. “You’ll get a bigger
audience looking at the Tesla name, either on the short or long
side,” says David Norris, head of U.S. credit at TwentyFour
Asset Management.
* Since trading in Tesla CDS began earlier this year, the market
has ballooned. Net wagers more than doubled since June to $263
million, according to ISDA. By comparison, there’s more than
$41.2 billion of net notional trades tied to the latest version
of the CDX high-yield index.
* Lately, trading in Tesla CDS has reflected increased worry
that the company will struggle to manage its $11.5 billion debt
load. The upfront cost of five-year insurance via Tesla CDS
jumped to 21 points last week and were quoted at about 19 points
Tuesday, CMA prices show.
* DATA POINTS
(Bloomberg) -- Bets on the creditworthiness of Elon Musk’s
Tesla Inc. have largely gone one direction of late. But whether
you love the credit or hate it, it’s about to get easier to
express your view.
* Tesla is slated to join the 100 speculative-grade borrowers in
Series 31 of the Markit CDX North American High Yield Index, a
credit-default swaps benchmark that’s used by everyone from
hedge-fund traders to mutual-fund managers to wager on the junk-
bond market. The new index -- see the full list of expected
changes here -- begins trading Sept. 27, according to index
administrator IHS Markit.
* Being included in the index often boosts liquidity in
contracts tied to the underlying companies. “You’ll get a bigger
audience looking at the Tesla name, either on the short or long
side,” says David Norris, head of U.S. credit at TwentyFour
Asset Management.
* Since trading in Tesla CDS began earlier this year, the market
has ballooned. Net wagers more than doubled since June to $263
million, according to ISDA. By comparison, there’s more than
$41.2 billion of net notional trades tied to the latest version
of the CDX high-yield index.
* Lately, trading in Tesla CDS has reflected increased worry
that the company will struggle to manage its $11.5 billion debt
load. The upfront cost of five-year insurance via Tesla CDS
jumped to 21 points last week and were quoted at about 19 points
Tuesday, CMA prices show.
* DATA POINTS
Don TLR
Active Member
Someone local mentioned picking up her Model 3 and the Delivery Specialist said they had 80 scheduled for this past Saturday..
How many ICE dealers combined would it take to sell 80 new cars in one day???
I can't wait to see the numbers that Kimbal was talking about.. Lutz may be eating some crow..
How many ICE dealers combined would it take to sell 80 new cars in one day???
I can't wait to see the numbers that Kimbal was talking about.. Lutz may be eating some crow..
more sabotage?
Well, what's the alternative?
Wouldn't the scale of the shorting then imply a lot of dumb money out there combined with widespread dereliction of duty by risk managers at brokerages?
Oh.
I see.
So, that would result in an aggressive response from the grown ups to try to save things, which we might be seeing now?
And then the question is, which brokerages to short??
Am I catching on?
It's confusing how they are listed, 25 per share, so 25x100 per contract.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
my idea behind buying January 2021 $400 calls is to buy insurance in case $tsla SP runs up crazy and several fold sometime over the next 28 months or so
think that can not happen?
crazier things have happened
$TLRY ran up from $20 to $300 over the last 7 weeks thanks to short sellers
$TSLA can do the same maybe not of the same magnitude
it is coming sometime over the next couple of years
think that can not happen?
crazier things have happened
$TLRY ran up from $20 to $300 over the last 7 weeks thanks to short sellers
$TSLA can do the same maybe not of the same magnitude
it is coming sometime over the next couple of years
Yeah and TLRY is all going up in smoke!
So you're saying an executive who should have had a net worth of at least tens of millions had so little faith in his own company, he sold it out for $131k?
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