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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Interesting that after your extreme and obviously emotional post you say only extremists are left on the board :rolleyes: Most of this board is well thought out and seems to have a better understanding of these events than you do. We see the SEC has a weak case and are trying to imply a violation where there was none, hence we agree with Musk's desire to fight this.
I know this. If Elon Musk tweeted he wanted his followers to jump off a cliff as a sign of loyalty, half the people on this board would be gone.
 
This.......on steroids. A $10B bet against Tesla is placed by the largest institutions. This bet that Tesla cannot produce will fail very visibly at the end of Q3......if not on Monday with an announcement of delivery numbers. Big Money calls the SEC for a lifeline that will allow them to pass their bets into the hands of smaller Short positions IN FULL by creating a mechanism (the lawsuit announcement) that dumps the share price enough for them to do so. The Short position on Monday morning will still be similar to what it was last week...........but it will be held by 'smaller hands' (not the President's smaller hands). And then Big Money will be buying like crazy to ride the price back up and crush the people that they handed their bag of 'stuff' to. This is really no different than 10 years ago, with the exception that 10 years ago GS torched Lehman Brothers (their competition). Next week they will torch their own followers. Greed has no shame. But it is a shame that Greed collects followers. And this next week may find many of those followers feeling a sense of shame.

The SEC announcement was literally made at the very last moment for it to have successfully bailed anyone out of a bad short bet before Oct 1st. That is why I see the SEC lawsuit itself as a dangerous bet. IMO the SEC will eventually do everything it can for this NOT to go to court, because like many others here I do not think that was the intention of filing the suit. But who wouldn't fully expect that Elon will do everything in his power to actually take this to court for the pain that it caused himself, his company, his employees, and every Long investor that he stood by and tried to protect when he finally decided not to go private. Protecting the banks that act recklessly appears to have only taught them they can continue to expect protection at the highest levels. Friday's price action adds fuel to Elon's case. A reversal next week that includes any gains by Big Money that held a Short Position as late as last week will only add further support.

I fully agree.

The only thing I can add is that in spite of the expected (close to 80k!) Q3 delivery number and its positive impact on Tesla's fundamentals, I am sure the stock price will not go up. On the contrary, it will drop.

I know this because I bought more shares on Friday and the stock price always drops right after I buy. :)

In fact, I should probably post here before my first sale, because surely then the SP will take off like the BFR...
 
I agree 100%, and in fact I'm counting on Elon doing just that! :cool:

When I wrote "no R&D vagaries" I meant the following:
  • Elon won't take a "bet the farm" risk ever again, like the fourth Falcon 1 launch attempt or the Model 3 introduced at a 500k/year capacity.
  • Elon & co are going to iterate the Dreadnought like they iterated the Falcon 9: with comparatively small, low risk steps, without risking the mission in any way.
  • Finally, he won't go to Wall Street for financing, but is going to use the considerable internal cash generation capability of Tesla (4-7 billion dollars in 2019 alone) to grow, combined with local non-recourse Gigafactory financing.
I.e. there won't be "R&D vagaries" that turn into an existential threat, like the speed of the Model 3 ramp-up turned into an existential threat.

This is what I meant - R&D won't stop - it will probably even accelerate.

Dammit! I thought I’d caught you and it was just my misunderstanding. I’ll get you next time:)
 
SEC is absolutely the reckless party in this.
Just pondering the day we live in, instead of being lemmings to bullshit headlines and talking heads, we can get the full legal filings at the convenience of our smartphones and decide for ourselves it's horseshit.

Planning on writing a letter to the SEC, cc my senator and rep. Any advice?
 
Planning on writing a letter to the SEC, cc my senator and rep. Any advice?

Seeing the Gorman statements, I'm pondering starting a thread on crowdsourcing his defense. There are lots tricky legal issues there and collecting all the relevant cases and other authority on the reckless standard in the second circuit can be used to satisfy the scienter requirement, or not, might be useful to both help the Latham and Brown and Rudnick teams as well as educate the SEC as to the weaknesses in their position (and encourage them to settle on terms that protect, rather than harm TSLA shareholders). It would also educate the press and pundits on appropriate talking points if they are inclined to point out the weaknesses in the SEC's case. I saw a CNBC anchor use almost some exact words to make the same somewhat obscure legal point that was made in this thread.
 
One of my biggest concerns right now is that Tesla has lost control of their own story. Their story is now told through the national media lens, and it looks ugly. Go to the Google News page and look at the national headlines. This is what most people see.

Most American don’t read on this forum, or Electrek, or really anything much past the headlines. Many will catch a snip of the news or CNBC before or after work, and then go about their lives. FUD has been a concern for a long time - but this is different. This is a real action by a government agency, and all America knows is that the SEC sued Musk and he’s going to be ousted.

I feel that the statement the Board made is not even close to nearly enough. They must seize this situation and turn it to their advantage. They must regain control of their own narrative or risk people losing interest in their cars.

Part of Tesla’s DNA is that they don’t advertise, but when that strategy was implemented they could not have foreseen these current circumstances. I think they need to launch a PR campaign and get the word out nationally what they are about. Word of mouth IS the best advertisement, but it is also slow. Think how many hearts and minds could be reached by a few awesome, well placed ads during a major sports event, or a widely viewed TV show, or even, gulp, on CNBC.

I envision a different kind of car commercial, written by someone who believes in the mission and filmed by a director who is in love with the vehicles. Let’s have an ad that introduces Tesla’s mission and ultimate goals, to appeal to those across the country who want to leave a better world to their kids and grandkids. And one for families that shows how sleek and sexy safety can be, as well as low mainainence, providing both cost and time savings. And one that appeals to tech and car people who maybe just haven’t thought about EVs before.

Kate
 
This.......on steroids. A $10B bet against Tesla is placed by the largest institutions. This bet that Tesla cannot produce will fail very visibly at the end of Q3......if not on Monday with an announcement of delivery numbers. Big Money calls the SEC for a lifeline that will allow them to pass their bets into the hands of smaller Short positions IN FULL by creating a mechanism (the lawsuit announcement) that dumps the share price enough for them to do so. The Short position on Monday morning will still be similar to what it was last week...........but it will be held by 'smaller hands' (not the President's smaller hands). And then Big Money will be buying like crazy to ride the price back up and crush the people that they handed their bag of 'stuff' to. This is really no different than 10 years ago, with the exception that 10 years ago GS torched Lehman Brothers (their competition). Next week they will torch their own followers. Greed has no shame. But it is a shame that Greed collects followers. And this next week may find many of those followers feeling a sense of shame.

The SEC announcement was literally made at the very last moment for it to have successfully bailed anyone out of a bad short bet before Oct 1st. That is why I see the SEC lawsuit itself as a dangerous bet. IMO the SEC will eventually do everything it can for this NOT to go to court, because like many others here I do not think that was the intention of filing the suit. But who wouldn't fully expect that Elon will do everything in his power to actually take this to court for the pain that it caused himself, his company, his employees, and every Long investor that he stood by and tried to protect when he finally decided not to go private. Protecting the banks that act recklessly appears to have only taught them they can continue to expect protection at the highest levels. Friday's price action adds fuel to Elon's case. A reversal next week that includes any gains by Big Money that held a Short Position as late as last week will only add further support.
Whether by design or circumstance, this is very likely to be how it all shakes out.
Robin
 
One of my biggest concerns right now is that Tesla has lost control of their own story. Their story is now told through the national media lens, and it looks ugly. Go to the Google News page and look at the national headlines. This is what most people see.

Most American don’t read on this forum, or Electrek, or really anything much past the headlines. Many will catch a snip of the news or CNBC before or after work, and then go about their lives. FUD has been a concern for a long time - but this is different. This is a real action by a government agency, and all America knows is that the SEC sued Musk and he’s going to be ousted.

I feel that the statement the Board made is not even close to nearly enough. They must seize this situation and turn it to their advantage. They must regain control of their own narrative or risk people losing interest in their cars.

Part of Tesla’s DNA is that they don’t advertise, but when that strategy was implemented they could not have foreseen these current circumstances. I think they need to launch a PR campaign and get the word out nationally what they are about. Word of mouth IS the best advertisement, but it is also slow. Think how many hearts and minds could be reached by a few awesome, well placed ads during a major sports event, or a widely viewed TV show, or even, gulp, on CNBC.

I envision a different kind of car commercial, written by someone who believes in the mission and filmed by a director who is in love with the vehicles. Let’s have an ad that introduces Tesla’s mission and ultimate goals, to appeal to those across the country who want to leave a better world to their kids and grandkids. And one for families that shows how sleek and sexy safety can be, as well as low mainainence, providing both cost and time savings. And one that appeals to tech and car people who maybe just haven’t thought about EVs before.

Kate

Tesla is fine. Demand is insane. Backlog is huge. If some people are turned off by the news reporting, that just means others get their cars sooner.
 
WSJ OP-ed from the Editorial board titled "SEC overkill on Elon Musk"- Opinion | SEC Overkill on Elon Musk

“while Mr. Musk deserves some SEC sanction, barring him from serving as a director or officer of a public company is excessive.”

I'm very surprised to see the WSJ come out so strongly in support of Elon. I'm reminded of the show Billions and how many of these prosecutions have to deal with optics and how Giamatti's Prosecutor character only begins to go after a hedge fund guy after he buys a big flashy house. They hate going after people that are popular with the public. The SEC definitely thought this was a good time to go after Elon because right now his popularity is very low after the "pedo" stuff in particular. However I think they will be surprised at the amount of goodwill that Elon still has and are not ready for the backlash. Besides the WSJ piece there was an excellent Wired article as well titled "The Case Against Elon Musk Will Chill Innovation" (The Case Against Elon Musk Will Chill Innovation).

Similarly I've seen the Gorman video posted over and over in this thread and while I shared it myself further, its important to not fall to group think and recognize that plenty of people besides Gorman view the case as more 50/50. However one thing that almost everyone agrees on is that an officer/director ban seems fully inappropriate given the charge.
 
I think EM overall Japanese cred increased sharply recently with a japanese being the 1st passenger in SpaceX.
Also SpaceX won contract to launch two satellites to the moon for a japanese company just few days back

& Panasonic is installing 3 more lines at GF & is a willing partner in China GF efforts ...

According to the Japanese equivalent of the WSJ, Tesla's problems are adversely affecting Panasonic's share price.

<東証>パナソニックが逆行安 テスラCEO提訴を警戒
 
I was just thinking, perhaps Elon said "Don't panic" because he is going to get the Saudi prince (or whomever is in charge of their fund) to issue a letter saying they had a verbal agreement for him [elon] to raise as much funds as you can and he would cover the rest

Such a letter would pretty much stop this lawsuit in it's tracks, no?

that would probably get the case dismissed, if the SEC didn't bother pulling it themselves.
 
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I was just thinking, perhaps Elon said "Don't panic" because he is going to get the Saudi prince (or whomever is in charge of their fund) to issue a letter saying they had a verbal agreement for him [elon] to raise as much funds as you can and he would cover the rest

Such a letter would pretty much stop this lawsuit in it's tracks, no?
It might help with the "secured funding", but not much with the "contingent only on a shareholder vote".
 
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