Waiting4M3
Active Member
This is just patently untrue... I think on to ignore list you go
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Oh look another "brilliant" short who just discovered Tesla shows up to educate us, how special. As always I'll suggest they try to actually come up with an argument we haven't already heard a hundred times before...
Waiting4M3
Active Member
The presidency, tariffs, tax incentives can all change in 2-3 years, some will almost definitely. trust that Tesla has a longer view on their growth plan than 2-3 years, and investors should have longer time horizons also.
Reciprocity
Active Member
You should re listen to it. That investment was for 5k -10k/w and Y.
Reciprocity
Active Member
I was only referencing the time frame for recession. I was actually saying that Tesla would be fine in a recession. So my long term view is actually more bullish. I was specifically referencing tariffs, impeachment and tax incentives as threats to Tesla if the recession comes sooner because of the trade war and uncertainty around impeachment. I just feel it is better if Tesla is able to fulfill demand before the recession hurts demand.
Edit: to be clear. I have a greater then 2 year Outlook for recession. Tesla has a lot of work to do in the next 2 years. I believe they can do it.
sundaymorning
Active Member
Hi Re, I’m genuinely interested in your viewpoint that a recession will not hit us within the next 2 years. I share this sentiment as well and I’m interested in why you think this is the case? If possible can you expand your thoughts? From your experience are you aware of any meaningful signs of an economy headed towards a recession so that I can add it to my list of things to watch out for?
Antonio M. Sacconaghi - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC
Thank you. That's helpful. So is the – $3.5 billion and the greater than 50% to Model 3, is that going to complete all the required equipment to get us to 10,000 a week at the end of the year or are we still going to have incremental capital expenditures? "
Deepak Ahuja - Tesla, Inc.
To sort of finish off your first thought or question, no, we will still have further investments in 10,000 per week capacity of Model 3 happening next year, as a lot of that will be concluded next year. There's always a lag in our cash outflow, and while we continue to test the equipment and verify it. So that'll continue in 2019.
Thank you. That's helpful. So is the – $3.5 billion and the greater than 50% to Model 3, is that going to complete all the required equipment to get us to 10,000 a week at the end of the year or are we still going to have incremental capital expenditures? "
Deepak Ahuja - Tesla, Inc.
To sort of finish off your first thought or question, no, we will still have further investments in 10,000 per week capacity of Model 3 happening next year, as a lot of that will be concluded next year. There's always a lag in our cash outflow, and while we continue to test the equipment and verify it. So that'll continue in 2019.
Here's a transcript from SA.
Rest of payoff of current 3 equipment, additional 3 equipment for 10k (amount discussed elsewhere), Y line, TE.
Continues with less useful info posted above...
Off Shore
Off Topic Member
Thanks to all for the self-restraint in avoiding feeding the trolls and keeping the SNR high. Oops, that was on an alternate-universe TMC.
dc_h
Active Member
Math: 8000 per week * 13 = 5.5 billion. Check your zeros when you invest or your investment might be worth zero.
This quarter regarding 2500, yes it’s important. If they are around 2000 to 2500 end of month, but appear on track for 3500 to 5000 in Q2, I think the stock will run up. Model S/X in Q1 is likely to be about below 25,000 as they refill the pipeline, but based on vin count, I think they are building closer to 30,000 per quarter. If, and big if, they reach 4000 in Q2 and enter over 2000, that’s about 40,000 Model 3’s and 27000 S/X, that’s 5 billion in revenue.
dc_h
Active Member
Lighten up. Long term the stock may follow or anticipate performance, but it will track performance. Don’t bet against Elon and don’t worry about those who do. He’s committed to making Tesla the biggest car company. I think he’ll do it, as he has already done with SpaceX.
Reciprocity
Active Member
I have a few times.. VA and I have went back and forth a few times. But in simplest terms, I'm watching employment very closely. People think because we are at 4.1% that we are at full employment. But what happened in the great recession, about 6 million people left the job market entirely. They gave up looking or the jobs they found where not enough to keep them in the market. This is basically missing from the unemployment rate and there are a large number of people in the age range where they would be expected to earn regular wages, so not super young people or old people. As this group shrinks then wage pressure will start and that will be an issue. In general, a little inflation is good. I hope the fed allows some inflation until at least half of those 6 million come back into the job market. You should actually start to see the unemployment rate tick up and it will be positive. People being comfortable switching jobs and more people coming back into the job market. There are still concerns, because it's not trivial to leave the job market for 8+ years and come back. Employers are going to have to kick in with training programs. But as the economy finally heats up, due mostly to tax cuts and less regulation, employers will need to do things to fill open positions.
To me, two years is a minimum. Could very well be 3+. Just depends on how fast this happens. To fast and rates will need to rise quicker. To slow and well, someone will pass laws to screw it all up. Or start a trade war.
Can you point to where they said this? It completely disagrees with my own recollection. It looks like ir.tesla.com is down at the moment, but I will try to find exactly what they DID say, but my recollection is that they said more like "we already have everything we need to ramp up to 5000/week".
edit: others found stuff already. Thanks. Even Teslie refuted his own words.
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pz1975
Active Member
Ignore list has grown again. These pop-up care bears are like clockwork when the stock is down. Been around long enough to filter out the noise.
bdy0627
Active Member
With shorts popping up here, it's probably a good sign for the stock.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
If your user name contains the word "lie"...
Gene Munster & Loup Ventures Expect Tesla Market Share To Triple To 1.5% Soon, Rise To 17% In 10 Years (USA) | CleanTechnica
One of the most famed Apple analysts, Gene Munster, has recently turned his attention to Tesla. Munster’s firm, Loup Ventures, “surveyed 519 people in the U.S. regarding interest in buying a Tesla Model 3 … [and] found a surprisingly high number (17%) of people would buy a Model 3 at $40,000. Even if this survey is off by 3x, the results still imply significant market share gains are in store for Tesla given their current U.S. unit market share is below 0.5%.”
Even though any first-time survey has its limitations, Munster acknowledges that the insights are “still valuable” for future projections. He predicts, “Longer-term (10 yrs from now) we believe Tesla can capture 17% of the U.S. auto market share, consistent with our survey results … [although] it’s easy for someone to say they’re going to spend $40,000 and harder for them to actually do it. Our optimism regarding this initial survey is based on dialing back the intent to buy by 60%, which would still indicate significant market share gains.”
So, what does all this mean? According to Munster, “Expect Tesla market share to increase from 0.5% to 1.5%. As of the end of Dec-17 Tesla has delivered 1,772 Model 3s. We expect 14k in the Mar-18 quarter and 168k deliveries in 2018, with a 70% chance they actually hit those numbers. … If we assume Model 3 deliveries are heavily weighted (70%) in the U.S. initially, and that Tesla delivers the net preorders over the next two years, we expect Tesla (Model 3, S and X) to make up 1.5% of all cars sold in the U.S.”
One of the most famed Apple analysts, Gene Munster, has recently turned his attention to Tesla. Munster’s firm, Loup Ventures, “surveyed 519 people in the U.S. regarding interest in buying a Tesla Model 3 … [and] found a surprisingly high number (17%) of people would buy a Model 3 at $40,000. Even if this survey is off by 3x, the results still imply significant market share gains are in store for Tesla given their current U.S. unit market share is below 0.5%.”
Even though any first-time survey has its limitations, Munster acknowledges that the insights are “still valuable” for future projections. He predicts, “Longer-term (10 yrs from now) we believe Tesla can capture 17% of the U.S. auto market share, consistent with our survey results … [although] it’s easy for someone to say they’re going to spend $40,000 and harder for them to actually do it. Our optimism regarding this initial survey is based on dialing back the intent to buy by 60%, which would still indicate significant market share gains.”
So, what does all this mean? According to Munster, “Expect Tesla market share to increase from 0.5% to 1.5%. As of the end of Dec-17 Tesla has delivered 1,772 Model 3s. We expect 14k in the Mar-18 quarter and 168k deliveries in 2018, with a 70% chance they actually hit those numbers. … If we assume Model 3 deliveries are heavily weighted (70%) in the U.S. initially, and that Tesla delivers the net preorders over the next two years, we expect Tesla (Model 3, S and X) to make up 1.5% of all cars sold in the U.S.”
whatever... stop pretending to mod this board. this is a propaganda group.
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