TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[beachbum77]

Because Tesla doesn’t announce monthly sales ? It’s high time Tesla started releasing monthly sales. Everyone can then see they are beating Merc & BMW.

I would be happy if they could just report quarterly deliveries by country. Then InsideEVs could stop estimating sales. Maybe we can ask the new Chairman for a reporting change in the spirit of transparency.

Maybe we could also ask to have inventory Model 3's listed on the website like they do with some S & X units. The total now stands at 1,985 across the U.S. and Canada. Having to call around to delivery centers asking "what inventory units do you have available?" is so "pre-internet".

 

[TrendTrader007]

It’s all about psychology $TSLA shorts think that dumping the stock on great news might just might scare the weak hands into selling and thereby perpetuating a vicious cycle
Sorry, all the weak hands already sold last Friday
I’m afraid it’s too little too late for shorties
See you at $400+

Eventually looking at $4000 to $5800 SP over next 5 to 12 years as per ARK Cathie Woods and Ron Baron
Which is probably overly conservative
Shorts have no future in $TSLA

 

[theschnell]

Who is short this stock now?

1) Valuation less than 2 times 2019 revenue with average of 50% revenue increase per year.

2) Sustainably profitable

3) The Tesla Killer Bolt proves that OEMs can’t compete even when priced significantly lower. Also, the luxury car makers planned production is so small they cannot steal significant market share even if they sell out their entire production (which I think they might although the Bolt makes me less optimistic). So real competition is still years away at minimum.

4) Demand of the rest of the world for Model 3 not even touched yet.

What am I leaving out?

I’m working on the wife to buy some more even though I’m already invested far beyond what is generally considered a prudent level (all stock).

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Has there been any mention of how many are still waiting for Model 3’s. Is the list shrinking, growing, stagnant. ??

Is the list available by country??

 

[Brian121]

I know this probably belongs to the Fundamental thread. But..

If Tesla's ultimate goal is to build a ride sharing Tesla Network. Why wait until full self driving is implemented? Why can't they start a Uber like service now with Tesla-model-cars only service?

Model 3, S and X would command different pricing. Using the diehard Tesla "Fanboys" helping delivery as a hint, I am sure a lot of people, me included, would be willing to give ride to people to (1) introducing the car to mass population, (2) earn some money, and (3) boost the bottom line for Tesla.

I can even see that Tesla set a minimum cut of say 15%, but would allow driver to adjust up percent the cut Tesla would get. So if you really want to volunteer for Tesla's bottom line, then raise it to 100%. I am sure some people here is willing to do.

I can think of a couple of items why it's not feasible now, the small size of the Tesla fleet, and the up front cost to launch such a service. But if there is positive response from market, then it's a driver's market. Whoever signs on must have constant request for ride. And this would in turn encourage possible Tesla owners to sign on, maybe even purchase the car to start they side job. I remember a lot of people purchase large black SUVs just to sign on to Uber's Black service. So maybe it's not a stretch that people will buy Model X just to get the highest ride price. This translates into demand.

There may be start up cost, but we will eventually do this, so why not now?

 

[oneday]

I would be happy if they could just report quarterly deliveries by country. Then InsideEVs could stop estimating sales. Maybe we can ask the new Chairman for a reporting change in the spirit of transparency.

Maybe we could also ask to have inventory Model 3's listed on the website like they do with some S & X units. The total now stands at 1,985 across the U.S. and Canada. Having to call around to delivery centers asking "what inventory units do you have available?" is so "pre-internet".

Hopefully the new chairman will only take requests from actual shareholders. And not trolls who call delivery centers or trolls who fly drones over parking lots.

 

[EinSV]

Who is short this stock now?

1) Valuation less than 2 times 2019 revenue with average of 50% revenue increase per year.

2) Sustainably profitable

3) The Tesla Killer Bolt proves that OEMs can’t compete even when priced significantly lower. Also, the luxury car makers planned production is so small they cannot steal significant market share even if they sell out their entire production (which I think they might although the Bolt makes me less optimistic). So real competition is still years away at minimum.

4) Demand of the rest of the world for Model 3 not even touched yet.

What am I leaving out?

I’m working on the wife to buy some more even though I’m already invested far beyond what is generally considered a prudent level (all stock).

On your item 1, if luvb2b’s analysis is correct Tesla is already trading under 2X revenue.

luv's Q3 revenue estimate is $6.9B. x4 is $27.6B annualized. Market cap at close today is $51.35B, which results is a Price/Sales ratio of 1.86.

This is extremely low for a company growing as fast as Tesla and with its growth and profitability potential.

 

[Xpert]

Some uptick after hours going on right now

Perhaps folks have time to crunch the numbers and figured it out. If FAct Checking is right and we are going to have a lot of cash in Q3 and Q4, short thesis has been pretty much destroyed. Time to buy more here or wait for Q3 ER?

 

[beachbum77]

I know this probably belongs to the Fundamental thread. But..

If Tesla's ultimate goal is to build a ride sharing Tesla Network. Why wait until full self driving is implemented? Why can't they start a Uber like service now with Tesla-model-cars only service?

Model 3, S and X would command different pricing. Using the diehard Tesla "Fanboys" helping delivery as a hint, I am sure a lot of people, me included, would be willing to give ride to people to (1) introducing the car to mass population, (2) earn some money, and (3) boost the bottom line for Tesla.

I can even see that Tesla set a minimum cut of say 15%, but would allow driver to adjust up percent the cut Tesla would get. So if you really want to volunteer for Tesla's bottom line, then raise it to 100%. I am sure some people here is willing to do.

I can think of a couple of items why it's not feasible now, the small size of the Tesla fleet, and the up front cost to launch such a service. But if there is positive response from market, then it's a driver's market. Whoever signs on must have constant request for ride. And this would in turn encourage possible Tesla owners to sign on, maybe even purchase the car to start they side job. I remember a lot of people purchase large black SUVs just to sign on to Uber's Black service. So maybe it's not a stretch that people will buy Model X just to get the highest ride price. This translates into demand.

There may be start up cost, but we will eventually do this, so why not now?

The answer is simple economics.

Uber drivers are struggling now using cars that are in most cases fully paid off. You want people with $700-900 car payments to become minimum wage drivers, blowing through their warranties in record time? Never going to happen...

You are also forgetting car services would need supercharging which is no longer available for commercial uses such as Uber or Lyft

 

[Duffer]

I was curious as to the cause of the dip after hours.
Fed Judge in San Francisco says Tesla needs to defend it's abuse of foreign workers.

 

[brian45011]

If true, Couldn't 2019/March convertibles of $920m be paid off before Q3 earnings (the Fed loans were paid off years in advance)? Wouldn't this be better than OOP tweet

Why do that?

 

[MP3Mike]

The answer is simple economics.

Uber drivers are struggling now using cars that are in most cases fully paid off. You want people with $700-900 car payments to become minimum wage drivers, blowing through their warranties in record time? Never going to happen...

You are also forgetting car services would need supercharging which is no longer available for commercial uses such as Uber or Lyft

Supercharging is no longer available without an arrangement with Tesla. Driving on the Tesla Network could give you access to Supercharging as well as extending your warranty for miles driven on network.

 

[Fact Checking]

Production was 53,239 while deliveries were ~55,840 so Tesla drew Model 3 inventory down by 2600 cars.

Indeed, you are right, I got that wrong.

(Where I got confused is vehicles in transit: at the beginning of Q3 were 11,166 M3s, while 8,048 at the end of Q3. But those are both in the finished goods inventory, and the net inventory drawdown is what you calculated.)

I made the same mistake with S/X as well: the real drawdown is 757 units.

So the change in inventory: 60k*2,600+104k*757 = ~$234m - which lowers the result to $892m. (Note that this is relative to Q2 and only approximate. )

But these are rough estimates, the real cash flow estimates are in luvb2b's latest model run.

 

[beachbum77]

Supercharging is no longer available without an arrangement with Tesla. Driving on the Tesla Network could give you access to Supercharging as well as extending your warranty for miles driven on network.

You are talking what could be, somewhere down the road. I deal in what is...today. Those "arrangements" are not free anymore.

I have a better idea. Let's match up 1,000 inventory Model 3's with volunteer current owner's to operate an Uber type service to introduce people to Tesla's. Any takers?

 

[oneday]

The answer is simple economics.

Uber drivers are struggling now using cars that are in most cases fully paid off. You want people with $700-900 car payments to become minimum wage drivers, blowing through their warranties in record time? Never going to happen...

You are also forgetting car services would need supercharging which is no longer available for commercial uses such as Uber or Lyft

Not necessarily, if Tesla linked it into your navigation. For example, say you input you are driving to San Francisco from San Jose, Tesla could find riders that fit your trip itinerary. It could then give you the option to accept rider, tell you exactly how many minutes out of your way you would have to go to accommodate the trip and what your trip $earnings would be. This would be a great way to supplement model 3 supercharger fees and maybe add a couple extra bucks for a bite. Brilliant if you ask me. And if you don’t think Tesla has a big enough following for people to at least check to see if a Tesla ride was available before they check Uber or Lyft I would say I think you’re wrong.

 

[copyhacker]

By definition, short sellers are not tsla investors.

Tell that to the SEC.

 

[Off Shore]

Who is short this stock now?

1) Valuation less than 2 times 2019 revenue with average of 50% revenue increase per year.

2) Sustainably profitable

3) The Tesla Killer Bolt proves that OEMs can’t compete even when priced significantly lower. Also, the luxury car makers planned production is so small they cannot steal significant market share even if they sell out their entire production (which I think they might although the Bolt makes me less optimistic). So real competition is still years away at minimum.

4) Demand of the rest of the world for Model 3 not even touched yet.

What am I leaving out?

I’m working on the wife to buy some more even though I’m already invested far beyond what is generally considered a prudent level (all stock).

Stay off margin and you're good.

 

[Open Interest]

I was curious as to the cause of the dip after hours.
Fed Judge in San Francisco says Tesla needs to defend it's abuse of foreign workers.

Hmmmm.....I see a $3 gain in AH

 

[beachbum77]

Not necessarily, if Tesla linked it into your navigation. For example, say you input you are driving to San Francisco from San Jose, Tesla could find riders that fit your trip itinerary. It could then give you the option to accept rider, tell you exactly how many minutes out of your way you would have to go to accommodate the trip and what your trip $earnings would be. This would be a great way to supplement model 3 supercharger fees and maybe add a couple extra bucks for a bite. Brilliant if you ask me. And if you don’t think Tesla has a big enough following for people to at least check to see if a Tesla ride was available before they check Uber or Lyft I would say I think you’re wrong.

90% of Uber rides are under 20 miles according to drivers I have used. Virtually no one uses them between cities. The costs are too high. Maybe your area is different. You should ask around.

If someone needs to go out of their way to pick up strangers to help cover the cost of Supercharging and a burger, they cannot afford to own a Tesla. The Tesla owners I have chatted with about a network scoff at it. They have no intention of allowing anyone in their cars. Doctors, lawyers, engineers, doing Uber type service after work or on days off? Yeah, right...

 

[theschnell]

Stay off margin and you're good.

Agreed. No margin here.