TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[MXWing]

I wonder if it will end up being a 34k, then 33, then 32... Ford did that with the model T and now there are so many cars they've changed the planet, and that horse manure problem is all but forgotten. My hunch is that is part of the impetus for going private is that it would be harder to lower the price as a public company. And even if margins dropped by doing it, they could still make money on them and pretty much force every other car maker to either go out of business or go electric.

Haven't heard anyone talk about the cost diff of motors vs engines for a while. It really is a big difference in the long term, engines just plain have more parts and maintenance.Did he say GM is still investing into engines? Kind of reminds me of when Blackberry was going all in on keyboards when the iPhone was coming out with a touchscreen.

The problem with the Model T scenario as you described above is that producing Model 3 SR is a zero sum game proposition.

Batteries that go into the Model 3 SR are batteries that don't go into 3P+ overseas or Powerwalls which are severely backlogged.

 

[scaesare]

The SP movement indicates few believe Q3 will be hugely profitable...

So now the narrative is not "hugely" profitable?

Anybody who was paying attention guidance shouldn't have been expecting hugely profitable for Q3...

 

[dqd88]

LOL. What is stopping you? Short away. Everyone else is.

I think a couple things pressuring the stock today are
- the article about Elon giving ultimatum to the board (happened last week but was reported yesterday/today)
- reports about Murdoch as chairman. Market doesn't like this. I don't like this. Shows BOD isn't looking at this right
- china/tariff issue. more fodder for media bears.

Makes me sad that the funding secured tweet caused so much volatility and unease in it's wake. I assert that it was not false or illegal, (just ill-timed and poorly worded).

 

[Chickenlittle]

Already done for you . Here you go for Model 3
View attachment 340346
The surplus inventory also includes test drive and showroom models. They are not all just sitting on lots somewhere. The bold numbers come from Tesla each quarter. So the math is pretty easy.

In Q3 45,191 units from production were available to be sold. When you combine this with the number of in-transit units from Q2 (which we presume all got delivered) you have your total possible deliveries. If the actual number delivered is less you had a surplus for that quarter.

What you are calling surplus inventory is not surplus at all. Many represent multiple use cars including testing cars [abuse to determine life span], demo drive cars for use in all stores around the world, crash testing cars, cars damaged in transport, cars used for purposes of training mechanics to fix, cars for all show room flores etc

 

[traxila]

Meh. I bought in the $260s recently. I have dry powder, but I'm not going to buy in the $290s days after buying in the $260s

Also too cheap to sell. Sort of a coasting period for me.

You are too good at this. Need to take investment advice from you for sure. Always seem to buy on the way down...but never down enough.

 

[Fact Checking]

Already done for you . Here you go for Model 3
View attachment 340346
The surplus inventory also includes test drive and showroom models. They are not all just sitting on lots somewhere. The bold numbers come from Tesla each quarter. So the math is pretty easy.

In Q3 45,191 units from production were available to be sold. When you combine this with the number of in-transit units from Q2 (which we presume all got delivered) you have your total possible deliveries. If the actual number delivered is less you had a surplus for that quarter.

Cool, thanks, that's really useful - that table is what @avoigt should tweet out: at 5k/week rate the end of Q3 Model 3 inventory was 1,985 cars, which at a 5k/week run-rate is less than 3 days worth of inventory - and that includes all show room cars and test drive cars. (!)

Impressive end of Q3 Model 3 "inventory flush" done by Tesla: this should help cash flow as well.

Powerfully destroys the "unsold Model 3s" narrative.

 

[Buckminster]

Europe votes in favour of 40% CO2 reduction by 2030 | Autocar

 

[Drumheller]

Well... this is... something...

https://jalopnik.com/kanye-west-jumps-on-table-at-detroit-college-to-rant-ab-1829489198

 

[Buckminster]

Diesel deaths – complete list of 2018's axed models | Autocar

 

[KarenRei]

Well... this is... something...

https://jalopnik.com/kanye-west-jumps-on-table-at-detroit-college-to-rant-ab-1829489198

*blink*
*blink*

Okay then....

 

[cheshire cat]

You are too good at this. Need to take investment advice from you for sure. Always seem to buy on the way down...but never down enough.

But only time is the difference - only luck hits bottom. I had two shots last week one 2" high($2) and one in the bull (my bull/ target) but it still went down another $1.50. But not bad MOA from three thousand miles away, if I say so myself

 

[X Fan]

So now the narrative is not "hugely" profitable?

Anybody who was paying attention guidance shouldn't have been expecting hugely profitable for Q3...

moving goalposts....politicians do it all the time..

 

[Buckminster]

Of all the bloggers, vloggers and podcasters, these guys are my fave. They produce a podcast infrequently nowadays but for those that don't know about them (Silicon Valley developers):
96 – Going Private, Staying Public, SEC Settlement

 

[alloverx]

You are too good at this. Need to take investment advice from you for sure. Always seem to buy on the way down...but never down enough.

I have watched the share price for several years now and have generally called the low spots correctly. Friday was tough since not clear Elon would settle in the short term. Buying at 260 was a good middle of the road bet, especially for longs knowing that the M3 sales were increasing. But if he had not settled over the weekend it would have gone down some more.

 

[omarsultan]

?

I notice the Model X has been outselling the Model S recently... according to the estimates anyway.

Is this because the Model X is finally coming into its own and occupying its rightful place at the top? (since SUVs sell more)

Or is it because there is now another, less expensive Tesla sedan that we can now choose? Surely that will impact the Model S some.

I would like to think it's a combination of both. I don't think it's fair to say there is zero cannibalisation.

$292. BAH... wish I had some dry powder

Our Tesla Owners Club helped out with deliveries for the last couple of weekends and I was surprised at the number of Model Xs delivered. I thought the vast majority of deliveries would be 3s with the occasional S or X thrown in, but that wasn't the case. While most of the deliveries were 3s, there was a significant number of Xs in the mix, which I would imagine is helpful from a profitability perspective.

 

[beachbum77]

Meh. I bought in the $260s recently. I have dry powder, but I'm not going to buy in the $290s days after buying in the $260s

Also too cheap to sell. Sort of a coasting period for me.

Q3 report boost should be great but not durable. It will have a profit on it. Why am I so confident? Same reason I was that Tesla wouldn't break the tax credit limit in Q2: Tesla controls all of the levers here, and they have so much riding on it. They've staked so much reputation on it that they'd burn their seed corn in order to make it happen. Even if they were coming short, they could always cut - R&D, capital, you name it - to make it happen. And there was more than enough evidence of them micromanaging the pricing levers throughout the quarter to make it happen. So I'm highly confident that we'll see a profit in Q3.

What you are pointing out is pulling levers for an engineered profit. That does not point to a sustainable profit and I think the recent SP movement points to that uneasiness.

A profit similar to 3Q16 of $100-$150 million, when such a large portion of the pent-up demand was exhausted in Q3, will not drive the SP much higher. In fact, it could drive it down with an overall attitude of "is that all there is?". For a real SP bounce we need to see $500 MM to $1B, and based on Musk's email to employees that does not seem to be in the cards.

I believe Q3 may have suffered from the "law of diminishing returns". Where the extra push for 55,000 versus 50,000 or 48,000 deliveries actually cost so much it reduced the average profit per car once all expenses are tabulated. I also think the Model S & X deliveries were achieved with a high degree of discounting. We will see what the numbers show in a few weeks.

The overall report was not as good as I was hoping for. So we are now on the sidelines. We closed the remaining 50% of our Oct 5 calls yesterday morning on the early bump.

 

[MXWing]

Kanye West Jumps on Table at Detroit College to Rant About Leaving Elon Musk Alone

Kanye West's comments towards college students:
"I don't give a f*ck who's over at his house. Leave that man the f*ck alone".

Not sure if this helps TSLA share price but I agree with the sentiment. hahah

Not on topic unless Kanye West affects market action but have to add this here for the nerds:
(Look up Kanye West + Taylor Swift VMA 2009 for context)

 

[tivoboy]

If we keep bouncing off $294, we’ll be just fine...not advice....etc. etc....JMHO...

Well that didn’t last long

 

[cheshire cat]

finger trouble again sorry

 

[davecolene0606]

What do you guys think of this video?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5It3nHaOhZA&index=2&list=WL

Missing any and all nuance and depth. Not sure where this guys head is at.

Fire Away!