TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[theschnell]

I just hope Elon is right in his impression that the judge thinks the SEC was being too harsh on him.

That’s certainly my view, but how can he really know?

Maybe it was just standard procedure and he’s reading this all wrong.

Regardless, why TWEET about it???

Just get the thing settled or proceed with fighting it, but please stop randomly tweeting

 

[MXWing]

My god I can’t believe I am having to buy Tesla tomorrow based on fundamentals and not off of Elon’s hype.

Thankfully the fundamentals are looking up.
S3X sells and I’m seeing a lot of it.

 

[anon]

Apparently, oversight of Elon's tweets doesn't begin until 90 days after the settlement date! So we've still got another 3 months of turbulence in the share price to look forward to...I wonder if he'll be making the most of it and causing even more controversy than usual?

Teddy Schleifer on Twitter

 

[anthonyj]

The ultimate bear trap

 

[SBenson]

Calm down people. Just a minor glitch in the simulation.

Typos will be fixed in the next version.

 

[azaz]

fwiw Elon seems like he's on a flight somewhere. been tweeting for hours now on a weekday.

 

[Unpilot]

fwiw Elon seems like he's on a flight somewhere. been tweeting for hours now on a weekday.

China ...to cut ribbon on new GF3

 

[Xpert]

I agree, Elon just needs to drop it. Drop the whole damn thing and move on. A strong earnings this quarter is coming and the market will need to re-evaluate the current undervaluation of Tesla. 3-4 weeks more to go until official numbers get released. The China thing is overblown, we haven’t delivered Model 3s to China yet. The whole world is waiting on their 3, China can wait a bit.

No. Elon needs to tweet more. Need price to be temporarily lowered so we can load up the truck before a profitable Q3 ER. At the end of the day what matters is how much money can and will Tesla make in the next few quarters/years.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Hi Folks,

Not sure what to think yet about this latest move in the ongoing struggle for the soul of Tesla. A few things come to mind: (starting to form some ideas about the next 6 months)

1. Elon may have previewed the proposed settlement letter and balked
2. Shares were down $15 by midday, but only another $6.5 after-hrs post tweet
   
3. very likely TSLA will open down further tomorrow as Media picks up the story
4. one thing seems clear, Elon is in a fighting mood right now
5. by nature, Elon exhibits only Righteous Anger not to be trivialized or discounted
   
6. let me emphasize: I think Elon is PISSED, not BROKEN (he is motivated)
   
7. he also burned some bridges today (ie: SEC); so he's not going back that way
   
8. one of Elon's choices may just be to resign as CEO and Chairman of Tesla
   
9. that would free him to start buying up shares as an outsider investor
   
10. owning just 30% more TSLA shares, Elon could force a go-private motion
    
11. shorts don't realize it yet, but their existential threat is a private TSLAP
12. so where does TSLA bottom out, and can Elon afFORD* it on his own?
13. Elon would give up $300B CEO compensation for $500B as majority shareholder
14. if a go-private buy-out could be done for $50B, that's a 10x return on investment in 10 yrs
15. BTW, at the current SP, Elon would only need ~ $14B to buy up a majority of TSLA
16. Can he borrow that much against SpaceX? @Fact Checking @neroden Others?

So, really, I do not know what tomorrow will bring, or next year. I do know that there is never a dull day in TSLA-town, and that one element is present even when all else is in doubt.

Cheers, best wishes to all. Exciting times!

NOT AN ADVICE

*Note: Read more about how Henry Ford took Ford Motors private, here:
Remember That Time Ford Went Private? Elon Musk & Henry Ford ...

 

[sundaymorning]

Never seen longs so scared about a few tweets. Yeah, it's been a rough couple months but we all knew this was a volatile stock. No one should have thought Elon wouldn't be Elon after he took that toke.

I don't think he's ever been more confident in Tesla than he is now. This is short-baiting. The share price really can't go that much lower with positive free cash flow all but confirmed. I'm calling green tomorrow because the market usually does the unexpected in the short-term. I think this is one of those "irrational fear" dips that we all look back on as obvious 6 months from now.

I hope you’re right about tomorrow. I agree with your assessment that’s Tesla is in a good spot financially, a few more weeks of bear attacks here and there and we’ll be back to hunting season. Lock, loaded and ready...

 

[BenPrice]

I hope he goes nuts on the establishment.

I’m tired of having my kids future be dictated by the greedy

 

[SO16]

No. Elon needs to tweet more. Need price to be temporarily lowered so we can load up the truck before a profitable Q3 ER. At the end of the day what matters is how much money can and will Tesla make in the next few quarters/years.

So then he can take it private for real this time at 420.

 

[mblakele]

We should be clear on what the shorts can and can't do, should vs. should not be able to do.

1) Short selling in itself is not a bad thing (necessarily). Without short-selling, the options and equity by definition are less efficient. I won't go into details, but imagine this. Let's say you hold a huge position in calls, or you are an employee with lots of shares in unvested RSUs, then being able to short takes some risk off the table for you. That's a good thing.

2) When short selling is bad is when it becomes a movement to destroy companies. When shorts slander companies and people to serve their interests (e.g. numerous bs articles posted on TSLA, and all of SA) then that's when it becomes a bad thing. In fact, there currently are laws already against shorts doing that, they just are never enforced because the SEC has limited resources and doesn't go after small fry.

What about returning to the uptick rule that was in place 1938-2007? Would that allow (1) while making (2) more difficult?

 

[goinfraftw]

With the added hype and attention from last year (Elon's been creating this hype for years now)...you wonder what his end game is now with Autopilot and AI, but I do wonder at times if it's to sue every competitor, negative analyst, and naysayer out of commission for fraud.

*Ahem* I guess that now includes the SEC. Fascinating.

 

[BenPrice]

Hi Folks,

Not sure what to think yet about this latest move in the ongoing struggle for the soul of Tesla. A few things come to mind: (starting to form some ideas about the next 6 months)

1. Elon may have previewed the proposed settlement letter and balked
2. Shares were down $15 by midday, but only another $6.5 after-hrs post tweet
   
3. very likely TSLA will open down further tomorrow as Media picks up the story
4. one thing seems clear, Elon is in a fighting mood right now
5. by nature, Elon exhibits only Righteous Anger, not to be trivialized or discounted
   
6. let me emphasize: I think Elon is PISSED, not BROKEN (motivated)
   
7. he also burned some bridges today (ie: SEC); so he's not going back that way
   
8. one of Elon's choices may just be to resign as CEO and Chariman
9. that would free him to start buying up shares as an outsider investor
   
10. owning just 30% more shares, Elon could force a go-private motion
    
11. shorts don't realize it yet, but their existential threat is a private TSLAP
12. so where does TSLA bottom out, and can Elon afFORD* it on his own?
13. Elon would give up $300B CEO compensation for $500B as majority shareholder.

So, really, I do not know what tomorrow will bring, or next year. I do know that there is never a dull day in TSLA-town, and that one element is present even when all else is in doubt. NOT AN ADVICE.

Cheers, best to all. Exciting times!

*Note: Read more about how Henry Ford took Ford Motors private, here:
Remember That Time Ford Went Private? Elon Musk & Henry Ford ...

Agree 100%.

This entire 2 month saga will only result in TSLAP.

Either SP drops to the point a 3rd party buys or Elon buys with SpaceX leverage.

 

[kelly]

IANAL, but a couple of thoughts about the legal angle:

• The settlement agreement is not yet approved by the judge, it's not yet entered as final judgement, so Elon is probably not bound by its terms yet - mocking the SEC is not against the law.
• The SEC is a federal agency, if they retaliate in any fashion against Elon for voicing his opinion then that looks like a clear-cut violation of Elon's First Amendment rights.
• The SEC cannot simply rescind the agreement, nor can Elon. To rescind the SEC would have to prove to the judge that Elon does not intend to honor the agreement. Making lawful statements of opinion about a federal agency, before the agreement is entered as final judgement, do not appear to be valid grounds to rescind.

But keep in mind that IANAL.

Nevertheless doing this probably wasn't wise: Elon is (again) lashing out from a position of apparent weakness.

Instead he should start bribing the political process like absolutely every other billionaire does, and once Tesla is strong and has a moat of politicians protecting it, he should communicate from a position of strength.

I'm not sure about your first point. Even though the agreement hasn't been blessed by the judge, unless the agreement has language that says it isn't final until approved by the judge, the SEC may be able to argue that a signed agreement is binding. I'm not a lawyer either, though so I could be wrong.

Regarding your second point, the SEC can "retaliate" in ways that are perfectly legal. Enforcing the securities laws is what it does. Watching Tesla/Musk super closely is not a constitutional violation and targets of government enforcement generally don't get far with "They're picking on me" arguments. (Unless you can prove it, of course.)

My take on the agreement is that Elon signed it, the SEC signed it and neither of them can rescind it. The judge can, however. And I suppose the letter that goes to the judge could torpedo the agreement if it wasn't a cohesive, joint argument as to why it should be approved. In other words, if Elon's portion of it complains that it wasn't fair, the judge could agree and throw it out. Then they are back to the position of the SEC filed an action against Elon and it proceeds as normal.

I hope you were kidding about the bribery.

 

[NikeWings]

Apparently, oversight of Elon's tweets doesn't begin until 90 days after the settlement date! So we've still got another 3 months of turbulence in the share price to look forward to...I wonder if he'll be making the most of it and causing even more controversy than usual

The hell with the 90 days, he needs to issue a joint letter WITH the SEC within a week...... ought to be REAL interesting.

 

[Xpert]

Word. Also, gotta agree about shorts in his tweet that it should be illegal. The stock market was originally created to spur services, outside of the government, to scale and provide value back to the populace (look up Alexander Hamilton). Short-selling goes against the fundamental nature of the stock market's creation.

Essentially, if you short a company - you're saying, to the people who are building and creating something of value to society and/or sub-segments of society, that "I want to destroy you and everything of value you're trying to create".

That's not an investment, that's a declaration of war, and should not be tolerated. It goes against the ethos of anyone that's a builder and a functional part of Silicon Valley (or any other area that's trying to create value). You create, you love, and you help. Shorting does nothing but destroy.

Isnt shorting banned in China markets? We need to really review and update shorting rules to not gimp legitimate businesses and destroy companies. Trump, are you reading this?

 

[SO16]

These headline writers do enjoy spinning it.

“
Tesla Nearly Triples Production Rate Despite Elon Musk Stepping Down”

Tesla Nearly Triples Production Rate Despite Elon Musk Stepping Down

 

[MartinAustin]

it's the iPhone moment for cars, in 5 years ICE cars will look ancient.

Staying long.

THIS.

I am seeing so many Model 3's all over Austin these days. Seeing them parked in so many odd locations. Just like... normal cars. This is the moment when the "normal people" on the outside of the Tesla Venn Diagram really begin to believe that electric cars aren't a joke and they should give it serious attention.

Not selling my stock... it will soon go up.

Tesla Inc. does not need the stock to be higher (except for that financial payback deal coming up soon). They're not going to be going to the market for money any more... they're going to be generating their own cash. We will see this on November 3rd-ish.

Elon can toss barbs at the SEC if he wishes, and honestly I'm glad someone is. Short sellers aren't investors... they're people who want to destroy companies. Not much different from a person who backs a truck loaded with C4 up to the side of a factory and tries to blow up the factory. The antics of Jim Chanos and Andrew Left et. al should be illegal, as Elon suggests.