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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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It doesn't have to be all of it. The power of a squeeze comes from having a high fraction shorted so the lower the percentage the less dramatic the squeeze. A sliding scale.

Reminder: I'm rooting for the short burn of the century. I just try to keep my expectations tempered.

For sure! And I think you are being entirely reasonable.

While the FUD machine pisses us all off - I believe it would be beneficial to the mechanics of this - the persistent and growing negativity purasuades others to join.

I would be shocked if we weren’t increasing short %/float the past month due to that, which just makes the mountain that much taller.
 
Does anyone else think he's driving the stock down on purpose?
Why, that would be illegal. Musk would never do that.

Of course, he's now stated in public that he intends to buy $20 million of stock (probably because he's irritated at giving $20 million to short-sellers). If he's buying that on the open market, a lower stock price certainly benefits him. But he'd never do that *intentionally*.
 
Did anyone else see this article (rare pro-Tesla on SA)

This part, about increase stake from the biggest shareholders... can anyone confirm? I thought I had heard/seen before that they had reduced their shares.

Institutional Owners Increasing Stakes In Tesla
According to Tesla’s latest 13F filings, Tesla’s largest investors have increased their stakes in the company since the year began. For example, FMR LLC is shown to own 21,069,452 Tesla shares; this is an increase of over 26% over the 16,698,292 shares the fund held at the beginning of this year. This is a position equivalent to roughly $6.2 billion (at $294), and represents about 12.35% of total Tesla shares outstanding.

Tesla’s second biggest holder Baillie Gifford & Co. also shows an increased position of 13,171,801 shares, vs 12,902,408 shares at the beginning of 2018. Tesla’s number 3 institutional holder, Price T Rowe also appears to have increased its stake in Tesla from 10,791,492 shares at the beginning of the year to 11,931,923 shares, an increase of about 10.6%. Tesla’s number 4 institutional holder Vanguard showed a slight increase from 6,948,808 to 6,977,408. And BlackRock, the number 5 institutional holder of Tesla’s stock also increased its stake from 5,617,973 shares at the beginning of this year to 6,459,236, showing an increase of 15%.

Combined, the top five institutional holders own about 59,609,820 shares or 35% of all the company’s outstanding shares. Once you factor in Elon Musk’s approximate 33.7 million shares, the top 6 holders of Tesla’s shares own a staggering 55% of all outstanding stock in the company. This is extremely concentrated ownership for a relatively large cap company, and amounts to roughly $27.6 billion. The large ownership stakes, and the increases in position sizes by all the major holders implies that Tesla’s top holders appear confident about higher stock prices going forward.

Tesla: Expect A Blockbuster Third Quarter - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

Blackrock increase shares - Elon complains about them...
Are they selling today?
 
I don't recommend it, but scrolling down today's Verizon Finance (face it, Yahoo's dead, it's Verizon now) page for TSLA, the news headlines are just dumb and dumberer.

Particularly fascinating to me, in a morbid way, is the willful illogic of the headlines. For example:

• Tesla Is Down 7%, Thanks to Musk's Tweets. . .
• Tesla Stock Tumbles After Musk's Swipes At SEC, Short Sellers

The articles never show any proof that A was caused by B. I remain skeptical that things are ever that simple. But in media-land, when it comes to Tesla, things are ALWAYS that simple.
Imagine the following scenarios:

A = Mary Smith wakes up at 4:37am to get to work early on a very busy day.
B = The sun rises at 5:45am.

Therefore, the headlines are:
• Sun makes surprise appearance after Mary Smith wakes
• Large flaming object appears at eastern horizon minutes after area woman gets out of bed

Or another:

A = Bob Jones gets off the bus at 10:11am in Tuscaloosa
B = Facebook stock drops 20% at 10:46am

Therefore, the headlines must be:
• Facebook plummets after Bob Jones gets off bus
• Facebook bloodbath blamed on Tuscaloosa bus passenger

I mean come on. One does not necessarily cause the other. Yet in media-land, that is always true.
 
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Did anyone else see this article (rare pro-Tesla on SA)

This part, about increase stake from the biggest shareholders... can anyone confirm? I thought I had heard/seen before that they had reduced their shares.

Institutional Owners Increasing Stakes In Tesla
According to Tesla’s latest 13F filings, Tesla’s largest investors have increased their stakes in the company since the year began. For example, FMR LLC is shown to own 21,069,452 Tesla shares; this is an increase of over 26% over the 16,698,292 shares the fund held at the beginning of this year. This is a position equivalent to roughly $6.2 billion (at $294), and represents about 12.35% of total Tesla shares outstanding.

Tesla’s second biggest holder Baillie Gifford & Co. also shows an increased position of 13,171,801 shares, vs 12,902,408 shares at the beginning of 2018. Tesla’s number 3 institutional holder, Price T Rowe also appears to have increased its stake in Tesla from 10,791,492 shares at the beginning of the year to 11,931,923 shares, an increase of about 10.6%. Tesla’s number 4 institutional holder Vanguard showed a slight increase from 6,948,808 to 6,977,408. And BlackRock, the number 5 institutional holder of Tesla’s stock also increased its stake from 5,617,973 shares at the beginning of this year to 6,459,236, showing an increase of 15%.

Combined, the top five institutional holders own about 59,609,820 shares or 35% of all the company’s outstanding shares. Once you factor in Elon Musk’s approximate 33.7 million shares, the top 6 holders of Tesla’s shares own a staggering 55% of all outstanding stock in the company. This is extremely concentrated ownership for a relatively large cap company, and amounts to roughly $27.6 billion. The large ownership stakes, and the increases in position sizes by all the major holders implies that Tesla’s top holders appear confident about higher stock prices going forward.

Tesla: Expect A Blockbuster Third Quarter - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
Someone is playing games with the NASDAQ numbers it would appear. The 13F filed in August for Q2 showed Fidelity sold shares to reduce themselves into third place. It was widely reported that Baillie Gifford had become the largest shareholder for Tesla after Elon himself.

Major Tesla owner Fidelity trimmed stake last quarter: SEC filing | Reuters
 
I am disappointed there seems to be no progress on the Model Y, or at least none announced due to the major delays in the 3 (CUV is where it is at...sedans not so much). Why focus on a niche roadster?

I think releasing Mod Y too soon will cannibalize M3. I think next step should be Semi+Roadster. Mod 3 sales are providing good cover while developing these. Part of the battle against ICE, actually a huge part of the battle, is changing perceptions. If the perception of EV is not there, they won't sell. It's kinda like inception. There's needs to be this deep rooted seed of a belief in each consumer that EV is cooler and better than ICE. May sound trivial but it's probably the biggest component to the game plan. Perception ultimately determines where the buyer's money will go. The Leaf/Prius, while good cars, are not good for perception in the long run. They aren't moving the needle for EV fast enough. They aren't sexy. They aren't badass. They are pragmatic. EV must be seen as badass.
And the ironic thing is that, the strengths of EV are torque, interior space, low center of gravity (lending to safety, performance) etc. Leaf/prius don't exploit these inherent strengths. It's value left on the table. And that's why it's not the right path for mass adoption.
Elon exploited the inherent strengths, changing the narrative from boring EV to badass EV.

Roadster and Semi will finalize that narrative. The neck breaking speed of Roadster will end the debate around which system is better for performance; and it will force the ferrari's and lambo's of the world to pivot aggressively to EV or prob die.
Re Semi, it's seems that's the first step in going down the truck route. First Semi, shifting the perception that Tesla can't make tough/brawny vehicles, then further exploiting the perception shift, release the pickup.

Then the Model Y. But idk, I haven't follow the product release map to a T. These are just high level thoughts.
 
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elon clearly is taking issue with the mechanics of short selling and the resourcefulness with which they operate.

einhorn, after horrible recent results, seizing the opportunity to issue a statement comparing tesla to lehman and calling tesla deceptive, cnbc all too willing to swallow it whole, without even a quick safety-whiff
...talk about the pot and the kettle

that is exactly why elon is doing this. not because he’s rattled, because he’s pointing out the biased, unbalanced, inefficient, and corrupt system for his 22.7mm followers and their followers to see and connect the dots themselves.

even people here talk as if a certain event will cause the stock to move one way or the other. it rarely works that way. tsla even less so.
the drop in stock price happens regardless what elon says or does at this time, because it has to!

inv banks/hf’s/hft’s won’t make money unless it goes the opposite way everyone expects it to go based upon the ramp successes and failures.
they jerk it around to shake all the money away from each other and us, and then let it rip upwards once they delever... and then restart the whole cycle again!

it’s like an inverse bubble, except it deflates on the “rise” and inflates and pops on the deleveraging
 
A lot of the selling, I'm pretty sure, is Fidelity. I heard their Tesla bull got replaced for a metoo movement reason. They've been unloading ever since.
Fidelity is, like, dozens of separate funds.

One of the funds has been unloading after Gavin Baker was fired for harassing his staff. (Abigail Johnson doesn't tolerate that.) His replacement is not so into Tesla.

The other funds are pretty much holding the course.
 
I don't recommend it, but scrolling down today's Verizon Finance (face it, Yahoo's dead, it's Verizon now) page for TSLA, the news headlines are just dumb and dumberer.

Particularly fascinating to me, in a morbid way, is the wilful illogic of the headlines. For example:

• Tesla Is Down 7%, Thanks to Musk's Tweets. . .
• Tesla Stock Tumbles After Musk's Swipes At SEC, Short Sellers

The articles never show any proof that A was caused by B. I remain skeptical that things are ever that simple. But in media-land, when it comes to Tesla, things are ALWAYS that simple.
Imagine the following scenarios:

A = Mary Smith wakes up at 4:37am to get to work early on a very busy day.
B = The sun rises at 5:45am.

Therefore, the headlines are:
• Sun makes surprise appearance after Mary Smith wakes
• Large flaming object appears at eastern horizon minutes after area woman gets out of bed

Or another:

A = Bob Jones gets off the bus at 10:11am in Tuscaloosa
B = Facebook stock drops 20% at 10:46am

Therefore, the headlines must be:
• Facebook plummets after Bob Jones gets off bus
• Facebook bloodbath blamed on Tuscaloosa bus passenger

I mean come on. One does not necessarily cause the other. Yet in media-land, that is always true.

This has been a standard problem with all "business reporting" for decades. They always claim a "reason" for stock price moves, with no evidence whatsoever.
 
guys, after spending more than 30 hours in the past 7 days alone analyzing $tsla my opinion at this moment is that this is a major buying opportunity. Ignore negativity and you will see that the fundamentals are for the first time not totally overvalued but actually quite realistic. Just my two cents going into an uncertain weekend holding 160 stocks and a strong believe that there is real long term value in this company.
 
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