TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[humbaba]

People just don't comprehend how serious the short factor is. 33 million shares DO NOT get covered casually. A dramatic squeeze is inevitable. Not a pipe dream.

Oh, I realize that it is a lot of short sales. But retail shorts are the ones who get margin called and they do not have an appreciable fraction of that short interest. Institutional shorting can and quite possibly will get out slowly.

Please note: I'm not saying it can't happen, I just don't agree that it is inevitable. There is a lot of range in the possible outcomes due to many factors. Just consider the evidence that there is short covering going on now. If what I saw was right and there were 750k shorts covered this morning then short interest saw a notable decline with negligible upward movement. A month of that is enough to reduce any possibility of a short squeeze. Of course, if it happened that quickly buying interest would likely increase so to happen without perturbing the price it would likely need to be done over a longer period of time.

My point is just that no one can be certain that there will, or will not, be a short squeeze.

 

[beachbum77]

You do realize Tesla's not planning to *ship* Model 3 to China, they're planning to *manufacture* them in China? The US production will be completely claimed by US and European buyers for quite a while.

You apparently did not read the post I was responding to. Of course I know they have no currrent plans to ship Model 3 to China.

 

[Nocturnal]

Look! News headlines can even be stupid and FUD-dy on the pro-Tesla side:
View attachment 341110

So many brainless journalists or editors...

No, morons, company stats do NOT reveal that.

You could argue that, but without the extra data of when those EAP miles occurred (presumably highways without lane changes etc.) it isn't super useful. Still, the bit about Tesla drivers being better is nice to see.

 

[brian45011]

Also, Elon could pressure the top institutional to not lend shares out.
.

Lets hope he did that with whomever he pledged 13,774,897 shares of his 33,632,421 shares to secure his personal indebtedness.

 

[dmunjal]

Market freaked out due to strong unemployment causing 10 year yield to rise to 7 year high because investors are afraid that inflation will shoot up and Fed will have to raise rates quicker. high yield might mean more rotation into bonds. that said, I believe this is only temporary thinking because the Fed isn't stupid, trump's pro-stock market, as well as robust economic growth and strong earnings.

I think we stay in a downtrend until the next Fed meeting in December. If they pause the rate hike, the market uptrend returns.

If they raise again and continue to be hawkish, the entire market will take a hit.

 

[SpaceCash]

I think we stay in a downtrend until the next Fed meeting in December. If they pause the rate hike, the market uptrend returns.

If they raise again and continue to be hawkish, the entire market will take a hit.

This really, really can't go much lower. Like at all.

 

[BenPrice]

Oh, I realize that it is a lot of short sales. But retail shorts are the ones who get margin called and they do not have an appreciable fraction of that short interest. Institutional shorting can and quite possibly will get out slowly.

Please note: I'm not saying it can't happen, I just don't agree that it is inevitable. There is a lot of range in the possible outcomes due to many factors. Just consider the evidence that there is short covering going on now. If what I saw was right and there were 750k shorts covered this morning then short interest saw a notable decline with negligible upward movement. A month of that is enough to reduce any possibility of a short squeeze. Of course, if it happened that quickly buying interest would likely increase so to happen without perturbing the price it would likely need to be done over a longer period of time.

My point is just that no one can be certain that there will, or will not, be a short squeeze.

I believe it is inevitable, due to the % of float, only if Tesla is successful. I believe Tesla will be successful because their products are the best, by far, on an emerging market.

 

[brian45011]

From a macro market level, interest rates (bond yields) are rising fast. That makes debt (which governments have a ton of) more expensive to service. Also if yields are high more money will flow there instead of in riskier assets like property or stocks.

It's nothing crazy just a healthy correction for the time being.

2019 notes trading under par today. Bonds Detail

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

I beat you by 10 cents. I'm out of dry powder until payday, but I'm 90% of the way to my 100 share goal.

Funny. I’m at 90% of my goal of 100 shares too, but if it goes down any further I might overshoot

 

[humbaba]

I believe it is inevitable, due to the % of float, only if Tesla is successful. I believe Tesla will be successful because their products are the best, by far, on an emerging market.

And what if the percent of float is less than you think due to quiet covering? That's rather my point.

 

[shrspeedblade]

Either the fundamentals of the company are good, or they're not. A spike or dip in stock price, especially this stock, isn't exactly an accurate barometer of either. I just checked to remind myself, and it took Amazon nearly 14 years before the stock really took off. Are you willing to wait that long?

In my fairly uniformed opinion Tesla isn't a get rich quit scheme any longer, that was only the 30-380 speculative jump that has come and gone. It's hard to remember on this board that to most people this is just another stock, and they trade it like just another stock. So we'll need to see sustained positive results for it to have its turn to take off.

Still a good buying opportunity if you believe in it, though.
Since I am so fairly uniformed, put this in the "not an advice" catergory.

 

[humbaba]

Okay, so it looks like $266 is the lowest low for today? NOT GOOD ENOUGH.

Shorts, I'm looking for <$250 (sure, this is a good buy already, but I need some really good justification for losing diversity). I've asked twice for drops and gotten them, c'mon, don't let me down.

I have to say, I'm disappointed. The low today is $260.00 (according to Market Watch) and the shorts are running out of time. I'm trying to have faith, but its hard. C'mon, I need <$250 pretty please

 

[BenPrice]

And what if the percent of float is less than you think due to quiet covering? That's rather my point.

Possible for sure, but that’s a LOT of covering that has to occur...at average volume it’s over a week of only covering transactions, and due to the negative hype, every closed position may be offset by an expanded or new position.

 

[LordAstinus]

$TSLA short interest update: 32.63 million shares / 25.6% of float. Bearish speculators are up over half a billion dollars on paper today after @elonmusk "SEC" tweet. Read the latest note on http://shortingtesla.com or directly on our website http://www.s3partners.net @S3Partners

Matthew S Unterman on Twitter

 

[humbaba]

Possible for sure, but that’s a LOT of covering that has to occur...at average volume it’s over a week of only covering transactions, and due to the negative hype, every closed position may be offset by an expanded or new position.

It doesn't have to be all of it. The power of a squeeze comes from having a high fraction shorted so the lower the percentage the less dramatic the squeeze. A sliding scale.

Reminder: I'm rooting for the short burn of the century. I just try to keep my expectations tempered.

 

[LordAstinus]

$TSLA short interest update: 32.63 million shares / 25.6% of float. Bearish speculators are up over half a billion dollars on paper today after @elonmusk "SEC" tweet. Read the latest note on http://shortingtesla.com or directly on our website http://www.s3partners.net @S3Partners

Matthew S Unterman on Twitter

Keep in mind this is up until yesterday before "The tweet" 2.0.

 

[humbaba]

$TSLA short interest update: 32.63 million shares / 25.6% of float. Bearish speculators are up over half a billion dollars on paper today after @elonmusk "SEC" tweet. Read the latest note on http://shortingtesla.com or directly on our website http://www.s3partners.net @S3Partners

Matthew S Unterman on Twitter

Ah, good to have the information. Comparing that with his previous update, short interest is increasing. Which fits better with the stock price action.

C'mon, shorty shorts! I want you to sell me some loaned shares for <$250!

 

[brian45011]

People just don't comprehend how serious the short factor is. 33 million shares DO NOT get covered casually. A dramatic squeeze is inevitable. Not a pipe dream.

Focusing solely on short interest without consideration of positions in the options market leads to false impressions.

 

[SpaceCash]

$TSLA short interest update: 32.63 million shares / 25.6% of float. Bearish speculators are up over half a billion dollars on paper today after @elonmusk "SEC" tweet. Read the latest note on http://shortingtesla.com or directly on our website http://www.s3partners.net @S3Partners

Matthew S Unterman on Twitter

And when they're short at these super-depressed-prices, all the better for the burn

 

[humbaba]

Keep in mind this is up until yesterday before "The tweet" 2.0.

Still, its what we have. The indications of coverage only suggested about the amount of that increase so not likely to be dropping. C'mon, where's my <$250?