Don't make assumptions about the thought process here. What you've just said is basically a non-statement
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humbaba
sleeping until $7000
Sure, there's more to market action than just short interest. But, if a squeeze *does* happen the severity of it is going to be accentuated by higher short interest.
bdy0627
Active Member
Does anyone else think he's driving the stock down on purpose? (I give credit to Bob the Jockey on this one, he got me thinking). Consider that he's executing flawlessly with production and market growth. Do people really thing EM is a baby with his temper tantrum tweets? Even saying "Pilot to Nav is difficult"... not false and good thing he didn't deploy before being fully vetted. He's still years ahead. Ignore GM claims to clarify what's obvious about what CR is actually measuring (maintaining driver awareness vs autopilot capability). A water pistol in the face and some shocks from the seat would work even better.
To quote EM, "Ignore the headlines", and I say "ignore his tweets." If you're in it for a quick buck, oh well. If you're in long, does any tweet really matter? If he doesn't need to borrow, he's string free. He's just challenging a broken system is all IMO. If the market wasn't so volatile, I'd even buy more, and last purchase was at $279. But now it's really on sale. Think about it, what has changed?
Oh people comprehend. However, after five years of people saying the sky is falling ( I guess reversed) , you become somewhat immune to it. The CEO himself called for a massive squeeze in 'three weeks'. did that happen?
in my opinion, there is literally NOTHING that can cause a squeeze at this point in time. There has just been way to much over-promising, and under-delivering.
Forget about the tweets, Tesla's main problem has been execution. If the execution was there, the tweets would be nullified.
I am disappointed, as an investor in the lack of progress on the solar roofs, and Tesla Energy in general. I am disappointed there seems to be no progress on the Model Y, or at least none announced due to the major delays in the 3 (CUV is where it is at...sedans not so much). Why focus on a niche roadster? will the volumes and margins bring in that much cash to compensate for the designs/engineers that could be working on more mass market vehicles, which is after all the whole mission? I am really super disappointed in this mad-crazy-definitively-unsustainable end of quarter rush. From another thread customers cars were sold from out from under them, as they needed to schedule delivery in Q4. Seriously? This is so wrong in so many different ways.I am disappointed I likely will have to lease again , rather than buy a base model 3.
So, if you think a barely profitable quarter, which was predicted will get us a squeeze, or a profitable q4, so be it. i bet it will not. stock needs to go up nearly 50 per cent..just to get to where we were.
Agreed. The media is consistently dumbing us down with factually incorrect statements, incongruence and poor logic.
The only possible thing that could follow from this data, autopilot with the assistance of human driver drives better than human driver alone (aka driver assistance). But even to conclude that some more data would be needed.
There won't be a recession in 2020, or at least nothing serious. Why? Because there's a giant Third Industrial Revolution happening: the switch to solar, wind, batteries, and electric cars. When you have huge businesses booming at 50% growth rates... and hiring increasing correspondingly... you do NOT get serious recessions.
The time to worry about a recession is when solar, wind, batteries, and EVs are reaching market saturation, approaching 100%. Since they're the growth sectors of the economy, think about what happens when they all simultaneously stop growing. The relentless trend of automation is still reducing the total available number of jobs, the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer which reduces discretionary consumer spending -- the end of the Great Energy Transition is when these trends resume their dominance and recession hits.
That's my analysis & has been for years.
humbaba
sleeping until $7000
I don't think he is. For two reasons: 1) they impute a basic dishonesty/deceptiveness to Elon Musk that seems out of character. 2) they assume the stock price going down is because of tweets rather than macros, shorts, the weather in France and other more important things.
I disagree with the fact there has been poor execution. Sure we all expected more because we were told more was possible. Short of missing guidance that was given. If guidance wasn’t over optimistic, what has been achieved is truly incredible and shouldn’t be discounted.
dqd88
Member
Did anyone else see this article (rare pro-Tesla on SA)
This part, about increase stake from the biggest shareholders... can anyone confirm? I thought I had heard/seen before that they had reduced their shares.
Institutional Owners Increasing Stakes In Tesla
According to Tesla’s latest 13F filings, Tesla’s largest investors have increased their stakes in the company since the year began. For example, FMR LLC is shown to own 21,069,452 Tesla shares; this is an increase of over 26% over the 16,698,292 shares the fund held at the beginning of this year. This is a position equivalent to roughly $6.2 billion (at $294), and represents about 12.35% of total Tesla shares outstanding.
Tesla’s second biggest holder Baillie Gifford & Co. also shows an increased position of 13,171,801 shares, vs 12,902,408 shares at the beginning of 2018. Tesla’s number 3 institutional holder, Price T Rowe also appears to have increased its stake in Tesla from 10,791,492 shares at the beginning of the year to 11,931,923 shares, an increase of about 10.6%. Tesla’s number 4 institutional holder Vanguard showed a slight increase from 6,948,808 to 6,977,408. And BlackRock, the number 5 institutional holder of Tesla’s stock also increased its stake from 5,617,973 shares at the beginning of this year to 6,459,236, showing an increase of 15%.
Combined, the top five institutional holders own about 59,609,820 shares or 35% of all the company’s outstanding shares. Once you factor in Elon Musk’s approximate 33.7 million shares, the top 6 holders of Tesla’s shares own a staggering 55% of all outstanding stock in the company. This is extremely concentrated ownership for a relatively large cap company, and amounts to roughly $27.6 billion. The large ownership stakes, and the increases in position sizes by all the major holders implies that Tesla’s top holders appear confident about higher stock prices going forward.
Tesla: Expect A Blockbuster Third Quarter - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
This part, about increase stake from the biggest shareholders... can anyone confirm? I thought I had heard/seen before that they had reduced their shares.
Institutional Owners Increasing Stakes In Tesla
According to Tesla’s latest 13F filings, Tesla’s largest investors have increased their stakes in the company since the year began. For example, FMR LLC is shown to own 21,069,452 Tesla shares; this is an increase of over 26% over the 16,698,292 shares the fund held at the beginning of this year. This is a position equivalent to roughly $6.2 billion (at $294), and represents about 12.35% of total Tesla shares outstanding.
Tesla’s second biggest holder Baillie Gifford & Co. also shows an increased position of 13,171,801 shares, vs 12,902,408 shares at the beginning of 2018. Tesla’s number 3 institutional holder, Price T Rowe also appears to have increased its stake in Tesla from 10,791,492 shares at the beginning of the year to 11,931,923 shares, an increase of about 10.6%. Tesla’s number 4 institutional holder Vanguard showed a slight increase from 6,948,808 to 6,977,408. And BlackRock, the number 5 institutional holder of Tesla’s stock also increased its stake from 5,617,973 shares at the beginning of this year to 6,459,236, showing an increase of 15%.
Combined, the top five institutional holders own about 59,609,820 shares or 35% of all the company’s outstanding shares. Once you factor in Elon Musk’s approximate 33.7 million shares, the top 6 holders of Tesla’s shares own a staggering 55% of all outstanding stock in the company. This is extremely concentrated ownership for a relatively large cap company, and amounts to roughly $27.6 billion. The large ownership stakes, and the increases in position sizes by all the major holders implies that Tesla’s top holders appear confident about higher stock prices going forward.
Tesla: Expect A Blockbuster Third Quarter - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
Agreed. Remember, Apple and Amazon still have massive short interest. Which is frankly insane. The short-sellers just won't give up. I guess they only give up when they run out of money.
Battery shortage. Not sure when it'll be relieved, but possibly after Panasonic's three new cell lines spin up at the Gigafactory.
Solar Roof apparently needed "more iterations" and for the last year the company's been pointing to mid-2019.
The Roadster's basically an easy side project. I think they tried to set the price high enough to make the margins massive. It's basically using Model 3 packs.
I think the Semi is the priority right now, ahead of Model Y; it'll be easier to manufacture (less capex-intensive) *and* have higher margins.
This was a disaster. I hope they don't do it again. They need to get their act together.
A lot of positions will be closed out shortly before trading stops until Monday pre-marketI have to say, I'm disappointed. The low today is $260.00 (according to Market Watch) and the shorts are running out of time. I'm trying to have faith, but its hard. C'mon, I need <$250 pretty please
Nope. I read all the 4D chess comments, but I don't think so. As I said in a previous post, I think his personality, his whole being is fighting caving, admitting defeat for technical reasons when he knows he is right. Same thing with the pedo guy comments. He listens to others, his intellect processes the rational thing is to stand down and apologize, move on, but then a few weeks pass and it is eating him up inside and he can't help himself.
Apologies for the amateur psychology lesson, not my trade, this is just how i explain it to myself.
I agree. We’re in an amazing paradigm shift with a prolific explosion of new technologies. Days like today and yesterday and, hell, a few days before that...are frustrating but, IMO, it’d be a huge mistake to stay out of stocks over the next few years and, in particular, to stay out of TSLA. Being long is often frustrating but being short would scare me to death...
Exciting times...
Exciting times...
I've got over a six year lead on you in data for assessing the thought process here.
How much below par? That could just be down to changes in interest rates; they should trade enough below par to make the yield higher than the *current* T-bill yield for the same period.
Why not? It's been 8 years so far.
humbaba
sleeping until $7000
I'm not convinced that institutional holding reflects well or poorly on a stock, but this would seem to confirm a suspicion I had that part of the going private withdrawal was a commitment by institutional investors to go farther in on $TSLA.
Note: I realize that doesn't prove my suspicion correct (and historically there has been a lot of fluctuation in institutional ownership which reduces any meaning that could be imputed to this).
[edited for stupid composition typo]
Short interest was increasing until last night. Today, we don't really know. They may have been covering today. We'll know next week.
There were 100,000 shares available for shorting in IB on Monday. There are 1.5 million as we speak. Different things can cause an increase in supply, but one of them is shorts covering (which would be the smart move until the Q3 numbers are released or there's a new batch of bad news).
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