TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[KarenRei]

Still, its down. Wonder if its triggered any of KarenRei's buys? I'm watching for how low it goes before doing my last hurrah.

None yet. Low point was $257,85, more than a dollar over my first buy point for the day.

 

[Teslie]

260 didn‘t hold:

 

[Webeevdrivers]

There is a dude on a hobby forum I follow from time to time. He is a self proclaimed expert on everything. He keeps mentioning a 360 dollar stock price is needed by next spring (specific date, can’t remember). If the stock doesn’t hit this price it is automatically over for Tesla. Any idea what he is talking about. Why 360. Anything significant happening next spring that causes him and a dozen others to drone on about the end is near? The guy is annoying...although from the way he conducts himself he seems like he could be 15 years old. Still curious as I don’t understand big company finance.

 

[aznt1217]

Overall Macros are looking like garbage at the moment. We need a profitable Q3 to turn this around.

 

[sundaymorning]

Basically here's what needs to happen.

Tesla needs to move from losing the media war:
# positive stories * avg impact of each story < # negative stories * avg impact of each story

To winning the media war:
# positive stories * avg impact of each story > # negative stories * avg impact of each story

There are two ways to achieve this. One approach is to lower the # negative stories and/or their avg impact. However, this is extremely difficult because of the distributed nature of the Internet. Basically, these negative stories against Tesla are coming from everywhere. And you can try to whack-a-mole but it will pop out another hole.

The other approach, and the much more effective and wise approach, is to focus on generating more positive stories. In other words, you need to generate so many positive stories that they outweigh and out-influence the negative stories.

This is the path forward Tesla needs to take.

Just blaming shortsellers has gotten us nowhere and will get us nowhere.

I’ve been thinking about this post, and it makes a lot of sense. Tesla needs to control its own narrative and that means promoting good news, good vibes, climate awareness, satefty, etc. Basically set up a PR team around the car, the environment and try to foster metal support for Elon so he doesn’t feel the need to tweet and defend the company against attacks. It would also help if Elon can try his best to stay positive and learn to let go of nonsense, take a punch on the chin for the “team” sometimes and things should fall into place.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Little bit off topic, but it’s really quiet here on the NIO-subject. It went up 100% in a few days time and I saw some posts in this thread from people buying into that trend. But if had crashed completely since then and is back to where it started.

 

[Teslie]

There is a dude on a hobby forum I follow from time to time. He is a self proclaimed expert on everything. He keeps mentioning a 360 dollar stock price is needed by next spring (specific date, can’t remember). If the stock doesn’t hit this price it is automatically over for Tesla. Any idea what he is talking about. Why 360. Anything significant happening next spring that causes him and a dozen others to drone on about the end is near?

The 920 mn $ convertible due in March with strike price of about 360$...

 

[humbaba]

None yet. Low point was $257,85, more than a dollar over my first buy point for the day.

I guess that point has passed

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I meant ~3% of new car consumers in Markets Tesla operates in.

Not including 3% of 3 year olds in India. Etc

I used only adults in US for that figure(in 2014, there were ~125 million adults living in the US). 3% of global population would be 210 million people.

 

[ZachF]

We're now bouncing around the lower end of Tesla's long term up trend channel, If it breaks below this level it could go much lower IMHO...

If it holds it could go higher pretty quick.

 

[Tslynk67]

I think for investors the stock price is always relevant. Meaning, without dividends the only way to make money off of $TSLA is to sell the stock so for an investor it is important that the price be above their average buy in when they are looking to sell.

I'm long, but at some point I'll have to make some money off of this...

Sure, I'm long too, with a time-horizon of anything between now and 2030, so I don't really care for the moment.

But what if, through manipulation, the SP went down to, say, $100, but Tesla was shifting 500k cars per year in mid-2019 - would it could for anything? Would Tesla be at risk of going bust over the SP, even though business was booming and they were making, for the sake or argument $15b a year profits?

Maybe it's an odd question, the SP does seem to be quite out of step with the reality at times.

 

[humbaba]

Little bit off topic, but it’s really quiet here on the NIO-subject. It went up 100% in a few days time and I saw some posts in this thread from people buying into that trend. But if had crashed completely since then and is back to where it started.

well, that would be topical for the NIO market action thread

 

[AlexS]

wow, stock is getting killed today. they really need to bring earings call to an earlier date. its getting very ugly, at least for me, I can't buy anymore this month.

 

[humbaba]

Sure, I'm long too, with a time-horizon of anything between now and 2030, so I don't really care for the moment.

But what if, through manipulation, the SP went down to, say, $100, but Tesla was shifting 500k cars per year in mid-2019 - would it could for anything? Would Tesla be at risk of going bust over the SP, even though business was booming and they were making, for the sake or argument $15b a year profits?

Maybe it's an odd question, the SP does seem to be quite out of step with the reality at times.

I don't see how the SP is relevant to Tesla being in business -- the only thing it would do is affect some money raising operations. So for Tesla itself, I don't think it really matters that much. For Elon, I think it matters because part of employee compensation is stocks and he wants them to be compensated for the company doing well. For investors it matters (at the time of selling the stock) because it determines profitability.

So it all depends on POV.

 

[GregRF]

Worst thing about the Iron Man movies is all the ICE supercars Tony Stark is driving,. Was maybe understandable for the first one, but 2 and 3 needed a Model S (maybe crushing a d-bag villain in a supercar to explain why).

The original Tesla roadster was in the original movie in Tony Stark's garage:

I keep saying I'm done buying stock, but than another opportunity arises...

 

[tivoboy]

I’ve moved my nibble add level down to $24x. That would only be 10-15% of the next position. I’d like to add there or lower. Up to 50% of the position at $23x. From there I’ll sell calls at 295$ for earnings in Nov but call options pricing has really fallen today. I don’t think anything above $300 calls will be rich enough in premium to warrant sales and I’d like to see the nov $300 get to 15$ soon to sell that strike.

Just keep lowering your stops

 

[Webeevdrivers]

The 920 mn $ convertible due in March with strike price of about 360$...

Thanks for the response but what does that mean? If Tesla can’t pay 920 million to someone it’s over?? Sorry, just not up on this stuff.

 

[gringotuanis]

There is a dude on a hobby forum I follow from time to time. He is a self proclaimed expert on everything. He keeps mentioning a 360 dollar stock price is needed by next spring (specific date, can’t remember). If the stock doesn’t hit this price it is automatically over for Tesla. Any idea what he is talking about. Why 360. Anything significant happening next spring that causes him and a dozen others to drone on about the end is near? The guy is annoying...although from the way he conducts himself he seems like he could be 15 years old. Still curious as I don’t understand big company finance.

This is not true. It's a convertible bond that comes due in March for about $950 million...so if the share price is not at $360 to convert then Tesla has to repay the bond with cash. So Tesla will need $950 million on hand if share price below $360, that's all. If they raise some more funds soon though, that will be a non issue. If they can't raise funds, then it could be an issue though in my opinion it's extremely unkikunl they won't be able to raise a few billion more to fund the debt and the next factory for Model Y. Disclosure I'm long Tesla via stock and options.

 

[humbaba]

Thanks for the response but what does that mean? If Tesla can’t pay 920 million to someone it’s over?? Sorry, just not up on this stuff.

It would be a problem if Tesla couldn't pay its debts. But that isn't a serious concern given their financial health. Plenty of information on that in this thread and elsewhere (see @luvb2b's work). But the supposed lack of financial health is a common FUD point.

 

[sundaymorning]

There is a dude on a hobby forum I follow from time to time. He is a self proclaimed expert on everything. He keeps mentioning a 360 dollar stock price is needed by next spring (specific date, can’t remember). If the stock doesn’t hit this price it is automatically over for Tesla. Any idea what he is talking about. Why 360. Anything significant happening next spring that causes him and a dozen others to drone on about the end is near?

There is a note of about $900 million in bonds due in March. Tesla should be adding cash to its $2.2 billion in reserves from now till then to pay off debt (remember we should be cash flow positive this quarter). Also, Elon has stated many times that we should be highly cash flow positive in the 4th quarter. To expand production from 5k/ week to 10k/ week would only cost the company minimally, around $100 million in Capex. Hence, we should have a lot of time and plenty of money to cover those incoming debt as well as to expand production.

Make no mistake about it, Tesla can raise money at will. Elon can also leverage SpaceX to finance debt. Would you rather trust a random guy on the internet, who is basically shorting? Or Elon, someone who has a perfect track record in raising capital and has stated “I would have to be totally incapacitated to give up.” I don’t see him giving up when SpaceX is basically a cash cow, worth in the vicinity of $30 billion. Borrowing a few billion against that value shouldn’t be a problem imo.