TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[SpaceCash]

Markets in general are screwed up today. I'm considering selling my Aug 2K19 calls to buy some shorter term calls. This puppy's gotta turn around soon.



Rappers aren't concerned about the SP:

"I'm a wolf in a Tesla, F**K your Lamb"

Brendan Lounsbery on Instagram: “Started tracking a brand new song for you all! What you're hearing here is a str8 take with no edits or ad libs, tell me it ain't…”

 

[humbaba]

Markets in general are screwed up today. I'm considering selling my Aug 2K19 calls to buy some shorter term calls. This puppy's gotta turn around soon.



Rappers aren't concerned about the SP:

"I'm a wolf in a Tesla, F**K your Lamb"

Brendan Lounsbery on Instagram: “Started tracking a brand new song for you all! What you're hearing here is a str8 take with no edits or ad libs, tell me it ain't…”

Not an advice.

Never underestimate the power of twitter. One wrong tweet about punishing China some more and things could go farther south in a hurry.

Not an advice.

 

[wipster]

They do not pencil out. Just too expensive to operate a Model 3 full-time without commercial access to SC use. The monthly payments, lack of a lease program, higher insurance, and shorter warranty on drivetrain and battery pack just don't work for high mileage operations. Without SC access a driver is limited to what he can charge at home for hours of operation. It would only work for a very part-time gig and perhaps for a referral-gathering exercise.

Using a decent MPG gas car gives a driver a much better ROI. There are some nice late model sedans and vans on the used market for $11-15,000 with lots of rear seat legroom, wider seating, or third-row seating, and larger cargo spaces. Even with gas and maintenance, they pencil out much better than a base $50,000 Model 3 without in-town SC access.

To quote the Joker, "Why so serious?"

 

[Aieukl378]

Please, Musk, you're killing us with your twitter account! All of that stuff about SpaceX and successfully doing a ground landing in California has the stock market tanking! NASDAQ and Dow are both down. Companies are failing left and right. To save the economy the fed has been forced to hike the interest rate and to knock Nio into submission our President has escalated the trade war with China.

Please! Musk, we're desperate. Close your twitter account so that the stock market can recover!

Very funny but this is Tesla specific. Also, you really don't want to see your stock tank on good news( as you've pointed out: successful landing, best safety ratings etc.) and this is on top of last weeks disaster. Yeah he needs to delete his Twitter account.

 

[KarenRei]

2.4 million shares available for shorting in IB...

IBorrow Desk

How does that compare to historic levels? That's about $600m at current market prices.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

2.4 million shares available for shorting in IB...

IBorrow Desk

Yea - it looks like this is mostly institutional selling. I wouldn't be surprised if a couple of the top 10 have left in the last few days, because I can see it being difficult to explain Elon's tweets to clients, so the investment managers are probably prioritizing their careers before any hypothetical return/risk calculation. Retail investors are unfortunately caught in the middle of the drama. None of the fundamentals, from upcoming profitability, to growing production, to safety, all of the things that 40,000 Tesla employees achieved, seem to matter today, most likely because of the dark clouds brought upon Tesla by numerous unforced errors.

 

[beachbum77]

Remember, people: 3 1/2 weeks until the Q3 report. For contrast, the Joe Rogan podcast was over a month ago.

Karen, what exactly are you expecting to see in the Q3 report?

 

[beachbum77]

Yea - it looks like this is mostly institutional selling. I wouldn't be surprised if a couple of the top 10 have left in the last few days, because I can see it being difficult to explain Elon's tweets to clients, so the investment managers are probably prioritizing their careers before any hypothetical return/risk calculation. Retail investors are unfortunately caught in the middle of the drama. None of the fundamentals, from upcoming profitability, to growing production, to safety, all of the things that 35,000+ Tesla employees achieved, seems to matter, because of the dark clouds brought upon with unforced errors.

I agree. As you and I both track the 13F activity we know Fidelity did not increase their holdings in Q2 but actually reduced them. Nasdaq mistook a revised 13F and instead added the revised amount to the reported Fidelity holdings and for some reason will not correct their listings. That will surely cause some upset when the new reported holdings come out around November 15th and will show Fidelity selling off over 10-12 million shares in relation to their erroneous Q2 number of 21 million.

Nasdaq is certainly not doing Tesla any favors by misreporting the Fidelity holdings.

 

[Krugerrand]

The numbers I crunched for a friend were based on a full-time operation and did not work. As I said, using a Model 3 on a part-time basis to gather referrals as a bonus to a few bucks in your pocket could be very effective. Just do not forget to factor in depreciation for the miles you are driving. Your 120,000-mile warranty is finite.

Yep, and every Tesla self-destructs as soon as battery and drivetrain warranty is up. Poof! Just like that.

 

[LordAstinus]

Yea - it looks like this is mostly institutional selling. I wouldn't be surprised if a couple of the top 10 have left in the last few days, because I can see it being difficult to explain Elon's tweets to clients, so the investment managers are probably prioritizing their careers before any hypothetical return/risk calculation. Retail investors are unfortunately caught in the middle of the drama. None of the fundamentals, from upcoming profitability, to growing production, to safety, all of the things that 40,000 Tesla employees achieved, seem to matter today, most likely because of the dark clouds brought upon Tesla by numerous unforced errors.

Agreed on the institutional selling and careers. On unforced errors, they're probably unforced, but amplified more than it's fair, IMO.

 

[KarenRei]

Karen, what exactly are you expecting to see in the Q3 report?

Small profit or small near-profit excluding ZEV credits, boosted by ZEV credits. Most likely a small (de minimis) GAAP profit, given the amount of careful tweaking of pricing and spending that's been obvious throughout Q3. The only reason I'm not near-certain that there will be one is the failure to reiterate guidance for a Q3 GAAP profit excl. ZEV credits in the delivery report.

The importance has, obviously, nothing to do with any lack or presence of profit on Q3. It's about how it changes the messaging. Even a near-miss eliminates the "incinerating cash" talking point. The debate transforms to a "one time engineered quarter vs. sustained profit" debate, which is much more favourable messaging.

There's still lots of potential bombs to be lobbed in the coming months, though.

 

[beachbum77]

To quote the Joker, "Why so serious?"

Lol... I am a numbers guy and Uber is a numbers game. When I am asked to render an opinion for a potential Uber driver I take the task seriously since my reputation is on the line.

As a matter of observation, I have yet to take an Uber ride in a car that was less than five years old. I make a point of asking about their car selections.

 

[SpaceCash]

Hey seriously, PSA: STOP REPLYING TO THE SMOKEY BIRD BUMS

They get paid by the response. That's why sometimes they literally will demand that you respond to them. Cut off their supply. Funnys and disagree reacts only. This is not my first rodeo with these clowns. TrendTrader007 and I interacted with these guys before with the penny stock SKTO. I believe some of the paid bashers here are the same people we dealt with back then.

STOP REPLYING TO THEM. It's literally their pathetic livelihood

 

[ZachF]

Testing $250 now....

 

[gora321]

Let's see what Benjamin Graham said in such situation:

Intelligent investors capitalise on market fluctuations.

17. “Price fluctuations have only one significant meaning for the true investor. They provide him with an opportunity to buy wisely when prices fall sharply and to sell wisely when they advance a great deal.” (pg. 205)

18. “The intelligent investor should recognise that market panics can create great prices for good companies and good prices for great companies.” (pg. 483)

19. “A defensive investor can always prosper by looking patiently and calmly through the wreckage of a bear market.” (pg. 371)

The difference between the value and the SP is rising. I'm preparing...

 

[sundaymorning]

The entire market is down, and so are all FANG stocks. A relief rally will likely occur once we show numbers.

 

[Krugerrand]

Use commas, this thing ",", so that people can understand what you are saying.....

I can translate for you. He said: ‘I wish all of you would take your own advice, delete your TMC accounts and go on vacation.’

 

[sundaymorning]

Here’s some perspective for the investment community. October tends to be a down month:

October Effect

We’ve experience dips before in October.

 

[beachbum77]

Yep, and every Tesla self-destructs as soon as battery and drivetrain warranty is up. Poof! Just like that.

LOL...Never said that. But if you read the reports from high mileage Model S owners some have had multiple motor replacements and a few have had pack replacements (all for free under the unlimited mile warranty). No one outside Tesla knows what the cost of a Model 3 motor or pack replacement will cost. I can get an ICE motor or transmission replaced with a rebuilt unit in less than a week for a couple thousand dollars at worst.

The only report I have read on the cost of a battery pack was from a guy who somehow destroyed the pack in his Roadster by leaving it unplugged for six months in storage and Tesla wanted $32,500 plus labor.

 

[X Fan]

Beyond twitter, there has to be share price impact from production still projected to average below 5K...I believe Bloomberg is only showing 4.2K right now.

Thoughts?