TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Driver Dave]

I will say the relentless FUD has taken a huge toll.

Over the weekend I had countless encounters with people who are either:

Person A
* Knows all the negative talking points
* Knows nothing of the model 3 sales

Person B
* Knows "I just got a Tesla M3, holy shmoly is this awesome, I'll never buy a gas car again."

Unfortunately there many more As than Bs at least right now.

But, it is only a matter a time before this tide turns and news gets out that:

* Clearly Tesla's sales are taking a bit out of the old auto guys
* Ford business is horrible and getting worse
* Model 3 clearly a great historical product and will only get bigger
* Tesla is selling Toyota numbers at BMW prices, so Q3/4numbers... maybe great?

But... at what point are will there be "short and distort" lawsuits?
The government is absolutely asleep at the wheel on this.

In the meantime, as I see the other car guys unable to catch up, and unable to commit the dollars to catch up, and the strength of M3 sales and reactions, TSLA remains an obvious great long for me, regardless of the rollercoaster ride it is on now.

5-10 years from now, these will all be but little blips in the SP road as the company inevitabily grows on the strength of its insanely great products and locking in the customers ecosystem.

 

[SOULPEDL]

What if your job depended on coal? Mine doesn’t and if it did - I would get away from it.

... and what, go to school? That's not going to happen. They still didn't even in the face of Black Lung disease after their father died. It's all they know. It's a pity really, just goes back to education or the lack thereof even today. Meanwhile they think Trump will save them and their pay will rise. Now that's sad for everyone.

 

[KarenRei]

Wow. we are in complete agreement. However, we seem to veer away on your expectation that a report like this will substantially increase the SP. Considering all of the levers that got pulled in Q3, if a profit no greater than 3Q16 is the result, I see clouds ahead and a rise up but still under $300 for the SP. I think what may have really spooked the institutions was Musk's last minute email to the employees that a profit was close by as of the final days of September. I will never understand why he wrote that even if it was true.

My concern is the costs to achieve the Q3 numbers may have been greater than expected in line with the economic "law of diminishing returns". I think it also could explain a return to a level of about 4,000 Model 3's per week according to Bloomberg. Until GF 3, this might be the best GM production level for now.

I don't expect a massive price increase, and I do expect the price on average to fall over the course of the quarter, as we're used to with Tesla. Trust me, regardless of what the Q3 figures are, I have no plans to "cash out" in Q3, except to reduce my exposure shortly after the Q3 report with intent to buy back at some point during Q4

The main difference I see is emotional, not practical. On the bear side, saying "Tesla engineered a profit this quarter" doesn't have quite the zing as "Tesla incinerated 3/4ths of a billion dollars this quarter". And I think a lot of the depression of the stock price we're seeing right now is emotional. In fair part brought on by Elon himself. Emotions strongly impact story stocks. As a result of the emotional difference, I expect the stock to average higher in Q3 than Q2. But, as mentioned... there's several bombs that could be thrown at any time.

 

[tivoboy]

Agree. Most people don't want to hear this though

Sadly, this is true. Some people will just put their head in the sand and hope, but if you've been watching this movie for the past several months - its going exactly as the plot and projection has indicated.

 

[RobStark]

A lot of the lists require IIHS top pick rating

IIHS Top Safety Pick Plus requires articulating headlights.

 

[tivoboy]

except to reduce my exposure shortly after the Q3 report with intent to buy back at some point during Q4

Now you're thinking.

 

[uselesslogin]

How does that compare to historic levels? That's about $600m at current market prices.

I've been recording the number of shares available at IB every day since February of 2015. This is the first time my script has logged more that 2 million. Currently it is at 2.3 million but the fee rate has dropped some more.

 

[Intl Professor]

Use commas, this thing ",", so that people can understand what you are saying.....

I, always, think it is polite to overestimate the audience's level of intelligence. It is up-lifting.

 

[KarenRei]

Now you're thinking.

I mean, come on, how many times have we seen this exact story? Volatility, thy name is Tesla.

 

[uselesslogin]

I will say the relentless FUD has taken a huge toll.

Over the weekend I had countless encounters with people who are either:

Person A
* Knows all the negative talking points
* Knows nothing of the model 3 sales

Person B
* Knows "I just got a Tesla M3, holy shmoly is this awesome, I'll never buy a gas car again."

Funny though, in Nebraska I run into Person C a lot. "So what, does that get 100 miles or so on a charge?"

 

[Mobius484]

Are super-cheap solar fields in the Middle East just loss-leaders? — Ars Technica

Is this where Tesla will install the new battery storage facility?

 

[SpaceCash]

I, always, think it is polite to overestimate the audience's level of intelligence. It is up-lifting.

I used to think this way, but found that the idiom about "pearls before swine" is very real. It's not worth it. It only brings YOU down in the long run.

 

[Intl Professor]

I used to think this way, but found that the idiom about "pearls before swine" is very real. It's not worth it. It only brings YOU down in the long run.

Optimism is an occupational hazard of teachers.

 

[keydiver]

But... at what point are will there be "short and distort" lawsuits?
The government is absolutely asleep at the wheel on this.

Exactly! And, why is not Einhorn's CNBC statement that "Tesla will end up like Lehman Brothers after Musk's deception is revealed" libelous? This is what I see every time I Google Tesla's stock price.

 

[SOULPEDL]

With GF5 built locally, the Saudis would have no problem providing local loans to Tesla for the capital expenditures, knowing they have sole legal jurisdiction and physical control of the plant and equipment.

What do you think GF5 would make? Saudi's don't think the Battery story is settled technology wise (ie., 10 other chemistries in development world-wide). They said as much in the same feed.

No, I think it's a solar contract on the biggest scale with Tesla. That way they aren't locked into a battery technology, only capability and Tesla would own the migration to something better in the future. But face it, a GF is just a really BFF, so it could make cars and solar panels too. But I'm with you on the Saudi partnership, along with the date you mention. (I don't want to hear a peep on their civil liberties - that argument was beat to death last week, please go back for that briefing).

And we'll call this theory Oliver's Twist

 

[bdy0627]

Decent recovery in the Nasdaq is not happening with TSLA. It's seems to be anchored near the lows. Shorts aren't letting up here yet...

 

[KarenRei]

What do you think GF5 would make? Saudi's don't think the Battery story is settled technology wise (ie., 10 other chemistries in development world-wide). They said as much in the same feed.

No, I think it's a solar contract on the biggest scale with Tesla. That way they aren't locked into a battery technology, only capability and Tesla would own the migration to something better in the future. But face it, a GF is just a really BFF, so it could make cars and solar panels too. But I'm with you on the Saudi partnership, along with the date you mention. (I don't want to hear a peep on their civil liberties - that argument was beat to death last week, please go back for that briefing).

And we'll call this theory Oliver's Twist

Reminder: we don't know that the upcoming Saudi announcement has anything to do with Tesla at all.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

IIHS Top Safety Pick Plus requires articulating headlights.

Insurance Institute of Headlight Safety.

 

[Krugerrand]

LOL...Never said that. But if you read the reports from high mileage Model S owners some have had multiple motor replacements and a few have had pack replacements (all for free under the unlimited mile warranty). No one outside Tesla knows what the cost of a Model 3 motor or pack replacement will cost. I can get an ICE motor or transmission replaced with a rebuilt unit in less than a week for a couple thousand dollars at worst.

The only report I have read on the cost of a battery pack was from a guy who somehow destroyed the pack in his Roadster by leaving it unplugged for six months in storage and Tesla wanted $32,500 plus labor.

I know exactly what you said. I also know exactly what you’ve left unsaid, while purposely leading people to that thought that you’ve left unsaid.

I know all about S drive unit and battery replacements. I even know why they happened, what happened, and what Tesla has done about it. Has nothing to do with the Model 3. And even less than nothing to do with the Roadster.

Normally I’d chalk this up to a person who’s afraid of new technology and the unknown. But you’ve got an agenda and several of us are on to you. You’ll slip up eventually and fully expose yourself. Everyone does. Just a matter of time. Keep posting. It increases the odds.

 

[JRP3]

Decent recovery in the Nasdaq is not happening with TSLA. It's seems to be anchored near the lows. Shorts aren't letting up here yet...

Has to be Elon's tweets..