TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[defc0n]

What would be the most interesting ICE manufacturing stock to short?

Fiat Chrysler or Subaru perhaps?

 

[cheshire cat]

That right there is whatever anti-FUD would be. If FUD is all about making logical jumps to come to a negative conclusion about the future of the company, this is a logical jump to come to a positive conclusion.

You might well be right about your assumption. I hope you are. But it's still a logical jump. So if we as longs do this without clearly stating it's just a WAG, we become guilty of the same sin.

My point is, we cannot have the moral high ground to attack shorts for spreading FUD while we're spreading anti-FUD. Anti-FUD is not true facts. Anti-FUD is positive assumptions that are not fact-based, meant to get people excited about the stock.

Don't want to split hairs but "could be" does not amount to an assumption, generally, I try to steer a centre course but I feel you are rather "counting angels on a-pinhead " here. More tea vicar?

 

[mongo]

The Studebaker Museum is located in Mishawaka, Indiana. Is it a coincidence that SF Motors bought the shuttered Hummer-plant in that town to start production of its electric SF5 and SF7 models in 2018/2019?

'Trial' production to start in 2018 at Mishawaka car plant

What is the status of those plans? Did they perhaps fall through and will Tesla take over the plant? Just some unfounded speculation.

There are also ofcourse several shuttered car plants in southern Michigan (Lansing, 100 miles away).

More speculation, and because Mongos's hope never dies: Durnad, MI....
Project Tim

Not sure how much steel Y, Semi, and Pickup will need...

 

[jeewee3000]

Hell yeah they’re a risk, lol. If somebody is so new to options that they don’t understand that then they need to watch 1 4 minute YouTube video called Options 101 instead of buying anything.

But lower than ATH and post earnings for $100? Yes Sir, I like those odds. In the money is 10 to 1 plus. My belief is that it is higher than 10% chance the SP crosses 360 post earnings.

You play poker ever? If not...winning poker involves finding the better odds and betting it. For example, if you have a 1 in 8 chance to win a hand and the bet you have to call is $10 into a $200 pot...

Gambling is gambling, but to compare a blind 50/50 to an option purchase is in genuine.

My post was not meant as an attack, and you are correct that the roulette comparison doesn't hold up.

That said, I just wanted to provide some word of warning to those less familiar with gambling - i mean short term options - than you.

About the specific odds of your calls:
- November 2 is probably post earnings but we don't know yet. Might be the same day so that leaves little room for a gap up to $350+.
- I was as optimistic as you before the latest delivery report. I thought there was no way in h*ll the SP wouldn't shoot back to $355 (pre-privatization-tweet) after reporting deliveries in line with Tesla posting a profit for Q3. As the SP tells us, I was way off. (@Krugerrand made me some tea so I'm all better now). These last few days have however made me very pessimistic about ER. The SP will probably rise a bit but a gap up from under $300 to $350 is very unlikely to me. More time will be needed imo.

So I disagree with your belief that there is a 10% chance we will be above $360 on November 2nd. I'd go for 5% maximum.

Given the above, as a fellow poker player, I am folding the Nov 2 calls you suggested. The pot odds are not right.

If you do go for those calls, I will be the first to root for you. I'd love to see the SP back at $360 sooner than later.

 

[mekberg]

What would be the most interesting ICE manufacturing stock to short?

Ford right before Tesla truck reveal

Edit - Pulling out this quote again.

I kind of feel bad for Ford. All that debt and no ability to react to the coming EV storm. I'll paint you picture of what will scare Ford because Ford doesn't sell many cars that compete with Tesla's today. But Elon is going to reveal a pickup and he is going to have it pulling and 80,000 lbs semi up a mountain faster then diesel semi could drive itself up the same mountain. Then the driver will get out and plug in all his gear.

At that moment, all the execs a at Ford will wheep and say, why Elon hate us? Then they will strap some batteries to an f150 but by then, it will be too late.

 

[ZachF]

Fiat Chrysler or Subaru perhaps?

Third time's a charm...

But I agree... I could see the Jeep brand getting sold to Tata and the rest getting axed.

 

[Piney999]

Ford right before Tesla truck reveal

Edit - Pulling out this quote again.

So you're saying buy Ford April '19 Puts?? Maybe not a bad idea.

 

[shlokavica22]

That said, I just wanted to provide some word of warning to those less familiar with gambling - i mean short term options - than you.

These last few days have however made me very pessimistic about ER. The SP will probably rise a bit but a gap up from under $300 to $350 is very unlikely to me. More time will be needed imo.

I'm also very cautious. Mostly, because the 8-K didn't include the following:

We also reaffirm our guidance for positive GAAP
net income and cash flow in Q3 and Q4, despite negative pressures from a weaker USD and likely higher tariffs for vehicles imported
into China as well as components procured from China.

In my opinion there are two, very polarizing reasons for that:
- The didn't put it on purpose, because lower stock price is desired (for whatever reason)
- There will be a miss (especially when the expectations are raised high).

Short term bets at that time are with very high risk/reward ratio (more than usual).

 

[Cohiba]

Ford right before Tesla truck reveal

Thanks. Their stock hasn't been this low in 8 years

 

[Yggdrasill]

Republican introduces new bill to end the $7,500 federal tax credit for electric cars and tax them more instead

I hope this passes. Better for Tesla to have a level playing field, than for other car makers to have the credit while Tesla does not.

Of course, would have been even better to extend the tax credit for everyone until, say, 2025.

 

[ZachF]

Time to Consider shorting ICE manufacturers , possibly with puts.

Those with the lowest free cash flow to sales ratio and highest debt burdens.

The American manufacturers are going all in on trucks and SUVs while gas/oil prices continue to creep upwards. (again)

 

[Yggdrasill]

I'm also very cautious. Mostly, because the 8-K didn't include the following:

In my opinion there are two, very polarizing reasons for that:
- The didn't put it on purpose, because lower stock price is desired (for whatever reason)
- There will be a miss (especially when the expectations are raised high).

Short term bets at that time are with very high risk/reward ratio (more than usual).

A third possible reason is that they very rarely say anything about the financials of the past quarter. I believe they've only done it once.

I guess they could have reaffirmed guidance for Q4 without saying anything about Q3, but that would have seemed even more suspect.

 

[Boomer19]

Republican introduces new bill to end the $7,500 federal tax credit for electric cars and tax them more instead

I hope this passes. Better for Tesla to have a level playing field, than for other car makers to have the credit while Tesla does not.

Of course, would have been even better to extend the tax credit for everyone until, say, 2025.

as i posted yesterday, CT already took steps to target tesla, although i’m sure they’ll move the goal posts (the base price determines the tax incentive) once tesla starts selling cheaper version, but that’s fine, it’s only a temporary solution to fight off the inevitable.

 

[Todd Burch]

<s> AAAAAND there's the morning dip. You sure do keep us surprised, market manipulators. I totally wasn't expecting that. </s>

 

[mekberg]

So you're saying buy Ford April '19 Puts?? Maybe not a bad idea.

I know Tesla likes to do the "But wait - there's more!" during product reveals, but I feel like March is a bit optimistic for a truck prototype.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Those guys at MIT are doing an amazing job in estimating Autopilot miles.
Tesla Autopilot Miles | MIT Human-Centered AI
Very detailed and informative page.

 

[anon]

In my opinion there are two, very polarizing reasons for that:
- The didn't put it on purpose, because lower stock price is desired (for whatever reason)
- There will be a miss (especially when the expectations are raised high).

That's possible, but there are at least two other possible reasons:
- As in Musk's leaked e-mail from a couple of days earlier, they are very close, but can't be absolutely certain and so couldn't risk saying anything without more time to calculate everything in detail.
- They started adding more detail to the delivery reports when they seriously missed targets and needed to provide some face-saving additional positive information. This time they hit targets and so they can just do a basic report.

 

[KarenRei]

<s> AAAAAND there's the morning dip. You sure do keep us surprised, market manipulators. I totally wasn't expecting that. </s>

Glad I haven't given up at getting some buys in at under $250

 

[cheshire cat]

Republican introduces new bill to end the $7,500 federal tax credit for electric cars and tax them more instead

I hope this passes. Better for Tesla to have a level playing field, than for other car makers to have the credit while Tesla does not.

Of course, would have been even better to extend the tax credit for everyone until, say, 2025.

Is it this that has just hit the share price ? Or something I've missed.

 

[dondy]

Well, Elon did tweet from the Studebaker Museum in South Bend, Indiana yesterday. That's real close to a 'tri-state area' as he mused about a while back for potential Model P production, so he could be looking around for a new production site.

AM General’s South Bend is in South Bend, it is own by SF Motors (yet another electrical Chinese EV zombie). Judging by the progress and the "investments" they make the factory is for sale.