TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[stef]

I'm sure that Priscila is one of your names which is less known to me. I could bet that you are more famous with other names.

Maybe someone that popped up recently from Switzerland? (After all Glattbrugg is near Zurich).
Don’t ask me how I know

 

[Fact Checking]

Settlement With SEC Secured !

Joint Submission.pdf

source : Settlement With SEC Secured : teslamotors

I'm posting this here on this board just to make sure that everyone has seen it ... sorry if it has been already posted a few posts/pages before.

BTW., near the end of their description the SEC begrudgingly admits that Elon did not profit from his "conduct" and that any resulting price action was reversed within 24 hours or so:

SEC: "Defendants’ apparent lack of pecuniary gain, and the limited temporal scope of the conduct."​

So the SEC filed a lawsuit in record short time, over action that didn't offer any gain...

And as punishment they wanted to bar Elon freaking Musk for life from being the CEO of a public company, while over the misconduct leading up to the financial crisis of 2008 that created permanent damage in the trillions and profited perpetrators to the hundreds of billions the SEC did exactly nothing.

The mind boggles ...

Also note that the lack of gain also robbed the SEC of most of their statutory backing for enforcement action. Regulation SEC Rule 10b-5 specifically states:

"in connection with the purchase or sale of any security."​

Which Elon didn't do: he neither bought nor sold securities in that time period. The expansive reading of the SEC of the Securities Act, which contradicts the legislative record, to mean they can regulate and sue anyone who is doing something that has an effect on the stock market in any fashion the SEC disapproves of is very likely unlawful and would have been curtailed by judges by Elon's lawsuit.

But only after years of collateral damage to Tesla shareholders due to protracted litigation ...

 

[cheshire cat]

I do not consider theses losses to have any educational purpose or help. I would do the same thing again in the future .

It shouldn't NEED to be pointed out to you that the above statement speaks volumes for your "train of thought". You may not like your current position but it is FACT, and if you have not learned anything from this then I suggest these "games " are not for you, nextime put it on a horse. I would also recommend a short course in English comprehension, whilst you English is undoubtably better than my "Glattbrugg" it would help if you understood the meaning of "considering".

 

[Fact Checking]

SEC: "Defendants’ apparent lack of pecuniary gain, and the limited temporal scope of the conduct."

BTW., after this tacit admission by the SEC that Elon and Tesla didn't even profit, I'm curious whether the judge will use this opening to question whether the SEC even has jurisdiction due to lack of sales or purchase of securities by Elon, and whether the punishment fits the "crime"...

Also, this should probably put to rest speculation about any DOJ action.

 

[Ulmo]

BTW., near the end of their description the SEC begrudgingly admits that Elon did not profit from his "conduct" and that any resulting price action was reversed within 24 hours or so:

SEC: "Defendants’ apparent lack of pecuniary gain, and the limited temporal scope of the conduct."​

So the SEC filed a lawsuit in record short time, over action that didn't offer any gain...

And as punishment they wanted to bar Elon freaking Musk for life from being the CEO of a public company, while over the misconduct leading up to the financial crisis of 2008 that created permanent damage in the trillions and profited perpetrators to the hundreds of billions the SEC did exactly nothing.

The mind boggles ...

Also note that the lack of gain also robbed the SEC of most of their statutory backing for enforcement action. Regulation SEC Rule 10b-5 specifically states:

"in connection with the purchase or sale of any security."​

Which Elon didn't do: he neither bought nor sold securities in that time period. The expansive reading of the SEC of the Securities Act, which contradicts the legislative record, to mean they can regulate and sue anyone who is doing something that has an effect on the stock market in any fashion the SEC disapproves of is very likely unlawful and would have been curtailed by judges by Elon's lawsuit.

But only after years of collateral damage to Tesla shareholders due to protracted litigation ...

Those are very important points to smother the SEC's belligerence. Thank you.

 

[mrdoubleb]

I just finished reading @Papafox's article at A Field Guide To Potential Securities Violations By Tesla's Foes — In Depth | CleanTechnica. Great article.

I've seen literally tens of thousands of manipulations. I rarely document them. I often watch the tape, and sometimes I comment on them. Here's one of my recent comments made exactly after such a manipulation:

TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

What is the exact timestamp of that message? One of the many horrible things TMC did was remove timestamps, but timestamps deliver vital information.

Anyway, I didn't document that ladder down. Am I supposed to? It's still in the tape. SEC could easily look it up and prosecute. But I haven't heard of them doing so.

Update: I've been investigating when that above post was made. Here are some screenshots that parameterize the timeline to be before 3:54AM Pacific Time:
View attachment 342722 View attachment 342723

Update: I sent a query to NASDAQ for that information, but I don't know if they will respond or the best way to get a copy of that information. Does anybody know how to get Times and Sales information from NASDAQ or anywhere for research for a past event 8 days ago? Does anybody have a recording of the information (Times and Sales on TSLA, including time, exchange, price, size, ask, and bid)? October 3, 2018, between 4AM EDT and 6:54AM EDT.

This cannot be repeated enough times @Papafox wrote a super well researched amazing article! Thank you, sir!

 

[gora321]

German automakers' opposition to CO2 goal may hit them later

I would change may to will.

ICE Paradox or no good solution is discussed.
They know they are screwed.

If some ICE producer announce that next 5-10 years will have red figures (cash burning) due to rapid transformation than I would say that they have some chances to stay alive.

German industry says new CO2 target threatens jobs

 

[avoigt]

Settlement With SEC Secured !

Joint Submission.pdf

source : Settlement With SEC Secured : teslamotors

I'm posting this here on this board just to make sure that everyone has seen it ... sorry if it has been already posted a few posts/pages before.

#1 Uncertainty replaced by certainty and thats very good for all long investors

#2 The SEC looks really bad after that agreement and has caused strong damage to their reputation & protector of investors

#3 Its been a smart, meaningful and logic decision of Elon to agree and a prove of his intention to protect investors

#4 All claims he is erratic, ego driven and whatever else has been countered effectively now

#5 Elon and Tesla can be truly called now to be more protective to small investors than the SEC

#6 the one sentence reply is epic and should make it in the books of history

 

[Fact Checking]

TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

What is the exact timestamp of that message? One of the many horrible things TMC did was remove timestamps, but timestamps deliver vital information

On a desktop if you hover over the date with the mouse then the timestamp is displayed (in local time): "2:08pm Oct 3, 2018, GMT+2" for your message.

 

[Navin]

This is a big relief for shareholders. Upward/onward. When market rebounds - should take tesla with it. Should see a nice reversal today. Trade em well.

 

[Ulmo]

I just finished reading @Papafox's article at A Field Guide To Potential Securities Violations By Tesla's Foes — In Depth | CleanTechnica. Great article.

I've seen literally tens of thousands of manipulations. I rarely document them. I often watch the tape, and sometimes I comment on them. Here's one of my recent comments made exactly after such a manipulation:

TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

What is the exact timestamp of that message? One of the many horrible things TMC did was remove timestamps, but timestamps deliver vital information.

Anyway, I didn't document that ladder down. Am I supposed to? It's still in the tape. SEC could easily look it up and prosecute. But I haven't heard of them doing so.

Update: I've been investigating when that above post was made. Here are some screenshots that parameterize the timeline to be before 3:54AM Pacific Time:
View attachment 342722 View attachment 342723

Update: I sent a query to NASDAQ for that information, but I don't know if they will respond or the best way to get a copy of that information. Does anybody know how to get Times and Sales information from NASDAQ or anywhere for research for a past event 8 days ago? Does anybody have a recording of the information (Times and Sales on TSLA, including time, exchange, price, size, ask, and bid)? October 3, 2018, between 4AM EDT and 6:54AM EDT.

Update: that message was posted at 5:08AM PDT, or 8:08AM EDT, October 3, 2018. I have to make a new query to NASDAQ, since I had the wrong time! Idiot! (My brain doesn't always function properly, and in this cold is no exception.)

Edit: Apparently, one of my platforms allows per-minute detail back in time. I wonder if there's a Time and Sales search field, because it is THAT which will show the manipulation; I think it may have been between the red bars at 5:03AM and 5:04AM PDT (8:03AM and 8:04AM EDT). The chart goes from 5:01AM PDT to 5:09AM PDT.

 

[ebyard]

If Tesla executes well, then Subaru is as good as dead, IMHO.

Funnily enough I was behind a Scooby-Doo (UK speak for Subaru) yesterday and I thought, now there's a car maker you hear little of, and who will probably really struggle with the EV transition. They only have 2 factories (Japan and the US) and churn out 1m cars a year.

 

[Fact Checking]

I am really upset with Elon - any recommendations for me? I just want to get out without a loss - that's all.

Yeah, so if you want to concern troll and play the fake victim here you should really attempt to keep your story internally consistent. Just a few weeks ago you wrote this gem of a comment:

How many times has Elon lied about getting profitable? How many times has he failed? And what about the lawsuits currently forming and Tesla is required to build allowances for these lawsuits? They are built over the P&L hence influencing Q3 results significantly (US GAAP). And what about the latest SeekingAlpha Article stating that Q3 results might even be worse then the net loss of 2XX millions? They are saying it might be 350 millions (net loss) for Q3. They do also have these numbers from somewhere?...

And what about the Bloomberg tracker now showing only 4000 vehicles produced in the following 3 weeks? What is going on? I do not believe anything anymore that Elon Musk is telling to the public.

One thing is for sure: If he does not proof to be both profitable (significantly) in both Q3 and Q4 (after cutting jobs and ramping up production) - the shorts will short that thing down to 150 - 200$.

While concern trolls usually try to add a few overly generic claims that are impossible to falsify, none of your specific concern trolling here materialized:

• the SEC lawsuit got settled,
• Q3 production and deliveries were at record levels,
• mainstream Wall Street analysts think that Q3 and on-wards Tesla is not just free cash flow positive, but sustainably profitable,
• T Rowe Price's hedge fund has increased their Tesla stake to 10.2%, buying 10 million more shares of TSLA,
  
• and Seeking Alpha is still the circle-jerk echo chamber built for Tesla shorts by Tesla shorts, entertaining to follow as a weird window into some other universe with different rules for physics and economics, but admittedly with a very low (in fact negative) signal/noise ratio.

While it's moderately amusing to see you refer to yourself in the third person "the shorts", I'd suggest you to create a new alt account and try again building a fake "concerned Tesla investor" persona - this time with fewer mistakes.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Am I the only one who is having a hard time feeling sorry for people who bought Tesla stock for the first time after the taking private tweet? They did not invest because they believe in Tesla, otherwise they would already be invested. They invested because an easy profit looked assured. They blame Elon, but wasn’t greed the biggest factor?

 

[bhtooefr]

Funnily enough I was behind a Scooby-Doo (UK speak for Subaru) yesterday and I thought, now there's a car maker you hear little of, and who will probably really struggle with the EV transition. They only have 2 factories (Japan and the US) and churn out 1m cars a year.

They're now under the Toyota umbrella, which could help them a lot... but Toyota is moving too slowly themselves (although in some areas I think Toyota may be one of the better-positioned legacy automakers, if they correct course fast enough). And, a lot of Subaru's unique selling points would be lost by just rebadging a Toyota BEV platform.

So far, though, they're behind even on hybridization - they've only done weaksauce post-transmission parallel systems, although they're allegedly planning a PHEV based on Prius Prime technology, whatever that means.

 

[gora321]

Gravitational waves continue...

German coalition parties dispute diesel fines for automakers

 

[ThereAre4Cars]

So which will Tesla release first? Sr with pup or lr without pup?

 

[Dan Detweiler]

So which will Tesla release first? Sr with pup or lr without pup?

SR with no PUP. If people want the $35K car and all the naysayers say it will never get released...give it to them.

Dan

 

[SO16]

I am stuck with my initial investment of 150 shares @ 350$ per share due to believe of Elon taking his company private and the incredible Q2 and Q3 results.

However, due to certain circumstances (Elon's tweeting), the share price is now barely above 250$ and I am suffering a 100$ loss on my investment per share.

I am really upset with Elon - any recommendations for me? I just want to get out without a loss - that's all. I do not care about Elon anymore after all he's done to himself, his company and all his shareholders (aka fans). This is incredible.

So you are mad at Elon but ultimately it’s because you were greedy. No one forced you to buy shares based on a tweet stating “thinking of ....”.

And now you want to sell your shares right now and don’t want any cost to you? Ok. If you figure out a way to do this, let the world know! You’d be famous!

 

[Fact Checking]

So which will Tesla release first? Sr with pup or lr without pup?

SR with no PUP. If people want the $35K car and all the naysayers say it will never get released...give it to them.

Dan

They'd be throwing money out the window, which they should not be doing right now. They should ignore the whines of the shorts who want to pressure Tesla into selling lower margin products while they still have not scaled up production.

The best profit maximizing option right now is for Tesla to carefully walk down the 'ladder of demand' step by step, decrease the current entry price from $49k to $44k by offering SR+PUP+AWD as the first SR batches made. Then observe consumer demand and adjust pricing and bundling accordingly.

This step alone would offset the reduction of the tax credit until the end of 2019. Later in 2019 they can then offer SR+PUP versions to reduce the entry price to $39k.

Even at a $44k entry price the effective price to the customer could already be close to $35k, with state and (a reduced) federal incentives.

Note that offering these lower cost SR variants might also, somewhat counter-intuitively, increase margins: it will allow people to purchase SR instead of LR and use the $9,000 savings to buy Enhanced AutoPilot, AWD or FSD options - which all have higher margins than the Long Range option.

This would be even more likely if Tesla releases Hardware 3, the Tesla AI chip and FSD features together with the SR option.

I'd also not be surprised if the price of the Long Range option was increased from $9k to $10k, depending on whether the Gigafactory of Fremont assembly is the main constraint on throughput.