TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Esme Es Mejor]

No, it is always coordinated malicious attack by short sellers. /s

Well, I do think shorts are malicious and harmful. Especially the trolls who show up on Twitter whenever someone posts happily about their Tesla experience.

But most market action isn’t due to shorts— it’s macros and news and sector cycling and window dressing and all sorts of other nonsense. That said, there are a few phenomena that don’t seem to have any explanation other than shorts being shorts...

 

[lklundin]

Yes: Panasonic is adding 3 new lines to the existing 10, but those new lines are much faster apparently, so cell output will increase from the current 20 GWh/year to 35 GWh/year.

This is where the three new "Grohmann machines" come in: 3x faster and 3x cheaper than the current battery module assembly lines.

35 GWh/year should be enough for 10k/week Model 3 plus plenty of Energy/Storage output.

All this combined could max out Frrmont, plus push pack level costs to around $100/kWh.

Exciting news.

What effect do these Grohmann machines have on Tesla's CapEx?

Are they paid for in part (or in total) by Panasonic?
Will any part paid for by Tesla appear as CapEx for Q3?

How much can such a substantial addition to the production capacity cost?

 

[Robertj]

Exciting news.

What effect do these Grohmann machines have on Tesla's CapEx?

Are they paid for in part (or in total) by Panasonic?
Will any part paid for by Tesla appear as CapEx for Q3?

How much can such a substantial addition to the production capacity cost?

Purchases of capex for Tesla
Revenue for Grohmann, 100 % owned subsidiary of Tesla

Huuuge profits for Tesla !

 

[avoigt]

There is a large business within Tesla that seems to got completely forgotten from the media and even here. Its nullified and does not appear any more anywhere like it vanished and stops to operate.

We should talk more about the huge opportunity with battery's for Grid stabilization a no brainer for the utility industry and its huge value and opportunity as well as success. Tesla's unique position in the market and the future revenue and margin.

I get the impression its valued a $0 as of right now and we should not accept this to happen. They tried to did that with the Auto business and we pushed back but why is there no similar effort with TE?

The narrative of $0 value has been established effectively from the shorts, bears and the media. A successful spin of reality into fiction. Elon said quite often that the TE business will be as large as the Auto business and grow even faster but I just do not hear about it. Is that because we cannot drive a Battery and appreciate the interior and AP in it?

So far, despite mostly late on promises Elon did execute on all. Some are pending and in the works e.g. Short Squeeze. TE is not a not fulfilled promise it does execute every single day save lives, costs and reduces carbon.

There is absolutely not a single reason to believe that the growth of TE it will not happen. If that is true why is it that I do not see anywhere the Battery business mentioned and no financial analysis that includes it?

There is an undeniable low amount of news and media coverage about TE but that does not explain why its often not even mentioned as a value generator.

I ask all true supporters of Tesla's mission here and elsewhere to take a minute and review what we did and do about TE. We all may have been influenced in our recognition of TE by shorts, bears and FUD and should reconsider and start to talk about it and appreciate it.

That business alone is a disruption that is unseen.

Tesla Could Revolutionize Electric Grid Operations

 

[RobStark]

I really like the fact that Musk mostly stays out of politics. I hope it stays that way. The only #maga I’ll agree with is CO2 concentrations before 1850

 

[cheshire cat]

There is a large business within Tesla that seems to got completely forgotten from the media and even here. Its nullified and does not appear any more anywhere like it vanished and stops to operate.

We should talk more about the huge opportunity with battery's for Grid stabilization a no brainer for the utility industry and its huge value and opportunity as well as success. Tesla's unique position in the market and the future revenue and margin.

I get the impression its valued a $0 as of right now and we should not accept this to happen. They tried to did that with the Auto business and we pushed back but why is there no similar effort with TE?

The narrative of $0 value has been established effectively from the shorts, bears and the media. A successful spin of reality into fiction. Elon said quite often that the TE business will be as large as the Auto business and grow faster.

So far, despite mostly late on promises Elon did execute on all. Some are pending and in the works e.g. Short Squeeze.

There is absolutely not a single reason to believe that the growth of TE it will not happen. If that is true why is it that I do not see anywhere the Battery business mentioned and no financial analysis that includes it?

Tesla Could Revolutionize Electric Grid Operations

Yes been hinting and asking questions about the economics of "stuffing batteries in boxes". For some time but with little response. I think it's the lucky elephant in the room

 

[ThereAre4Cars]

I think it's relatively appropriate to keep Tesla Energy on the backshelf of analysis for now. At 1GWh for power packs it's ~250M$ revenue at most, and so even doubling every year it would take awhile to get to material proportions of the business since auto is now at 25B$+ and still growing rapidly.

 

[cheshire cat]

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The good, the bad, and the ugly, The creepy the blond and the war hero (respect). P.s. Approx $ 258 in the fatherland at the mo'

 

[avoigt]

I think it's relatively appropriate to keep Tesla Energy on the backshelf of analysis for now. At 1GWh for power packs it's ~250M$ revenue at most, and so even doubling every year it would take awhile to get to material proportions of the business since auto is now at 25B$+ and still growing rapidly.

Elon said it to triple every year and to achieve the same size in revenue as the Auto business.

There is not a single reason for me to put it on a backshelf as every $ revenue and margin counts and why do you think it makes sense to put there at all? Because its still smaller than the Auto business?

Why is that even an argument?

 

[avoigt]

Teslandia

Alex on Twitter

Tesla is looking to build on-site housing for Gigafactory 1 employees, says Elon Musk

Some of you may have heard about Fordlandia a city build in the 1920s. A vision from Henry Ford to build a Caoutchouc supplying city in the rain forest of Amazonia to supply enough for the production in the US. Its been the true vertical integration approach Tesla does implement today with lithium production efforts in Nevada and a city for workers to live in to work in GF1.

 

[avoigt]

Its happening:




vincent‏ @vincent13031925
From the official recruitment advertisement of Tesla, the Shanghai Gigafactory has entered the stage of preparation for construction. Thanks @congcongcui1 for the info $TSLA #TeslaChina

6:47 PM - 11 Oct 2018

 

[dondy]

Exciting news.

What effect do these Grohmann machines have on Tesla's CapEx?

Are they paid for in part (or in total) by Panasonic?
Will any part paid for by Tesla appear as CapEx for Q3?

How much can such a substantial addition to the production capacity cost?

Grohmann produces robots for battery module, pack assembly. (They used to do the same for Daimler) .
Grohmann is part of Tesla and they can count these lines in they way they find it fit.
The new lines are for the design of Model 3 packs, according to Musk these new lines will make modules much cheaper than current ones.

Panasonic lines are for cells and are designed by somebody else. Probably just another "Matsushita" division.

 

[ThereAre4Cars]

Elon said it to triple every year and to achieve the same size in revenue as the Auto business.

There is not a single reason for me to put it on a backshelf as every $ revenue and margin counts and why do you think it makes sense to put there at all? Because its still smaller than the Auto business?

Why is that even an argument?

Because when one variable dominates another by this amount, noise in your estimation of the first variable overwhelms any precision added by the second. Feel free to treat it differently but I'd recommend being pretty conservative with your 'Elon says' forecasts for this particular line item.

 

[avoigt]

Because when one variable dominates another by this amount, noise in your estimation of the first variable overwhelms any precision added by the second. Feel free to treat it differently but I'd recommend being pretty conservative with your 'Elon says' forecasts for this particular line item.

Well, there is revenue today and the business is neither a fiction nor a vision of the future.

To your second point about the noise. I agree but that is not an argument not to include it in thoughts, calculations and financial predictions.

To be conservative is good but to nullify an existing business and revenue with higher growth than the Tesla Auto business is (not an attack) just incorrect and dump.

Think about it Ark Invest did calculate the AP business alone with a SP target of $ 4,000 but they excluded the Auto revenue as well as the TE.

Its like we all have been bought into the shorts argument that all the revenue they will do with other than just producing cars will not exists and go bankrupt.

 

[dqd88]

I think it's something to do with #FrunkPuppies - which is a thing on Twitter, you know...

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When I first saw "PUP" that's actually what I pictured

 

[lklundin]

Elon said it to triple every year and to achieve the same size in revenue as the Auto business.

There is not a single reason for me to put it on a backshelf as every $ revenue and margin counts and why do you think it makes sense to put there at all? Because its still smaller than the Auto business?

Why is that even an argument?

Is it possible that Tesla so far has been production constrained on batteries and has given priority to batteries in the highest margin products, i.e. Model 3?

Just out of curiosity I put a deposit down for the Powerwall and have not even gotten an estimated delivery date.

I have a feeling that they need to produce _a lot_ more batteries before any but the highest profile energy projects get some attention.

 

[Heimdallr]

I think it's relatively appropriate to keep Tesla Energy on the backshelf of analysis for now. At 1GWh for power packs it's ~250M$ revenue at most, and so even doubling every year it would take awhile to get to material proportions of the business since auto is now at 25B$+ and still growing rapidly.

I think it was relatively appropriate in the past but now it's about time Tesla Energy gets included in any analysis, given the higher than $1 billion in revenue per year run rate and growing 2x or even 3x. After all, we have to include the energy business when talking about CapEx or OpEx so why won't we model the revenue from it? I think it's prudent to remain conservative though. If relying on statements from JB Straubel and Elon Musk, it makes sense to use the most conservative estimate they have given until we get more data.

 

[RoadsterPlease]

If anyone has some dry powder left I think today is maybe the last chance to get a nice entry below 265$ for a LONG time.
Can we trigger a nice little short squeeze today? That would make this terrible week of investing a little bit better.

 

[jeewee3000]

AH was QUITE strong today. I say this every other day but I have great feelings about imminent SP blast off

TT007, is that you?

Well, I do think shorts are malicious and harmful. Especially the trolls who show up on Twitter whenever someone posts happily about their Tesla experience.

But most market action isn’t due to shorts— it’s macros and news and sector cycling and window dressing and all sorts of other nonsense. That said, there are a few phenomena that don’t seem to have any explanation other than shorts being shorts...

While I agree that shorts are not responsible for most market action (tech up or down, or any Tesla drop), you have to give them a little more credit IMO. Just look at the two recent events in which the short-selling-triggers were hit. Two times two days of smooth stock price fluctuations, compared to the choppy drastic ups and downs on most "regular" days.

 

[Heimdallr]

Because when one variable dominates another by this amount, noise in your estimation of the first variable overwhelms any precision added by the second. Feel free to treat it differently but I'd recommend being pretty conservative with your 'Elon says' forecasts for this particular line item.

I see where you are coming from. Looking at the numbers, you do have a point but I still wouldn't go as far and not including it in my analysis. I'm not excluding revenue from service because of its relative small size either. I will include everything I know, and where there is a lot of uncertainty, it's probably prudent to use the most conservative estimates available. It's not correct to just use the 2x or 3x multiples I mentioned above because that's only the energy storage part as far as I remember. We don't know much about solar roof other than it was probably announced way too early and is now finally starting to ship in meaningful quantities in the last quarter this year and over 2019.