TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[bhtooefr]

Dunno - while a company selling lubricants is not a particularly authoritative source:

Combat the Effects of Cold Temperatures

"Automatic transmissions can shift harder in the cold, but changes in transmission performance brought on by cold temperatures are usually more pronounced for drivers who operate manual transmissions. As transmission fluid thickens in the cold, the synchronizers in manual transmissions cannot spin as quickly as they need to, which can severely impact the driver’s ability to shift until the fluid is warmed enough to provide proper flow – and protection."​

Plus a Tesla gearbox is much simpler than an automatic transmission.

Also, @Artful Dodger pointed out that the Tesla gearbox can be heated, so I guess my argument is moot from that angle as well.

Transmission shifting performance, and transmission lubrication, are two different issues. Obviously the former is irrelevant to a Tesla.

That said, AFAIK, the bigger penalty would be efficiency, rather than wear, on cold lubricants. There'd be some initial wear from startup, but eventually lubricants will flow well enough to get where they need to be. (Not an expert, though.)

Automatic transmission hard shifting would be because automatic transmissions use the fluid to actually shift the elements within the transmission, so things respond slower than the designers intended, causing the shift to be delayed and not as smooth as it should be.

 

[RobStark]

Random question - why doesn't Tesla create it's own dealerships and roll them up under a wholly owned subsidiary? They could use these in the states are have very restrictive laws requiring dealers (unless the laws stipulate that the car company can't own the dealer), rather than fighting it out w/ all these states. Tesla is sticking to their guns, fighting for their ideals, but I don't see the downside to "bending" on this particular battle.

There are no loopholes in States that ban Tesla from doing business.

Tesla/OEMs can't own dealerships, Tesla/OEMs can't own a holding company that owns a dealership, Tesla/OEM executives can't own dealerships nor family members of Tesla/OEM executives can own dealerships.

My favorite run around was to negotiate with Indian Reservations to put Tesla stores on tribal land in States that prohibit Tesla Stores or Service Centers.

One Indian reservation(in Georgia I think) had a dealership just inside reservation land not paying sales tax. Georgia sued and they eventually reached a settlement before Federal judges ruled on the matter.

 

[TradingInvest]

I would love Porsche to IPO for 81bln Porsche IPO Could Value Carmaker as High as $81 Billion, CFO Says. It would definitely help with TSLA valuation.

I hope Tesla shorts also go long on Porsche so they get double whipped down the road. Somehow they think Porsche can do well in the EV space. This is like thinking Nokia can design a smart phone and compete with Apple's iPhone.

What's happening is that legacy car makers have to switch to EV, or they die. If they do switch to EV, life is not going to be easy for them.

 

[Bet TSLA]

'm greatly disappointed in the ride, however,

Elon has said that if you want a smoother ride then inflate the tires a few PSI lower. I suggest you experiment.

Market action relevance? I think many of us would prefer a smoother ride.

 

[CaliBear1]

I also wrote a scathing comment about political corruption and greed at the expense of the future of the planet and our children.

I made a comment to support Tesla on the site. Please spread awareness. Do your part if you care.

Why you can't buy a Tesla in these states

 

[XHabjab]

The Model 3 has also been simplified with service costs in mind: no Falcon Wing Doors, no complex self-presenting door handles, no sunroof, using easier to cool PM motors, using a re-designed battery pack, etc. etc - and the cherry on top is a very clever minimalist interior design that also happens to reduce manufacturing and servicing costs and increases vehicle life time. Car interiors tend to age the fastest.

I believe in a few decades the Model 3 will be taught in business school as an example of modern manufacturing breakthroughs.

(Old link, but quoted recently here)

I'm an engineer. One of the things that is really embarrassing to me professionally is that most (mainly ICE) cars are not designed to be more reliable; they are designed to fall apart on a schedule that largely resembles the warranty. Reliability is something that the customer wants. Scheduled breakdown is something the auto company wants, so that you will sell the old vehicle and buy a new one. This is a major part of the design of a car. A significant part of vehicle testing when a new model is produced is that it is breaking down properly when miles are put on it. Different breakdown features occur over time; others based on miles driven. Breakdown rate also depends on the type of vehicle. Ten years ago, a car was considered "old" when it had about 100,000 miles on it, whereas a semi truck was not considered "broken in" until it had about 200,000 miles on it. The breakdown rate is less than that now but it still exists. Drive train and safety related items are designed to significantly outlast the warranty, but polish and non-safety items break down much faster ... upholstery, paint, electronics, ...

Modern manufacturing breakthroughs won't make this problem go away. Breakthroughs might make the problem worse. I don't believe that this will show up as an item in biz school.

Oh yeah, except Tesla.

 

[dqd88]

There are no loopholes in States that ban Tesla from doing business.

Tesla/OEMs can't own dealerships, Tesla/OEMs can't own a holding company that owns a dealership, Tesla/OEM executives can't own dealerships nor family members of Tesla/OEM executives can own dealerships.

My favorite run around was to negotiate with Indian Reservations to put Tesla stores on tribal land in States that prohibit Tesla Stores or Service Centers.

One Indian reservation(in Georgia I think) had a dealership just inside reservation land not paying sales tax. Georgia sued and they eventually reached a settlement before Federal judges ruled on the matter.

But... does it have to be all or nothing? Tesla now is fighting states to have dealer franchise laws overturned. Why not come to a compromise where Tesla forms a joint venture with a local dealer, and that dealer can only sell electric cars (to eliminate the concern around the salesperson nudging buyers towards ICE). I think a softer stance, not a hard line one, will be more likely to move the needle. And having all of these battles only puts a bigger target on Tesla's back, which I think can can/does create real harm/an existential threat.

 

[sundaymorning]

More positive news from a former bullish analyst, Adam Jonas.

Tesla Skeptic Surprised by How Much He Enjoyed the Model 3

 

[Curt Renz]

But... does it have to be all or nothing? Tesla now is fighting states to have dealer franchise laws overturned. Why not come to a compromise where Tesla forms a joint venture with a local dealer, and that dealer can only sell electric cars (to eliminate the concern around the salesperson nudging buyers towards ICE). I think a softer stance, not a hard line one, will be more likely to move the needle. And having all of these battles only puts a bigger target on Tesla's back, which I think can can/does create real harm/an existential threat.

There is no advantage in Tesla selling its cars to franchised dealerships, who then mark up the price substantially to make up for the minimal need to service electric cars. It's either a big markup above the direct to consumer price, or Tesla having to sell to dealers at a steep discount to the detriment of profit.

Currently Tesla cannot make enough cars to meet demand, especially if all states allowed them to open company stores. They can wait it out until legislators bow to consumer pressure, or the federal courts rule that blocking Tesla is contrary to the US Constitution's interstate commerce clause. We're awaiting a ruling by a federal court in Michigan.

 

[mltv]

I hope Tesla shorts also go long on Porsche so they get double whipped down the road. Some how they think Porsche can do well in the EV space. This is like thinking Nokia can design a smart phone and compete with Apple's iPhone.

What's happening is that legacy car makers have to switch to EV, or they die. If they do switch to EV, life is not going to be easy for them.

There is a significant difference between an early Smart Phone and a iPhone. There is a significant difference between a EV and a Tesla. There is a whole ecosystem comes with the later.

 

[abasile]

Tesla has already had to compromise enough, by limiting the number of stores in some states, setting up galleries in others, etc.

In China, Tesla was able to secure the right to fully own Gigafactory 3, without being forced into a joint venture.

In the US of all places, Tesla should be able to sell its cars as it sees fit. I'm all for maintaining a hardline stance on this. Eventually, with increasing numbers of Tesla vehicles on the road, public pressure and court action will lead to changes in state laws in Tesla's favor. This will be free advertising.

But... does it have to be all or nothing? Tesla now is fighting states to have dealer franchise laws overturned. Why not come to a compromise where Tesla forms a joint venture with a local dealer, and that dealer can only sell electric cars (to eliminate the concern around the salesperson nudging buyers towards ICE). I think a softer stance, not a hard line one, will be more likely to move the needle. And having all of these battles only puts a bigger target on Tesla's back, which I think can can/does create real harm/an existential threat.

 

[Curt Renz]

Tesla has already had to compromise enough, by limiting the number of stores in some states, setting up galleries in others, etc.

In China, Tesla was able to secure the right to fully own Gigafactory 3, without being forced into a joint venture.

In the US of all places, Tesla should be able to sell its cars as it sees fit. I'm all for maintaining a hardline stance on this. Eventually, with increasing numbers of Tesla vehicles on the road, public pressure and court action will lead to changes in state laws in Tesla's favor. This will be free advertising.

Forbes - 2013: Strangling Innovation: Tesla vs. 'Rent Seekers'

 

[ThereAre4Cars]

Would they be exempt from dealership laws if Elizabeth Warren was chairman? (I know it's a long shot) *crosses fingers and ducks*

 

[mltv]

Tesla has already had to compromise enough, by limiting the number of stores in some states, setting up galleries in others, etc.

In China, Tesla was able to secure the right to fully own Gigafactory 3, without being forced into a joint venture.

In the US of all places, Tesla should be able to sell its cars as it sees fit. I'm all for maintaining a hardline stance on this. Eventually, with increasing numbers of Tesla vehicles on the road, public pressure and court action will lead to changes in state laws in Tesla's favor. This will be free advertising.

Wonder when Tesla sales revenues get to a point that it is foolish to turn down potential sale tax revenue for the states.

 

[RobStark]

But... does it have to be all or nothing? Tesla now is fighting states to have dealer franchise laws overturned. Why not come to a compromise where Tesla forms a joint venture with a local dealer, and that dealer can only sell electric cars (to eliminate the concern around the salesperson nudging buyers towards ICE). I think a softer stance, not a hard line one, will be more likely to move the needle. And having all of these battles only puts a bigger target on Tesla's back, which I think can can/does create real harm/an existential threat.

1) Many States (Missouri and Indiana comes to mind) that carved out exceptions for Tesla say if Tesla has franchised dealers anywhere in the world all the locations inside their states must become franchised dealers. So in many cases it is legislators making it all or nothing. If Tesla caves in Michigan how long before California New Auto Dealers Association start lobbying Sacramento to force Tesla to do only franchised sales in California? Tesla assertion that selling EVs is so unique it must do so itself is then proven false.

2) Tesla can certainly pick new dealers with zero dealer experience. It can grant franchise dealers to hardcore environmentalist and EV advocates only. In 2013 I suggest approaching George Clooney for Tesla rights to Kentucky. Elon has said that if absolutely forced to do franchised dealers he would not partner with people fighting him for decades. But in this case Tesla loses control of the customer experience and profits. Tesla dealers would have to make service a profit center or charge more for the cars.

Many old time TMCers beat this horse to death 5-6 years ago.

 

[abasile]

Forbes - 2013: Strangling Innovation: Tesla vs. 'Rent Seekers'

I think I recall having read that piece back in 2013! Still just as applicable today.

 

[Intl Professor]

Dunno - while a company selling lubricants is not a particularly authoritative source:

Combat the Effects of Cold Temperatures

"Automatic transmissions can shift harder in the cold, but changes in transmission performance brought on by cold temperatures are usually more pronounced for drivers who operate manual transmissions. As transmission fluid thickens in the cold, the synchronizers in manual transmissions cannot spin as quickly as they need to, which can severely impact the driver’s ability to shift until the fluid is warmed enough to provide proper flow – and protection."​

Plus a Tesla gearbox is much simpler than an automatic transmission.

Also, @Artful Dodger pointed out that the Tesla gearbox can be heated, so I guess my argument is moot from that angle as well.

In the winter as a preteen when we lived in Minneapolis my dad would let me go to his Olds 98 and run the engine until the transmission had churned the like-lard fluid enough to make it liquid. At first the starter would strain until a slice had been made in the semi-solid fluid. I think it had a simple fluid coupling then at some point in hydramatic. Sorry, I suffer from nostalgia.

 

[MartinAustin]

Tesla has already had to compromise enough, by limiting the number of stores in some states, setting up galleries in others, etc.

In China, Tesla was able to secure the right to fully own Gigafactory 3, without being forced into a joint venture.

In the US of all places, Tesla should be able to sell its cars as it sees fit. I'm all for maintaining a hardline stance on this. Eventually, with increasing numbers of Tesla vehicles on the road, public pressure and court action will lead to changes in state laws in Tesla's favor. This will be free advertising.

Answered here:
General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

This is the TSLA stock movements thread. Let's keep discussions about dealerships (which return about as regularly as the tides) over on the general investor's thread please.

 

[dqd88]

Tesla has already had to compromise enough, by limiting the number of stores in some states, setting up galleries in others, etc.

In China, Tesla was able to secure the right to fully own Gigafactory 3, without being forced into a joint venture.

In the US of all places, Tesla should be able to sell its cars as it sees fit. I'm all for maintaining a hardline stance on this. Eventually, with increasing numbers of Tesla vehicles on the road, public pressure and court action will lead to changes in state laws in Tesla's favor. This will be free advertising.

I agree that Tesla "should" be able to sell its cars as it sees fit. But under the context of "pick your battles", I hope this is truly a battle worth fighting to the end if in fact that's the plan.

 

[Thekiwi]

News of the judge approving the joint statement should at this point be $280+. Definitely expect buyers leading up to Q3 financials.

Meh - I think everyone assumes it is a done deal and I don’t think confirmation from judge will be market moving.