TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[erha]

If earnings are good this could become very interesting. Earnings calls may be going out already because of yesterdays trading. If we get a large price rise today, positive earnings after-market and positive trading tomorrow we might actually see a short-squeeze.

If this doesn't lead to a short squeeze, I don't think anything will. Hoping for the best!

 

[Unpilot]

P100D. It is so choice. If you have the means, I highly recommend picking one up.

All time favorite "regular car review "

 

[HG Wells]

If not a short squeeze then perhaps a severe hug.

Margin calls anyone ?

 

[Fact Checking]

 

[jeewee3000]

If earnings are good this could become very interesting. Earnings calls may be going out already because of yesterdays trading. If we get a large price rise today, positive earnings after-market and positive trading tomorrow we might actually see a short-squeeze.

If this doesn't lead to a short squeeze, I don't think anything will. Hoping for the best!

As I posted many times before, a true short squeeze (not enough shares put up for sale for every short to cover) is extremely unlikely since too much longs will try and swing trade some of their position.

Not everyone is only a pure "buy-and-hold" long, as this board would sometimes make believe. Actually many longs actively trade somewhat to increase/decrease leverage.

I'll be happy enough with a return to ATH by the end of the week.

 

[KarenRei]

I do worry that with all of this pre-Q3-update price increase, the post-Q3-update price action won't look that impressive.

 

[ebyard]

I find it amusing that the shorts are all turning on Citron, some in a very unpleasant way. Maybe he'll see what these people are really like and reconsider his positions in future.

 

[elasalle]

 

[Yggdrasill]

I dont think short interest will unwind to any significant degree until we are above 400. Getting back to where we were a few weeks ago does not a short squeeze make.

 

[jeewee3000]

Really, really doubt that.

Me too, but I doubt it way less than the "squeeze" everyone keeps talking about.

If it weren't for macro's though, ATH would not be farfetched. Before the privatization tweet we were at $355 and since then we added a superb Q3. A $30 jump from $355 is not a lot to ask for, given great financial results and outlook.

EDIT: changed quoted text to relevant part

 

[loky]

Information for @Fact Checking about M3 cell`s capacity. On this link, it could be found some interesting information:

Request for issuance of a new certificate of Conformity–Initial application for MY2017 Model 3 ‐ Touring

Interesting points:
Model 3 LR Battery capacity (EPA Cycle) 78.27 KWh
Cell 2170 capacity 17.72 Wh
Battery drain (likely) <4%/ month
Charge/discharge total efficiency (Super Charger) cca 88%
Total Battery Voltage, Nominal 350V
Real Battery Specific Energy 163 Wh/Kg
Maximum allowed charging current 525A !!! (up to 210 KW at 400V)...

 

[Ellec]

I dont think short interest will unwind to any significant degree until we are above 400. Getting back to where we were a few weeks ago does not a short squeeze make.

I agree but if we close up today, earnings results could spike it AH. Shorts will want to unwind some today and not be caught with a $420 gap open tomorrow.

 

[Yggdrasill]

I agree but if we close up today, earnings results could spike it AH. Shorts will want to unwind some today and not be caught with a $420 gap open tomorrow.

I think the majority of the shorts would assess that possibility to be negligible. Tesla will go bankwupt, remember?

If we do see 400+ tomorrow, almost all of them will likely be caught off guard. Many will get hit with margin calls, while some will have dry powder and will double down. The unwinding would likely take days, while the SP would keep climbing.

I don't think we'll see 400+ tomorrow though. Maybe 350+.

 

[anon]

Goldman Sachs just downgraded from 210 to 200, according to Street Insider. Market doesn't care though!
Tesla Motors (TSLA) PT Lowered to $200 at Goldman Sachs on 3Q Preview; 'Lower Margin Trajectory in Automotive Segment'

Meanwhile, new coverage with price target of $350 from JMP Securities.
JMP Securities Starts Tesla Motors (TSLA) at Market Outperform

 

[Fact Checking]

I agree but if we close up today, earnings results could spike it AH.

If and only if Q3 cash flow and earnings are indeed a positive surprise.

They might not be:

• GAAP profitability is unclear,
• If it is it might be marginal (say $30m) which will be targeted by FUD,
• Cash flow might be muted by unexpected opex outflow due to delivery hell.
• There might be some bad news disclosed - such as lower than expected Q4 guidance or lower margins.

I do hope it's a beat, but there's a significant chance of it not being entirely convincing - in which case ATH might have to wait for Q4.

So be careful.

 

[dw4ngg]

Goldman Sachs just downgraded from 210 to 200, according to Street Insider. Market doesn't care though!
Tesla Motors (TSLA) PT Lowered to $200 at Goldman Sachs on 3Q Preview; 'Lower Margin Trajectory in Automotive Segment'

Meanwhile, new coverage with price target of $350 from JMP Securities.
JMP Securities Starts Tesla Motors (TSLA) at Market Outperform

Lol..... can they make it anymore obvious?

 

[shlokavica22]

Short interest still not down significantly- Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter


$TSLA short interest is $9.9 billion, 33.79 mm shares shorted, 26.50% of float. #Tesla is once again the most shorted U.S. equity, ahead of $APPL @ $9.3 bn. Shorts down $1.1 billion in mark-to-market losses yesterday. Research note is on our new website Tesla, Inc. – Short Sight

 

[dw4ngg]

Based on this board’s sentiment, I would say ATH is not happening. You guys have been contrarian indicators for quite a few months now

 

[ebyard]

I don't think we'll see 400+ tomorrow though.

Agree, there is no chance. I think it will spike to 340 and settle at 320 ish - if we get even $1 profit announced on the earnings call tonight.

 

[Vad42]

Short interest still not down significantly- Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter


$TSLA short interest is $9.9 billion, 33.79 mm shares shorted, 26.50% of float. #Tesla is once again the most shorted U.S. equity, ahead of $APPL @ $9.3 bn. Shorts down $1.1 billion in mark-to-market losses yesterday. Research note is on our new website Tesla, Inc. – Short Sight

That's 1M more shorted shares this week, since he last reported on Friday 19th. I think they are shorting into this rally/Q report. Today and tomorrow will be very interesting ...