TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Chickenlittle]

Caterpillar is heavily into mining as well as construction. Battery tech is a new and soon to be big thing in underground mining. One of your biggest costs for underground mines is the ventilation system. As a rule of thumb you need 1m^3/min of air for each person underground while you need 3m^3/min of air for EACH horsepower of diesel equipment underground. So never mind the fuel savings which are also decent the ventilation system savings are much more. So if you can get the cost of battery equipment down even close to diesel equipment it's a no brainer.

For open pit mines the Komatsu 930 and new 980 are some of the largest and popular ultra class haul trucks. The diesel engine is used as an AC generator that power the two wheel motors in the rear axle/tires. They use electric motor retarding but shunt the energy to a grid box to bleed it off as heat energy as they have no on board batteries (that's a lot of lost energy seeing you go up and down a ramp for each load in and out of the pit). Caterpillar still uses a mechanical drive train for its popular 797 and pretty much all other haul trucks. Fuel is one of the largest costs in for a open pit mine, and in mountain operations you lose a lot of capacity due to thinner air.

I once did a little excel sheet exercise to see if you could make a Komatsu 930 fully a BEV, but with Teslas battery numbers it's still too heavy and costly. My guess is Cat sees both the current underground market that is already going electric and the opportunity in the open pit market once batteries are energy denser and cheaper.

So Cat is no dummy and knows what dense and cheap batteries mean for the mining industry. Whether Fisker is the right horse to put your money on, well, they were always known for their sexy design lol. Doubt it's Cats only bet though.

I understand arguments but still do not understand this investment so early in development. Do they expect to get prototypes early if so tech is still years away

 

[Boomer19]

Yesterday at open and Friday I bought weeklies from 280 to 420.

Cannot decide if I should sell this afternoon or hold overnight.

My option account gained so much yesterday I’m buying a Tesla with it, as long as I exit appropriately.

Any suggestions?

take your gains. keep some on table for more gains. i wish i took more gains when i had chance. cost me greatly.

 

[Tslynk67]

Today we should actually pass $300 for the last time.

The number of times I've heard similar lines... I'm also optimistic, I think $335 close today and ATH tomorrow, but...

 

[mongo]

I'm rather hesistant about tomorrow. I've been holding/trading $TSLA several years now (as a weak bull because of the high volatility). Just can't help to think that a new serious hitpiece will launch tonight after market close.
Everybody is assuming high buy volume tomorrow and I feel like the shorts are holding back a good playcard to get the stock down aftermarket (Or I just have to stop being paranoid)

Are you time zone/ day shifted? Tonight is the earning call. It will swamp any FUD published after hours.
On mongo's planet the numbers released will be such that tomorrow will be immune from FUD also...

 

[scaesare]

Dyson's electric car - our vision of what it will be like | Autocar
To be built in Singapore.
Not sure if this is because I am a brit, or that I have an ex colleague working on it or for hopefully less superfluous reasons - but this is the only one I'm interested in. Shame that Apple aren't putting up a stronger fight - they really could do if they just got on with it (being 2nd best in the market wouldn't have to undermine their brand value as long as they have a unique angle). I was also hoping Dyson were going to go cheaper but it sounds more like they want to compete with Tesla. Colourful plastic panels on a back to basics Smart car rip-off will do well I'm sure whoever comes up with it.
Today will most likely be the last day that discussing Tesla competitors (killers) is relevant so I thought I would get this in before we all start stressing over tax bills...

This: "Solid-state battery pack developed by Dyson subsidiary Sakti3. Pack is lighter and more energy dense than lithium ion packs and needs little cooling." is where the proof of the pudding will be in the tasting.

Also, it would have been nice if an article about Dyson's car, wasn't one picture of the car's rendering, and four pictures of Dyson, mostly sitting at his desk.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

I'm rather hesistant about tomorrow. I've been holding/trading $TSLA several years now (as a weak bull because of the high volatility). Just can't help to think that a new serious hitpiece will launch tonight after market close.
Everybody is assuming high buy volume tomorrow and I feel like the shorts are holding back a good playcard to get the stock down aftermarket (Or I just have to stop being paranoid)

Does it matter - if you want to buy in for the long term and don't care about daily FUD, a short "hit piece" just means you can buy at a discount.

Besides, earnings will drown out any FUD unless there's a problem with earnings, but that seems extremely unlikely.

Also no matter what is said at earnings, this stock will remain volatile for some time to come.

 

[Ellec]

The number of stops above ATH, which is the top end of a 2-year range is going to be insane. Price piercing will be like a button that sets off 10 ICBMS with nuclear warheads.

(Too much?)

 

[j0hn]

model 3 and model y to be produced at gigafactory 3 according to reuters

 

[KarenRei]

This: "Solid-state battery pack developed by Dyson subsidiary Sakti3. Pack is lighter and more energy dense than lithium ion packs and needs little cooling." is where the proof of the pudding will be int he tasting

Remarks like this make it clear that they don't even understand the problem that they're trying to solve.

Weight (energy density) and pack efficiency are not the problem. Cost per kWh is. If you're focused on energy density, you should be in the electric aircraft industry, not the electric car industry.

 

[Chickenlittle]

I'm rather hesistant about tomorrow. I've been holding/trading $TSLA several years now (as a weak bull because of the high volatility). Just can't help to think that a new serious hitpiece will launch tonight after market close.
Everybody is assuming high buy volume tomorrow and I feel like the shorts are holding back a good playcard to get the stock down aftermarket (Or I just have to stop being paranoid)

Yes of course the articles are already written, maybe some of the old favorites will be used however this earnings announcement is about more than earnings. Margins, last weeks production rate, projections on both of these and guidance projections. Then unknowns such as start date China projection. Have heard 2 yrs 250,000 per year but when does 100k per year start? Don’t turn on the lights and start at 250,000 a year. New chairman of board, a surprise pick? Financing of China factory? Tesla semi update? Paying off loans? Expected ash flow so much more. On top of all this still have shorts panicking too. Of course we don’t know what we don’t know

 

[Unpilot]

Get ready cause...

 

[Krugerrand]

I find it amusing that the shorts are all turning on Citron, some in a very unpleasant way. Maybe he'll see what these people are really like and reconsider his positions in future.

Um...he already knows what they are like. He’s one of them.

 

[Artful Dodger]

TSLA open $301.05

 

[Chickenlittle]

This: "Solid-state battery pack developed by Dyson subsidiary Sakti3. Pack is lighter and more energy dense than lithium ion packs and needs little cooling." is where the proof of the pudding will be int he tasting.

Also, it would have been nice if an article about Dyson's car, wasn't one picture of the car's rendering, and four pictures of Dyson, mostly sitting at his desk.

My dyson portable vacuum battery lasts 10 minutes on a full charge. Perhaps he should demonstrate his battery tech there first

 

[Mkorpal]

And we are taking off!

 

[tivoboy]

The number of times I've heard similar lines... I'm also optimistic, I think $335 close today and ATH tomorrow, but...

I may take that bet. If we can get the feb 380$ Calls over 20$ today I might consider selling some. But I’d have to be willing to hold my shares after post market today. Hmm. Choices choices.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

I just bought 60 more on margin hoping to cash in the rise before the end of the day. A further rise seems so inevitable I cant just sit and watch it

 

[mongo]

Bears in the kitchen with a sink...
200k shares a minute...
Drain is getting plugged though...

 

[GaryW]

Remarks like this make it clear that they don't even understand the problem that they're trying to solve.

Weight (energy density) and pack efficiency are not the problem. Cost per kWh is. If you're focused on energy density, you should be in the electric aircraft industry, not the electric car industry.

Agreed. Mass in a wheeled vehicle matters most when stopping and starting (and to some degree climbing). Range matters most at high speed, and at high speed wind resistance is far more important than mass.

 

[jeewee3000]

I just bought 60 more on margin hoping to cash in the rise before the end of the day. A further rise seems so inevitable I cant just sit and watch it

Ouch. Dropped about $6-8 since then.