TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[KarenRei]

If you halve the cell weight, you will pretty much halve the cost per kWh. (Provided you use basically the same materials.) Energy density is really important.

Not true at all.

1) You don't use the same materials when you switch chemistries.

2) By far, most of the cost of cells is manufacturing costs, not raw materials. Which you should know, as that's the very reason for Gigafactory, to drive down the manufacturing cost through scale.

3) Even if #1 and #2 weren't true, and we were only focused on the active material (say, lithium ions moving between the cathode and anode), different chemistries have different voltages. For example, Li-S has a significantly lower voltage than li-ion. This means more lithium ions have to migrate for a given amount of watt hours. The mass that you're ditching in Li-S is mainly nickel oxides, which are cheap.

4) You jump back to zero manufacturing maturity (and thus high costs) when you switch to an entirely different cell chemistry.

5) Just look at history. When li-ions came out, were they vastly cheaper than NiMHs because they were higher energy density? Precisely the opposite, they were far more expensive.

 

[cheshire cat]

This: "Solid-state battery pack developed by Dyson subsidiary Sakti3. Pack is lighter and more energy dense than lithium ion packs and needs little cooling." is where the proof of the pudding will be in the tasting.

Also, it would have been nice if an article about Dyson's car, wasn't one picture of the car's rendering, and four pictures of Dyson, mostly sitting at his desk.

That' s Ought o car for you

 

[JRP3]

Part of me is expecting the pickup to be a "But wait, there's more!" thing at the end of the Model Y unveiling. Pickups and SUVs are commonly built on the same platform. It just makes sense that they'll engineer them simultaneously and design them for the same line.

If they are going after the fullsize pickup market, which they should, the Y platform would be too small.

 

[Ludalicious]

wasn't expecting yesterday's confirmation candle to be so big after the bullish pin reversal candle. The dip allowed me to get back in at a good price. Going against shotgun trading rules and riding out the quater review... It does look to be a good review in the making though.

 

[bdy0627]

HFTAlert:
There has been an uptick in some fairly large buy programs today targeting between 300-400 issues each time. Each program has come in when $SPY makes another lower low.

 

[Joe F]

Today we should actually pass $300 for the last time.

Hope not...

 

[JRP3]

I expect it to be the same size as Model Y, and built on the same platform. It'll be a monster in terms of power and torque, though....

Pickups normally use body on frame construction, Y will likely be unibody on skateboard.

 

[Ludalicious]

set my sell at 245. Because I believe if we dip below that where in trouble. Sell limit set at 360. Seems to be a solid point of where it might end up.

 

[jhm]

Do we have any day traders that trade against MMD? If this is reliable price action, then a traders should be able gain on average buying at the MMD and selling later in the trading day. Has anyone tried that?

 

[KarenRei]

If they are going after the fullsize pickup market, which they should, the Y platform would be too small.

Not really. If Y is the same length as X, 5,04m, then when you factor in that the bed would extend a bit further back on a pickup than the cabin extends on a SUV, it's very much in Ford F-Series range. Not like SuperCrew-length, but definitely your base F-150 (starts at 5,3m).

 

[Yggdrasill]

Not true at all.

1) You don't use the same materials when you switch chemistries.
2) By far, most of the cost of cells is manufacturing costs, not raw materials. Which you should know, as that's the very reason for Gigafactory, to drive down the manufacturing cost through scale.
3) You jump back to zero manufacturing maturity (and thus high costs) when you switch to an entirely different cell chemistry.

At large scale (like the Gigafactory), raw material costs become the largest factor. And switching chemistry doesn't necessarily mean more expensive raw materials. There's for instance been a lot of talk about using pure lithium for the anode of solid-state batteries. Lithium is relatively cheap.

Now, I'm not saying that switching to a more energy dense chemistry is always advisable, but energy density definitely matters.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I dont think short interest will unwind to any significant degree until we are above 400. Getting back to where we were a few weeks ago does not a short squeeze make.

Ihor D. wrote this morning: "$TSLA short interest is $9.9 billion, 33.79 mm shares shorted, 26.50% of float. #Tesla is once again the most shorted U.S. equity, ahead of $APPL @ $9.3 bn. Shorts down $1.1 billion in mark-to-market losses yesterday. Research note is on our new website Tesla, Inc. – Short Sight"

 

[bhtooefr]

Part of me is expecting the pickup to be a "But wait, there's more!" thing at the end of the Model Y unveiling. Pickups and SUVs are commonly built on the same platform. It just makes sense that they'll engineer them simultaneously and design them for the same line.

Model Y is a CUV, though, and is well-documented as being aimed at the Model 3 platform, whereas pickups are usually on body-on-frame platforms (not always - the Honda Ridgeline isn't, but many truck buyers consider it to not be a "real" truck as a result).

 

[KarenRei]

At large scale (like the Gigafactory), raw material costs become the largest factor.

1. No, it doesn't. Giga is still struggling to hit $100/kWh. Even at today's inflated raw material costs, they're still less than half that price.

2. See every other point I made previously. Particularly about starting from stage zero at manufacturing cost reductions, and our past experience with the costs of newly-introduced chemistries.

And switching chemistry doesn't necessarily mean more expensive raw materials. There's for instance been a lot of talk about using pure lithium for the anode of solid-state batteries. Lithium is relatively cheap.

Lithium is not cheap - it's merely essential. But that says nothing about how expensive the solid electrolyte separator (aka the brand new tech) will be). History says "very much not cheap" in early generations.

Also, you might want to rethink how thrilled you are about the idea of battery cells with lithium metal electrodes. I assume you know the properties of lithium metal?

Now, I'm not saying that switching to a more energy dense chemistry is always advisable, but energy density definitely matters.

For aircraft.

For cars, it's all about cost. And that comes from manufacturing maturity, not "starting anew". Which is why you see everyone plugging a new tech talking up how energy dense it is, or at best how cheap it could "some day become", rather than how cheap it is. Because the answer to the latter is invariably "not at all".

 

[Starno]

The more analysts expect bad about Tesla, the more good financial results will shoot the SP up.

 

[HG Wells]

green

 

[KarenRei]

Model Y is a CUV, though, and is well-documented as being aimed at the Model 3 platform, whereas pickups are usually on body-on-frame platforms (not always - the Honda Ridgeline isn't, but many truck buyers consider it to not be a "real" truck as a result).

I really doubt the Tesla pickup will be body-on-frame. Too heavy = too many batteries, too expensive, too slow charging, etc. I'd expect an integrated unibody approach, where the design is simultaneously engineered for two similar shapes (one with a bed, one without, the front end being common between the two), with the welding process being adapted to be able to handle the differences.

 

[printf42]

What's happening to the call options now?
Almost all my options from Nov to J2020 went up ~8% with SP the same as open...
Some one scooping them up the Porsche-VW way?

 

[Earlian]

People here turn into Pollyannas the instant TSLA has a single good day.

This thread is like high school. Everybody is either ecstatic, depressed, or off topic. Thankfully some caring teachers are around, helping the lost.
The immigrant kids (like me) can learn a lot from the dropped breadcrumbs if wiki-google has the right answer.

Edit: added "off topic" thx @Joe F

 

[beachbum77]

Not really. If Y is the same length as X, 5,04m, then when you factor in that the bed would extend a bit further back on a pickup than the cabin extends on a SUV, it's very much in Ford F-Series range. Not like SuperCrew-length, but definitely your base F-150 (starts at 5,3m).

Actually, a smaller size pickup might have far more global buyer interest. Good example is Ford is re-introducing the Ranger. A smaller pickup would also work well as an EV.