TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[KarenRei]

Agreed. Mass in a wheeled vehicle matters most when stopping and starting (and to some degree climbing). Range matters most at high speed, and at high speed wind resistance is far more important than mass.

To put it another way, if you literally doubled the Model 3 cell-level energy density you'd shave off under 200kg from the vehicle's mass and cut the energy consumption by ~4%. Meanwhile, if you were to instead halve the cell cost you'd cut about $3-5k off the vehicle's production cost. Gee, I wonder which would make a bigger difference in the marketplace... 200kg weight reduction / 4% efficiency improvement, or a $3-5k (plus margin) discount?

Or to put it another way: you could instead put that $3-5k back into the vehicle and build the vehicle out of lighter, more expensive materials, and you'd save a lot more than 200kg! An alumium body-in-white costs about $600-800 more than a steel one, while a CF body-in-white costs about $1200 more.

It's price per kWh that matters more than anything else in the automotive industry. A reduction in price per kWh means you can also increase the number of cells, simultaneously meaning more kWh, greater longevity, faster charge rates, and more power. Higher energy density does not, and often comes with just the opposite (some of the biggest problems with new high-density techs relate to cycle life and C rates)

Only in aircraft (and in oceanic transport / deep sea fishing, at least until floating gigachargers become a thing) is the key enabling tech for going electric "improvements in energy density".

 

[Todd Burch]

Guys, stop being so schizophrenic. It's a typical MMD. Everyone's take on the stock swings wildly from hour to hour.

No wonder the shorts are manipulating TSLA so well.

 

[Lessmog]

Those dastardly Norwegians!

Coming to Sweden to take all your Supercharger spots!

To be honest, that's what they are for, letting the Norwegians come out in the world.
Us locals can charge at home. Though many have second homes here on the coast, too.

 

[jeewee3000]

This thread really is bipolar. Two days ago the sentiment was extremely negative, yesterday Tesla was gonna shoot to Mars and with todays MMD we're screwed again.

Cheer up guys. A few % consolidation is healthy after a +12% rise. If we just close green that's already good enough for me. Then after hours we can spike upwards as planned.

EDIT: @Todd Burch commented the same thing simultaneously.

 

[KarenRei]

This thread really is bipolar. Two days ago the sentiment was extremely negative, yesterday Tesla was gonna shoot to Mars and with todays MMD we're screwed again.

Cheer up guys. A few % consolidation is healthy after a +12% rise. If we just close green that's already good enough for me. Then after hours we can spike upwards as planned.

EDIT: @Todd Burch commented the same thing simultaneously.

People here turn into Pollyannas the instant TSLA has a single good day.

Seriously, people, are you new to this stock or something?

 

[Freder Reeve]

i've got some limit buys lined up on this temporary stairway down ...bounced away from my first set by like 20 cents earlier.
One spiteful group of shorts' dump is another man's treasure.

 

[EVNow]

It seems to me SP is just following the market. Without further news today, that is what I'd expect till the last hour.

 

[Mkorpal]

I'm actually happy to see it riding low. Gives it more room to run AH.

 

[Fobble]

Relax folks. We are still $30 per share higher then yesterday

 

[Alphacrux]

Landing? Still freefall

Mandatory early morning dip.

 

[Yonki]

You think so ? I gave him just over a minute (which is more than Joe Rogan? got) the first thing that sprung to my mind was "Mr Trite" (Bob Newhart - the retirement party) Well worth a listen for younger viewers and a better use of time than listening to this two faced t**t.

Well thanks for making me listen to an hour of Bob Newhart instead of reading TMC Market Action!

Seriously, thanks!

Now back to the Action.

 

[WentOffGrid]

Mandatory early morning dip.

I didn't think we would have any meaningful MMD today, but sorta glad we did. Just used up the last of my dry powder.

 

[abasile]

The Y also completes Tesla's automotive product line nicely, so I'm pretty sure the Y will get priority over the Semi.

Don't forget the Tesla Pickup!

I do agree that the Y seems highly likely to get priority over the Semi. Tesla has priced the Semi pretty aggressively, in my opinion, and the realization of $0.07/kWh for Megacharging (on-road charging for the Semi) is going to require major infrastructure build-out. My guess is that Tesla will start by selling a very limited number of Semis to key customers with more-or-less fixed driving routes.

 

[KarenRei]

Part of me is expecting the pickup to be a "But wait, there's more!" thing at the end of the Model Y unveiling. Pickups and SUVs are commonly built on the same platform. It just makes sense that they'll engineer them simultaneously and design them for the same line.

 

[bdy0627]

My guess is we rise through the day today into close. After that, no idea, even though I expect very solid numbers from the ER.

 

[elasalle]

Don't forget the Tesla Pickup!

I do agree that the Y seems highly likely to get priority over the Semi. Tesla has priced the Semi pretty aggressively, in my opinion, and the realization of $0.07/kWh for Megacharging (on-road charging for the Semi) is going to require major infrastructure build-out. My guess is that Tesla will start by selling a very limited number of Semis to key customers with more-or-less fixed driving routes.

I think Semi has commitment to customers as does Roadster. However these are low volume cars. If monies are not a problem, I think all 3 will happen at once, else Semi, Y then Roadster ..

 

[Freder Reeve]

Don't forget the Tesla Pickup!

I hope it doesn't end up being the monster truck that can carry an f150 in the bed like in the banner image. My favorite pickup all-time is the gmc syclone, I'd actually prefer a small pickup that can go close to roadster speed, but I can see why they'd want to make it at least a full-size pickup to shovel the dirt over ford.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Any suggestions?

Buy and Hold? Use your Options profits to pad your core TSLA holdings, and then hold'em.

 

[KarenRei]

I hope it doesn't end up being the monster truck that can carry an f150 in the bed like in the banner image. My favorite pickup all-time is the gmc syclone, I'd actually prefer a small pickup that can go close to roadster speed, but I can see why they'd want to make it at least a full-size pickup to shovel the dirt over ford.

I expect it to be the same size as Model Y, and built on the same platform. It'll be a monster in terms of power and torque, though....

 

[Yggdrasill]

To put it another way, if you literally doubled the Model 3 cell-level energy density you'd shave off under 200kg from the vehicle's mass and cut the energy consumption by ~4%. Meanwhile, if you were to instead halve the cell cost you'd cut about $3-5k off the vehicle's production cost. Gee, I wonder which would make a bigger difference in the marketplace... 200kg weight reduction / 4% efficiency improvement, or a $3-5k (plus margin) discount?

Or to put it another way: you could instead put that $3-5k back into the vehicle and build the vehicle out of lighter, more expensive materials, and you'd save a lot more than 200kg! An alumium body-in-white costs about $600-800 more than a steel one, while a CF body-in-white costs about $1200 more.

It's price per kWh that matters more than anything else in the automotive industry. A reduction in price per kWh means you can also increase the number of cells, simultaneously meaning more kWh, greater longevity, faster charge rates, and more power. Higher energy density does not, and often comes with just the opposite (some of the biggest problems with new high-density techs relate to cycle life and C rates)

Only in aircraft (and in oceanic transport / deep sea fishing, at least until floating gigachargers become a thing) is the key enabling tech for going electric "improvements in energy density".

If you halve the cell weight, you will pretty much halve the cost per kWh. (Provided you use basically the same materials.) Energy density is really important.