TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Chickenlittle]

Thank you Artful Dodger
You changed my mind about what I was going to do at open.

I have a bunch of J19 340's
Thinking I need to roll them into Feb or March minimum. Any advice guys ?
All at once or 1/3rd at a time. Have to wait 2 days to rebuy as I am all in.

Depends on whether you think it will surpass 340 in the short term. The options will perform best as you pass the target price, much above that and they will perform less than the stock.

 

[KarenRei]

The only byproduct that bums me out is that it means growth will come from organic cash flow.

Tesla is opposed to fundraising through dilution, but not through debt financing on favourable terms. E.g. GF3 is being built with local loans.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Dan, completely off topic, but congratulations on your M3, the first one I have seen with the aero wheels painted silver, love it. If I had seen your car before my purchase, I would likely have opted for the standard aero wheels. Tesla should change their aeros colour to silver, looks classy esp. on blue & red body.

Thank you so much! The silver wheels was very easy to do and I am very happy with the results.

Dan

 

[Yamantasdivar]

I'm pretty much in the same boat. At least in the short term, it's not so much the paper losses that matter as in how confident the paper losses are not symptomatic of a broader problem.

I think I've finally reached a strategy for today, regarding my view of being overexposed to TSLA. I'm going to sell some, but not at opening price, which I just consider unacceptably low for after a report like this. I'll have an order to sell in the ~$331 range, and then some low-probability "in case there's a big rise" orders at ~$345, ~$354, and ~$359. If we never hit ~$331... so be it. Tomorrow I'll reevaluate based on today's market performance and set some more "informed" sell targets which I'll maintain until they're either hit or clearly not going to be hit.

Are many people selling this week? It’s difficult to know how prices will move. Everyone is surprised.

 

[mekberg]

Yeaaaah.... to me he sounded frankly irritated that none of the other companies had picked up on Tesla's invitation to make electric cars. Which makes sense if you think about the mission. Their refusal to make EVs is hampering the mission of accelerating sustainable transport. And he always thought they would get on board eventually, and sooner than *this*.

Tesla wants to help the other carmakers; they don't want to be helped. What Musk is emphasizing is that the other companies *not* taking that invitation is *why* Tesla has an lead which is unsurmountable for several years.

Innovate or die.

We all know what OEMs have chosen. It is only a matter of time.

 

[Matias]

Bought some more. TSLA is now approximately 9% of my portfolio and second biggest investment (biggest is not a public company).

 

[Wooloomooloo]

Apparently the new bear thesis is that Tesla is cooking the book.
I kid you not.

Have you got a source?

 

[KarenRei]

Are many people selling this week? It’s difficult to know how prices will move. Everyone is surprised.

I can't speak for anyone else, but my view has always been that a good Q3 result won't make volatility go away because Tesla's opponents will insist that it was a one-time thing or a manipulated result. Q4 will make it much harder on them, making them purely result to theories of demand erosion, Tesla killers, and a belief that GF3 is a myth. Each quarter that passes will erode these theories.

So long as Q3 remains volatile, one should still sell on highs and buy on lows, on the premise that there will always be someone to FUD/short it down if it gets too high.

 

[ZachF]

CNBC front and center this morning with every analyst's reasoning TSLA is a 'sell'. Embarrassing stuff.

Apparently this wildly expensive first quarter of truly profitable production is the best we're ever going to see. As they continue to ramp, things will get less lean.

Reading these I wonder to myself if there is one adult human being on the planet who buys this nonsense logic.

Here's what every major analyst had to say about Tesla's earnings: 'This quarter was different'

They're just peddling bullsugar and hoping to jawbone a better exit price for themselves and leave the stupid money shorts who listen holding the bag.

 

[mongo]

Almost 3 million shares in first 4 minutes...
And green, oh so green
Gap up is nice

 

[Mkorpal]

I can't speak for anyone else, but my view has always been that a good Q3 result won't make volatility go away because Tesla's opponents will insist that it was a one-time thing or a manipulated result. Q4 will make it much harder on them, making them purely result to theories of demand erosion, Tesla killers, and a belief that GF3 is a myth. Each quarter that passes will erode these theories.

So long as Q3 remains volatile, one should still sell on highs and buy on lows, on the premise that there will always be someone to FUD/short it down if it gets too high.

Yep. Repeat the results will pretty much be necessary. That said, I think most smart and honest shorts won't risk staying in.

 

[Starno]

+7-10% is weak tbh.
TSLA merit a +35% correction.

But that's the beauty of TSLA....

 

[tivoboy]

+7-10% is weak tbh.
TSLA merit a +35% correction.

But that's the beauty of TSLA....

Well, yesterday in the AH 332 was basically a 35% correction up from the 250$ in the week prior. Maybe that WAS the correction?

 

[Ellec]

+7-10% is weak tbh.
TSLA merit a +35% correction.

But that's the beauty of TSLA....

Agree, the best quarter of all time and all you get is an 8% pump. It's still nowhere near where it was pre Tweet.

 

[StapleGun]

It is simply not useful to make an "average driver" car. Psychologically, people won't accept it: we have documentation that people will demand that an autonomous car be *substantially better* than an average driver; for some reason people are way more unhappy if hurt by a mediocre-competence robot than by a mediocre-competence human. Musk knows this, and has quoted a need to be 10 times better and 100 times better at various times. You will not get this by replicating average. It may reduce crashes if deployed as "enhanced driver assistance" (people will accept it if there's a driver to blame) but it will never be allowed as "full self driving".

I think you're looking over my point. A NN behaves much more like a median driver than an average (mean) driver. How many accidents do human drivers get in on their median trip? 0. Yes zero. Not 0.0000001, that is the mean and the part you seem to be ignoring. If a NN can drive as well as a median driver every time then it will have 0 accidents.

Of course this is a gross oversimplification but fundamentally it is valid. Edge cases like your blind curve scenario will have to be solved as well. Sometimes via the NN sometimes with direct input into the algorithm from humans. But that does not invalidate the fact that data collection from average drivers can produce an AI which is much safer than an average driver.

I'll give you the last word so we don't clog up this thread any more than we have.

 

[ZachF]

Here's what that YTD comparison of Tesla vs. other automakers looks like now:

 

[Curt Renz]

This is from my TD Ameritrade newsfeed. CFRA had been a long time TSLA bear that recently upped it from Sell to Hold. Today they say Buy.

CFRA RAISES RATING ON SHARES OF TESLA, INC. TO BUY FROM HOLD

8:38 am ET October 25, 2018 (CFRA)

We raise our 12-month target price to $375 from $285, implying a '20 P/E of 20X. We raise our estimates on higher sales price and lower cost assumptions per vehicle. Our EPS forecasts increase to ($0.30) from ($11.21) for '18, $13.25 from $0.20 for '19, and $18.75 from $5.60 for '20. Tesla posts Q3 adjusted EPS of $2.90 vs. ($2.92) in Q3'17, and well above the ($0.09) consensus. Revenues rose 128.9%. Margin expansion was the primary driver of the beat, as TSLA's blended average cost of sales for the Automotive segment dropped to $52,592 per vehicle from $62,052 in Q2. Its average sales price was also surprisingly strong (falling to $70,168 per vehicle from $76,478 in Q2) considering the number of lower-priced Model 3's in the mix (66.9% of total deliveries vs. 45.3% in Q2). In short, TSLA's Q3 results showed greatly improved operating leverage with increased Model 3 volumes. We also view the $731 million cash increase to $2.97 billion positively, which may ease capital raise concerns.

Tesla stock price target raised to $418 from $385 at Oppenheimer
7:56 am ET October 25, 2018 (MarketWatch)

Tesla stock price target raised to $225 from $195 at J.P. Morgan
7:45 am ET October 25, 2018 (MarketWatch)

 

[jkirkwood001]

It's not just that Tesla had a good Quarter. It's that everyone else is having a bad year. Every other auto manufacturer (except Ferrari) is trading near the bottom of their 52-week range. The writing is on the wall, and even Wall Street is recognizing this.

 

[mongo]

Here's what that YTD comparison of Tesla vs. other automakers looks like now:

Love that TSLA plot
put one of those fingers on each hand up...

 

[mutle]

The insane mind of the Tesla short, back on Video:

five00pagesaday

They have that idiot, we have Galli. The HyperChange Q3 Video was great.