bdy0627
Active Member
I was wondering how long that would take. SEC needs to investigate Tesla on this. The numbers were way too good.
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to me, it’s misinformation by design with wall st when it suits them. intented to take advantage of the misunderstanding/laziness by the masses.
which proves, that one shouldn’t depend on anyone else’s ‘analysis’ before throwing their money at anything. i know you’ve said it numerous times, along with many others.
Food for thought: if TSLA continues to rally, shorts may be forced to cover sooner than anticipated as it's likely their other holdings have been getting hammered, reducing their overall margin power.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Dabbed a bit around on Twitter, for fun, starting from @markbspiegl and branching out. First of all I don't understand the layout of Twitter - who's posting? Who's responding to who etc? (Maybe that says more about my age than anything else, I'm 38 so oldish when it comes to these things). But apart from that: WHAT A CESSPOOL of uninformed negative comments. If this is what us longs are up against I'd say we have nothing to be scared of.
For me, it's actually about what keeps me up at night. If I do the math, I realize the probability-weighted financial consequences of some of the things I *don't* do are actually... not that bad? But it keeps me up at night if I do them, so I don't do them. My health is bad enough and I have enough stress-related illnesses; no amount of money is worth risking it further.
On the other hand, some of the things I do are considered "risky" by others -- for example, long-term investments in things with massive volatility -- but they don't keep me up at night and if they fail I'll calmly shrug even if I'm down by a million dollars, so those, I'll take.
It turns out that emotionally I care much more about losing due to *some types* of risk than others. I will blithely shrug off losses due to certain types of errors (whole market P/Es drop, for instance) and be really upset by losses due to a different type of error (management is defrauding me, for instance). I invest accordingly, to avoid the type of losses which seriously upset me.
For general information:
The single stock Limit Up Limit Down circuit breaker runs off a 5 minute average which starts at open (initial reference value is the average of the first 5 minutes of trading). So the 10% jump from yesterday's close should not result in a trading pause.
per:
https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/content/MarketRegulation/LULD_FAQ.pdf
(I could be misreading it)
The single stock Limit Up Limit Down circuit breaker runs off a 5 minute average which starts at open (initial reference value is the average of the first 5 minutes of trading). So the 10% jump from yesterday's close should not result in a trading pause.
per:
https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/content/MarketRegulation/LULD_FAQ.pdf
(I could be misreading it)
I was wondering how long that would take. SEC needs to investigate Tesla on this. The numbers were way too good.
yes, gordon johnson was on bloomberg accusing them of accounting irregularities.
no backup, no citiation, no facts, just accusations.
how the F is that ok?
he’s a lying piece of dog crap
(and you think i’m harsh, but again, how is this kind of stuff allowed?? it’s not even ‘gamesmanship’. it’s outright lies)
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Hello SEC, how about prosecuting a real case of illegal market manipulation caught on tape, instead of obsessing over Elon's tweets, for a change?
There you go with your flawed, logic-based conclusions! When will you learn?
Chickenlittle
Banned
Actually a lot of shorts considered tsla a way of shorting the entire market not just tsla. So if tsla up and entire market correcting they will cover faster
I'm pretty much in the same boat. At least in the short term, it's not so much the paper losses that matter as in how confident the paper losses are not symptomatic of a broader problem.
I think I've finally reached a strategy for today, regarding my view of being overexposed to TSLA. I'm going to sell some, but not at opening price, which I just consider unacceptably low for after a report like this. I'll have an order to sell in the ~$331 range, and then some low-probability "in case there's a big rise" orders at ~$345, ~$354, and ~$359. If we never hit ~$331... so be it. Tomorrow I'll reevaluate based on today's market performance and set some more "informed" sell targets which I'll maintain until they're either hit or clearly not going to be hit.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
EVNow
Well-Known Member
That’s why we should never consider the market as rational.
After all it considers a likely interest rate hike more dangerous than POTUS threatening nuclear war
Words of HABIT
Active Member
Dan, completely off topic, but congratulations on your M3, the first one I have seen with the aero wheels painted silver, love it. If I had seen your car before my purchase, I would likely have opted for the standard aero wheels. Tesla should change their aeros colour to silver, looks classy esp. on blue & red body.
OK, you've convinced me to make one more point which I had in the back of my head.
I think until the how-to-drive problem is properly specified, which it has not been yet, we won't know what the neural network needs to be able to identify, so we won't know how to start working on the NN training.
Example already brought up: it needs to know when it is approaching a blind curve. This is a pretty complex 3d modeling problem -- not just about modeling the things you can see, but the implications of empty space which you can't see. Example from the other end: identifying that there's someone else on the other side of the blind curve requires listening for their horn. (I don't think Tesla's system even has the microphone pickup yet.) Another example: identifying the type of road surface (dirt, gravel, grass) is actually quite important for certain driving tasks.
Until the specification of the how-to-drive problem is nailed down, we don't actually know what the neural network needs to be able to identify. I fully expect that when the how-to-drive problem is being seriously worked on, it will end up requiring a basically-from-scratch retraining of the neural network because it'll have to pick out data which they didn't previously realize was necessary.
This is the problem with not understanding what problem you're working on.
(For this reason, I think Tesla's existing data collection isn't worth much of anything. Having the largest fleet of cars on the road to collect data with will, however, be worth quite a lot sometime in the future when they actually have a self-driving problem specification -- they'll be able to do that training stage much quicker than anyone who doesn't have millions of instrumented cars on the road. They will, however, be starting from scratch at that point.)
Seriously? Is there evidence for this? I mean, this would make shorts even dumber than I thought, because it means they didn't bother to look up R^2.
mekberg
Member
Throw in a $100-500 supercharger credit and you've got a solid idea.
Except CA state taxes. :/
X Fan
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