TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[MP3Mike]

Right. I have, there are three in my town. You don't know what to do when you encounter one, do you?

I do, because it's actually documented. And prescribed by law. A "thanks for good driving" prize to the first other person on this board who knows what it is. (Betcha nobody in Tesla's self-driving team knows.) You're gonna laugh when you find out.

You honk your horn before you go around the blind corner...

 

[tivoboy]

Throw in a $100-500 supercharger credit and you've got a solid idea.

Except CA state taxes. :/

Yeah, they gotta work out that last part.. then it could be an interesting offering and a LOT of people would go for it.

 

[Lucky_Man]

Won't work for me as the CA tax would cost way more than trucking the car to me...

I paid the entire tax due on my model S when I registered my car - in Colorado. Where do most buyers pay the tax on the car?

 

[Hogfighter]

Sold a few calls today, since any qualified financial advisor worth his weight in salt would have a coronary if he saw my portfolio.

 

[Artful Dodger]

IhorD(S3) reports huge spike in TSLA shorted shares:
(this is yesterday's data from his overnight Cmptr run)

Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter

$TSLA short interest $10.4 bn, 35.4 mm shares shorted 27.76% of float. Shares shorted down 664k ahead of a stellar earnings report yesterday.#Tesla's aftermarket stock price rise continues, stock was up as much as 13%,now up 10%. Shorts down $851 million in mark-to-market losses.​

 

[mspohr]

No way bmw m3 sales worldwide are 500k. Maybe 3 series. Not M3

Yes, I meant Series 3.

 

[Causalien]

The short is strong with tsla.

Stock have jumped for 10%+ from less than 50 cents eps beats. Tesla beat by $2. On top of all, Tesla was at a low with RSI below 20. It probably takes time for this to sink in and the shorts have to go through 5 phases of grief. Denial is today.

 

[ZachF]

It's not just that Tesla had a good Quarter. It's that everyone else is having a bad year. Every other auto manufacturer (except Ferrari) is trading near the bottom of their 52-week range. The writing is on the wall, and even Wall Street is recognizing this.

View attachment 346855

At those prices we need ~$322 SP to become #3 in market cap, and ~$402 to become #2.

 

[Boomer19]

The insane mind of the Tesla short, back on Video:

five00pagesaday

They have that idiot, we have Galli. The HyperChange Q3 Video was great.

don’t even bother drawing more attention to these clowns. it legitimizes them. they’re scared, and they should be.

 

[defc0n]

Sold my large position at $319.50. Sold small position at $318.72 and bought it back in at $311.50. Will re-evaluate as I get a better feel on macros and upcoming election, etc.

 

[ggr]

Screw the wash sale rule. Unless you have such staggering losses that no amount of gains can offset them on your taxes, just buy in if you think your gains will easily outweigh the tax write-off. Of course if you don't think this will happen, you should probably hold back.

Not an advice etc.

Agree, and anyway, the tax loss doesn't go away, it just transfers to the cost basis of the new stock, so it's deferred, not gone.

 

[neroden]

I think you're looking over my point. A NN behaves much more like a median driver than an average (mean) driver. How many accidents do human drivers get in on their median trip? 0. Yes zero. Not 0.0000001, that is the mean and the part you seem to be ignoring. If a NN can drive as well as a median driver every time then it will have 0 accidents.

Of course this is a gross oversimplification but fundamentally it is valid. Edge cases like your blind curve scenario will have to be solved as well. Sometimes via the NN sometimes with direct input into the algorithm from humans. But that does not invalidate the fact that data collection from average drivers can produce an AI which is much safer than an average driver.

I'll give you the last word so we don't clog up this thread any more than we have.

OK. My last word is that "avoiding accidents" isn't our only goal. (I actually think we can, right now, make cars which will simply refuse to crash into anything. Ever. We should do that. Right now.)

The median driver is, in my opinion, rude and somewhat scary to be around, and can't handle even slightly unusual situations.

People tolerate this from other humans, they don't tolerate it from robots. Robots should be better than humans (cue Isaac Asimov reference... ).

 

[tivoboy]

Agree, and anyway, the tax loss doesn't go away, it just transfers to the cost basis of the new stock, so it's deferred, not gone.

What? If he for example has a short term tax loss, (probably the case based on the scenario he described) and now takes a long position and sells ultimately for a LT gain, those two won't offset each other.

 

[neroden]

You honk your horn before you go around the blind corner...

Thank you, you also win the good driver prize

 

[supratachophobia]

I can't speak for anyone else, but my view has always been that a good Q3 result won't make volatility go away because Tesla's opponents will insist that it was a one-time thing or a manipulated result. Q4 will make it much harder on them, making them purely result to theories of demand erosion, Tesla killers, and a belief that GF3 is a myth. Each quarter that passes will erode these theories.

So long as Q3 remains volatile, one should still sell on highs and buy on lows, on the premise that there will always be someone to FUD/short it down if it gets too high.

This is true, it will take 2 back to back quarters to set a trend of profitablity. But the energy thing is still so untapped, so so untapped.

 

[KarenRei]

Nasdaq and TSLA are only 5% apart. This is ridiculous :Þ

 

[EVNow]

The short is strong with tsla.

Stock have jumped for 10%+ from less than 50 cents eps beats. Tesla beat by $2. On top of all, Tesla was at a low with RSI below 20. It probably takes time for this to sink in and the shorts have to go through 5 phases of grief. Denial is today.

It isn't even following the market ! Tesla down from opening - but market is sharply up.

 

[ggr]

Ford (F) is us more, percentage-wise, than TSLA, which is dropping back. Ford just recalled 1.5 million cars (pretty much all Ford Focuses).

 

[neroden]

For those of us who follow Papafox's analysis, this looks like an aggressive attempt at an MMD which isn't really working.

I still am invested in a merger arb which I hope will cash out in December or January... if Tesla is still at these levels by the time it cashes out, screw my position percentages, I'm getting more. But right now I have no cash.

 

[farzyness]

I think people will be very happy with how TSLA ends the day. This is nothing folks.