TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Causalien]

Today I got a weird private message from a one day old account @Niedermeyer who claims to be "Ed Niedermeyer, reporter for Automotive News", requesting that I identify myself to him to prove whether I'm Elon or not.

Just to state the obvious: I'm not Elon, nor a Tesla insider or employee, nor am I affiliated with Tesla or with any of Elon's companies directly or indirectly, in any shape or form. I'm not a public figure, I'm a Tesla and SpaceX fan living in Europe, as my "location" tag and the time stamps of my comments already reveal. I'm somewhat obsessed with checking facts, as my user name suggests, and I love speculating about Tesla with other Tesla supporters here on TMC.

(I also hope that no Tesla insider is posting and speculating on TMC - it would probably be highly inappropriate on several levels.)

That my joke about the "Shortseller Enrichment Committee" found its way to Elon via Twitter was funny - I wish some of my other, more serious comments and suggestions about Tesla found their way to Elon as well.

On a related note, congratulations to Tesla, Elon and Tesla supporters for the outstanding execution of the Model 3 ramp-up that helped generate 1.4 billion dollars of cash in the last quarter, $881m of which was free cash flow.

This quarter should put to rest the various concerns Ed Niedermeyer expressed about Tesla's business model in the past: generating ~20% of cash from revenue is about twice that of Amazon's cash generation rate - and Tesla might soon join Amazon and Apple as another U.S. company reaching a trillion dollar valuation.

LOL. Ignore him. Noodlemaker did that to me too. But he was just griefing me instead of accusing me of being Elon. He got quite a few followers so expect him to use his army for cyber bullying. Do not give him any personally identifying information.

 

[Unpilot]

Looking through the last few hours of post's was fun......someone posted that the OEM's would provide a EV if only consumer's wanted one.
Well that reminded me of the last time I walked into a dealers show room to buy a Chevy Volt. I had not set foot in a dealer show room in years and for good reason. Unpleasant snake oil salesmen like creatures from the black lagoon descend on you. A most unpleasant experience. No I don't want undercoating...or window etching...or nitrogen in my tires.

They deserve to die.

 

[omarsultan]

Where did this number come from?
According to Q3 letter,
"Of the 455,000 net reservations that we reported in August 2017, less than 20% have cancelled. We are expecting most of the remaining reservations to gradually convert to orders as we launch more versions of Model 3, introduce other financing options, and begin sales outside North America."

I read this as 455,000*0.8=364,000 reservations were not cancelled and this number was reduced by some % like 80-90% of the ~100k deliveries that happened so far.

So, the remaining should be under 300k.

Yeah, I did the same math on the reservations based on that quote (80% of 455K). I am not sure about the validity of taking another 80K-90K off that number. The following sentence about the remaining reservations gradually converting implies to me that most of the remaining 360K are in non-NA markets where the Model 3 is not yet available or folks waiting for the SR edition. I would imagine the MR pulled some of those folks off the fence. I would imagine leasing will do the same but it seems Tesla does not need to work that demand lever yet.

 

[SOULPEDL]

You know Elon has been on Big Bang at least once and on Young Sheldon as well. I think they would love to have a story involving a Tesla in their final year and I seriously doubt there would be any money exchanged for product placement. What a way to go out, in ludicrous mode!

OK, so I sent a letter to CBS Audience Services Info and Feedback (BBT selection) regarding your idea, and to contact me for quoting the commercial. Need to start somewhere

The recommendation was to use their M3 Prototype with the new AI chip on the show. How cool would that be! I'm sure the season script is pretty locked in, but still possible I think.

 

[ZachShahan]

Seriously, are we not talking about this?
Elon Musk on Twitter
I developed this habit of nervously refreshing Twitter at 4:20PM in recent weeks, hopping Elon will not tweet something stupid.
Then, this happened.
So, it’s time again? 421 is the new 420?
I really wish I was overthinking, or he’s just teasing shorts.
If he is serious, there goes my OTM leap calls down the drain, again! WTF!!!

He's obviously just having fun over there. Has had to tweet less about Tesla it seems, and is instead tweeting more loopy/fun stuff on other topics to just have fun.

That said, maybe he has a notification to remind him to tweet at 4:20

 

[ZachShahan]

Today I got a weird private message from a one day old account @Niedermeyer who claims to be "Ed Niedermeyer, reporter for Automotive News", requesting that I identify myself to him to prove whether I'm Elon or not.

Just to state the obvious: I'm not Elon, nor a Tesla insider or employee, nor am I affiliated with Tesla or with any of Elon's companies directly or indirectly, in any shape or form. I'm not a public figure, I'm a Tesla and SpaceX fan living in Europe, as my "location" tag and the time stamps of my comments already reveal. I'm somewhat obsessed with checking facts, as my user name suggests, and I love speculating about Tesla with other Tesla supporters here on TMC.

(I also hope that no Tesla insider is posting and speculating on TMC - it would probably be highly inappropriate on several levels.)

That my joke about the "Shortseller Enrichment Committee" found its way to Elon via Twitter was funny - I wish some of my other, more serious comments and suggestions about Tesla found their way to Elon as well.

On a related note, congratulations to Tesla, Elon and Tesla supporters for the outstanding execution of the Model 3 ramp-up that helped generate 1.4 billion dollars of cash in the last quarter, $881m of which was free cash flow.

This quarter should put to rest the various concerns Ed Niedermeyer expressed about Tesla's business model in the past: generating ~20% of cash from revenue is about twice that of Amazon's cash generation rate - and Tesla might soon join Amazon and Apple as another U.S. company reaching a trillion dollar valuation.

I think that's freakin' hilarious.

But agree with the Icelander and think you could have found some way to tease him and waste his time. Clearly doesn't find a lot of useful ways to spend it anyway.

 

[sunhelm]

Okay wrong word. How about apples and oranges? Or skewed?

You just can't compare the two sets of numbers was my obvious point.

It's your argument that's flawed. If I make a sale from a cash payment for a $100 (direct sale) vs. a credit card sale net of fees for $98 (dealer sale) both are still sales but of course you would report a discounted revenue on the credit card due to the middleman fee.

You can't fault Tesla for the sheer genius of taking out the middle man. Simple as that.

 

[shrspeedblade]

Wow, what an ass! Is there a special Hell for idiot shorts? I want my 2 minutes back. That was all I could take.

That video does almost as much to reinforce my long position as this forum does!
(Don't worry, it's only almost!)

I watched the whole thing- it was kind of like watching Fox News the night of the 2012 election!

 

[Unpilot]

It's your argument that's flawed. If I make a sale from a cash payment for a $100 (direct sale) vs. a credit card sale net of fees for $98 (dealer sale) both are still sales but of course you would report a discounted revenue on the credit card due to the middleman fee.

You can't fault Tesla for the sheer genius of taking out the middle man. Simple as that.

See my post above...the middle man was evil and needed to die. I think the whole dealer network is a pack of rent seeking leeches.

No I don't like them much at all.

 

[wipster]

OK, so I sent a letter to CBS Audience Services Info and Feedback (BBT selection) regarding your idea, and to contact me for quoting the commercial. Need to start somewhere

The recommendation was to use their M3 Prototype with the new AI chip on the show. How cool would that be! I'm sure the season script is pretty locked in, but still possible I think.

Well done! As you say, gotta start somewhere!

 

[Sudre]

"I thought there was some chance we'd see a near term bankruptcy on Tesla, but now that is probably off the table"

- Mark B. Speigel on Yahoo Finance

​

Off the table? I think someone took Speigel's whole table. He's lucky he still has a chair.... can't wait for Elon to snatch that out from under his @@@ after Q4.

 

[RobStark]

That depends. If the $35k Model 3 is driven ~200 miles a day and the $60k Model 3 is driven ~30 miles a day the $35k Model 3 does reduce CO2 emissions more.

Also if the $35k Model 3 is replacing an old gas guzzler while the $60k Model 3 replaces a modern Prius the $35k Model 3 does reduce CO2 emissions more.

The difference isn't the price.

The difference is how it is used.

 

[Fact Checking]

I watched the whole thing- it was kind of like watching Fox News the night of the 2012 election!

Mind summarizing the current short thesis, if there's any coherence to the arguments?

I would also love to see a SA comments selection about Q3 results from @KarenRei as well - the ones she quoted from the SEC settlement discussion were worth gold!

 

[SO16]

Today I got a weird private message from a one day old account @Niedermeyer who claims to be "Ed Niedermeyer, reporter for Automotive News", requesting that I identify myself to him to prove whether I'm Elon or not.

Just to state the obvious: I'm not Elon, nor a Tesla insider or employee, nor am I affiliated with Tesla or with any of Elon's companies directly or indirectly, in any shape or form. I'm not a public figure, I'm a Tesla and SpaceX fan living in Europe, as my "location" tag and the time stamps of my comments already reveal. I'm somewhat obsessed with checking facts, as my user name suggests, and I love speculating about Tesla with other Tesla supporters here on TMC.

(I also hope that no Tesla insider is posting and speculating on TMC - it would probably be highly inappropriate on several levels.)

That my joke about the "Shortseller Enrichment Committee" found its way to Elon via Twitter was funny - I wish some of my other, more serious comments and suggestions about Tesla found their way to Elon as well.

On a related note, congratulations to Tesla, Elon and Tesla supporters for the outstanding execution of the Model 3 ramp-up that helped generate 1.4 billion dollars of cash in the last quarter, $881m of which was free cash flow.

This quarter should put to rest the various concerns Ed Niedermeyer expressed about Tesla's business model in the past: generating ~20% of cash from revenue is about twice that of Amazon's cash generation rate - and Tesla might soon join Amazon and Apple as another U.S. company reaching a trillion dollar valuation.

I just want to say thank you for your work here. I don’t have the time, patience, or probably skill set (yup, I’ll admit it)... to do what you do. Keep fighting the good fight.

 

[wipster]

Odometer tax. In my state we have to report the odometer reading every year when we have the car inspected, so at least in NY that is NOT a problem. The fee can be charged along with registration based on miles driven the previous year, really easy, really really easy. I mean trivially easy.

I suppose it would be a problem in states which don't require an annual inspection, but there aren't very many of those...

Just tax the electricity fueling an electric car for the equivalent miles as ICE vehicle fuel is and problem solved.

 

[suspectusual]

First post here ..

Big fan of Elon Musk for what he does and what he stands for!

 

[RobStark]

Depends how you look a it. For an individual car, sure, but a $35K Model 3 is going to get a heck of a lot more people out of ICEs than a $60K one.

Good grief.

Tesla is production constrained. And will be for years.

If Tesla makes a Million Model 3s with ASP of $60k or a Million Model 3s with an ASP of $35k it does not make a difference to CO2.

For the foreseeable future Tesla does not need to generate demand by producing a $35k car.

Like I previously posted I think Tesla should make 5% of production base models and allow everyone who had a reservation prior to July 1,2017 a chance to buy the base version at $35k.

No bait'n switch. Promise made, promise delivered even if a tad late.

Then raise the price.

Later if legacy OEMs don't step up to the plate Tesla can make a Model A with base price of $20k. A true subcompact hatchback. The dream car of so many Europeans and American urbanites.

 

[azaz]

Good grief.

Tesla is production constrained. And will be for years.

If Tesla makes a Million Model 3s with ASP of $60k or a Million Model 3s with an ASP of $35k it does not make a difference to CO2.

For the foreseeable future Tesla does not need to generate demand by producing a $35k car.

Like I previously posted I think Tesla should make 5% of production base models and allow everyone who had a reservation prior to July 1,2017 a chance to buy the base version at $35k.

No bait'n switch. Promise made, promise delivered even if a tad late.

Then raise the price.

Later if legacy OEMs don't step up to the plate Tesla can make a Model A with base price of $20k. A true subcompact hatchback. The dream car of so many Europeans and American urbanites.

Elon made it clear they will drop the price as far as they can while making money.

 

[bhtooefr]

Just tax the electricity fueling an electric car for the equivalent miles as ICE vehicle fuel is and problem solved.

How do you tax electricity generated and used fully behind the meter? (Note that the homemade biodiesel crowd found mixed results - some states had paperwork that could be manually filled out to report the fuel used, most states decided to just not bother. With solar and home storage, though, that's a much larger market.)

How do you distinguish between electricity used to charge, and electricity used for off-road use? (With fuel, there's red dye in untaxed fuel, with a chemical marker that persists so authorities can detect that it was used recently even after the vehicle's been refilled with taxed fuel. Can't exactly have red electrons.)

 

[Thekiwi]

Earnings multiple not appropriate; try rev multiple of 2.5-4x

I hate revenue multiples - they are almost meaningless.

Earnings multiples and earnings growth ratios are way better.