TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Waiting4M3]

Does this imply demand constraint?

"The Elon Musk-led carmaker will suspend Model S and Model X production Thursday and Friday because it’s ahead of target on building those this quarter, Peter Hochholdinger, vice president of production, wrote to employees in a March 21 email obtained by Bloomberg News."

I think more likely they're trying to save 1 day of production cost on MS/X to improve margin, and also likely to reduce the chance of a logistic bottleneck that can cause delays in M3 deliveries right at the end of the quarter.

 

[bdy0627]

Disappointment is the gap between expectation and reality

I would love to be disappointed on that!

 

[Tenable]

If Tesla's heroic 300 car week happens, that theoretically put them at 1200/ mo. Do you think missing the projection by over 50% will stave off another Moody's downgrade?

LOL, did you just write 300 cars a week? You win. TSLA will drop hard. However, I'll give you 1.5 to 1 on any amount of money we beat that rate. I'll even postulate we do it at a steady state. Your move good sir.

 

[SteveG3]

watch on air Bloomberg presenter's head nearly explode as she starts reading some copy on this story, then sees in what's written next that Tesla used the term "hater" and gets caught like a dear in the headlight between colliding into actually presenting her audience Tesla's rebuttal or having to shift gears in the moment on live TV.

Tesla Urges Workers to Prove ‘Haters’ Wrong

 

[Waiting4M3]

Me too. I bought more today with how the stock was acting even though I added some yesterday around the same level, but I'm way over allocated to TSLA now. It will soon be time to figure out my exit plans. That's a lot more enjoyable but challenging.

That's like saying Tesla has too much automation for M3 production. It may look suspect now, but when Tesla works out the kinks, it's gonna look great.

 

[Starno]

 

[bdy0627]

Whoa! This could be the mother of all reversal candles! Now that would really make for a Good Friday.

 

[X Yes?]

LOL, did you just write 300 cars a week? You win. TSLA will drop hard. However, I'll give you 1.5 to 1 on any amount of money we beat that rate. I'll even postulate we do it at a steady state. Your move good sir.

Thanks guys. Yes, you would win the bet. I'll correct my typo.

 

[Mkorpal]

At this rate, we might pick up 7% today.

I really like this news. More than 200 a day already, means more than 1400 a week which while not amazing, is enough to keep everything afloat. And it seemed they were confident that they would move up to 300 at least this week. They obviously wound't be saying that if the lines simply weren't capable of it. It seems to be more of a matter of just doing it and the labor of moving that many cars out of the factory. I'm fairly confident that they will hit 300 a day at some point this week and state they were at a 2100 rate when they release the numbers Monday or Tuesday. It's not quite the 2500 sustained rate, but will be enough. I also now expect them to re-iterate the 5000 rate by the end of Q2 again (and possibly hint at an earlier target).

 

[SteveG3]

Whoa! This could be the mother of all reversal candles! Now that would really make for a Good Friday.

you think this move is due to something on a TA chart?

 

[bdy0627]

Looks like there will be a battle for $265.

 

[Starno]

At this rate, we might pick up 7% today.

I really like this news. More than 200 a day already, means more than 1400 a week which while not amazing, is enough to keep everything afloat. And it seemed they were confident that they would move up to 300 at least this week. They obviously wound't be saying that if the lines simply weren't capable of it. It seems to be more of a matter of just doing it and the labor of moving that many cars out of the factory. I'm fairly confident that they will hit 300 a day at some point this week and state they were at a 2100 rate when they release the numbers Monday or Tuesday. It's not quite the 2500 sustained rate, but will be enough. I also now expect them to re-iterate the 5000 rate by the end of Q2 again (and possibly hint at an earlier target).

This would be in line with what I projected a few weeks ago. I think they'll get to 2500+ consistent rate by mid May.

 

[bdy0627]

you think this move is due to something on a TA chart?

The battle over $265 seems to be chart-related. What else would cause a battle there?

 

[Waiting4M3]

At this rate, we might pick up 7% today.

I really like this news. More than 200 a day already, means more than 1400 a week which while not amazing, is enough to keep everything afloat. And it seemed they were confident that they would move up to 300 at least this week. They obviously wound't be saying that if the lines simply weren't capable of it. It seems to be more of a matter of just doing it and the labor of moving that many cars out of the factory. I'm fairly confident that they will hit 300 a day at some point this week and state they were at a 2100 rate when they release the numbers Monday or Tuesday. It's not quite the 2500 sustained rate, but will be enough. I also now expect them to re-iterate the 5000 rate by the end of Q2 again (and possibly hint at an earlier target).

The most encouraging thing is that FIeld said "keep climbing from 300 through the end of the week", this seems to me that this is not a burst rate, and they plan to keep climbing and starting April at >300/day rate. I hope we hear some language to this effect in the delivery report due Mon/Tue.

 

[SteveG3]

The battle over $265 seems to be chart-related. What else would cause a battle there?

come on bdy,

1) that's not what we were talking about (my response was to your earlier post about "mother of reversal candles", not the post about $265 you wrote after my response)

2) we don't know that there is a $265 "battle"

3) if it moves up and down around $265 it could and likely is for millions of reasons- all the various things going through the minds of thousands of market participants- assuming it's all about a chart?

 

[Mkorpal]

This would be in line with what I projected a few weeks ago. I think they'll get to 2500+ consistent rate by mid May.

If the goal is to push "through" 300/day this week, as was implied, we may see it sooner. It's only 357/day. to hit 2500/week.

 

[Tenable]

you think this move is due to something on a TA chart?

No, but the area we close in will affect the TA chart.

 

[tander]

As this video which has been linked at least twice--https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/2624289/ and General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable -- states: "The answer is CASH!"

Tesla's "pipes 1 and 2" will require growing amounts of cash over the next several years if it is to achieve its expansion and growth plans (for instance GF-1 is less than 30% complete not to mention the investments needed in GFs #3-5+) Tesla's recourse is for "pipe 3" to continue to fill the cash bucket as pipes 1 and 2 extract from the cash bucket.

Pipe 3 has two sources of cash: debt and equity capital raises. Moody's credit rating downgrade effectively eliminates future debt raises from conventional institutional sources, until Tesla can demonstrate that it will generate cash from pipe #1 to begin repaying existing secured and un-secured creditors. Tesla does have about $700 MM in un-used commitments from the secured ABL creditors, but not only are LIBOR rates popping, but the entire line must be repaid or refinanced by June 2020. I'll leave it to those who have never experienced a corporate liquidity/refinancing crisis from the inside to assure there are no worries about a credit downgrade.

If new debt is difficult or unavailable that leaves follow-on sales of additional common shares from pipe #3 to re-fill the cash bucket.

Curious Sunbird offered his thoughts above in response to your question. Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

Wheeler knew cash is king--the credit down grade means favorable trade credit terms will be more difficult and likely consume more of the un-committed ABL line for LOCs. From experience, the decline in share price doesn't help internal morale when stock-based compensation is a meaningful part of remuneration for employees.

Yeah maybe I should have clarified, I just meant why try and raise cash now if in six months or nine just to be safe they will likely have increased revenue greatly from model three, maybe posted a profitable quarter or two, likely improved credit ratings and stock prices.

 

[bdy0627]

come on bdy,

1) that's not what we were talking about (my response was to your earlier post about "mother of reversal candles", not the post about $265 you wrote after my response)

2) we don't know that there is a $265 "battle"

3) if it moves up and down around $265 it could and likely is for millions of reasons- all the various things going through the minds of thousands of market participants- assuming it's all about a chart?

My candle comment was just a description of what shows up on the chart when a stock goes down earlier in the day and then goes strongly positive. Nothing predictive about the candle causing the move. It's simply a reflection of the move. Such a move suggests a trend reversal for the stock. You don't need the candle to assess that but it's a pretty simple visual indication of it.

I don't actually understand why, but $265 is a level that traders are talking about that TSLA needs to stay above to confirm trend reversal technically. Since traders are focused on it, it may be helpful to keep an eye on it for those who are buying and selling options.

 

[Richard007]

Picked up 100 shares in past week, adding to core position. Bought this AM 30 more shares. Will buy more at end of day. Sub $300 is a terrific sale price that we may never see again, ever (unless we get a split around $1,500!).

I have faith.

The kids and grand kids will remember you as a genius as they dive into pool at vacation home.