TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Paracelsus]

hello new clue on ramp progress!

Tesla Urges Workers to Prove the ‘Haters’ Wrong and Ramp Up Production

"Doug Field, senior vice president of engineering, said if the team can exceed 300 Model 3s a day it would be an “incredible victory” at a time when some investors are casting doubt on the company and shorting its stock."

And what a coincidence that good news starts to flow just as all the MM's have managed to place TSLA in the 250 range right on the last day of Q1. Considering that TSLA opened the year at 320 and a move towards 500 after reaching a production rate of 5,000 per week is not unlikely before the end of the year with a subsequent pullback to the 425 range..........that would give every long that holds for the year the BFPT average move of about 33% for the year, and now of course it would give all the MM's about twice that + anything they can make in between. Timing and numbers are a little too coincidental in this move. The Quarterly window dressings of this stock have always been transparently supported by CNBC, WSJ, GS, and others.

What should be more interesting for me is the fibonacci retracement possibilities to the 425-500 range. Following some insightful posts by @austinEV and @Jonathan Hewitt, several of us posted on this many months ago and saw that a move to around 600 was possible to subsequently fall back into the same 425-500 range at the end of the retracement. I need to dig up that homework and look at it again because this is all starting to look a little like deja vu again (did I just say that?), even down to the transition from negative to positive news on the last day of a month and quarter. But for the fibonacci calculations the most important data point is determining the 'break out' price. Do we still use the 305 resistance point for that?

And speaking of the 305 resistance point, I owe @Mike Smith an apology - he called the move under that price and I thought it would hold. Sorry about that Mike. I hope my reasoning for that - the concern of MM's regarding the ability for long term investors to reduce the float and thus their ability to manipulate it still holds true.

Wish I had some dry powder already in the account. But this game is rigged all the way down to the delays that the trading houses have instituted for us to move money into the accounts, for checks to clear and settle, and for other trades to settle. These moves can only be played by people watching closely with money already on the sidelines.....and perhaps even tipped off. If I wired money to trade today I might get to use it to play when it clears by the end of next week when the production numbers are already released after a long weekend with banks shut down. Buy. Hold. Watch. Learn. Buy more to hold with improved timing when possible.

 

[Waiting4M3]

I don't know, I read it as bad news tbh. This is another "burst rate"/"extrapolated" kind of thing if you have to pull people from other lines and make them work extra hard. That would also mean that assembly line has a bottleneck, not only the battery line in GF. I'd rather have them solid 1.5-2k without effort than 2.5k pushing hard.

They are at 200/day now and climbing to 300, and keep climbing from there, it's not a burst rate if it keeps going up.

Also they're not shutting down MS/X lines to move people to M3. Tesla is shutting down MS/X because they already reached their production target for the quarter.Those people have to take unpaid day (Friday) off or use up a PTO (vacation) day. If they don't want that they have the option to work on M3 line, but no one is required to move over to work on the M3.

This is likely a financial-related move, Tesla can save 1 day of production cost on the MS/X line. It could also possibly be logistically related, their transportation logistics may not have ramped as quickly as M3 production. They may have too many M3s to move so they want to make sure MS/X won't clog up the parking lot on the last days of the quarter.

 

[Tenable]

get excited or not, this is time to buy if you've been waiting.

we could be $280+ by the close.

I've purchased far far too much already

 

[SteveG3]

The other bit of news in there is that they hit their goal for X/S---which would be 25k right?

maybe only 22K or so, like last quarter... why? helps in plan to defer 200K US deliveries to Q3. not a sure thing, but, I think more likely than not.

 

[Big Earl]

GTC limit sell on all shares at $1,337. No shares for you, shorts.

 

[bdy0627]

hello new clue on ramp progress!

Tesla Urges Workers to Prove the ‘Haters’ Wrong and Ramp Up Production

"Doug Field, senior vice president of engineering, said if the team can exceed 300 Model 3s a day it would be an “incredible victory” at a time when some investors are casting doubt on the company and shorting its stock."

"At the time of Field’s email, Tesla was making more than 200 Model 3 sedans a day on every line, he wrote. Field urged workers to quickly break through the 300-cars-a-day barrier and keep going, while keeping quality standards high."

I'm taking odds we've bottomed up to 75% (90% if you exclude shorts trying to game pricing in the pre-market, first hour or two of Monday's trading).

Very very likely we just got what we've been waiting for. It's super likely right there, no need to wait until others see this to see it for ourselves.

This will almost certainly be spun negatively as a temporary burst rate, but this information does appear to confirm that we are correct about Tesla being right around 1,400 last week and increasing from there. If they can get to 2,000/week shortly, that's quite impressive progress. Here's hoping it's sustainable into Q2. Perhaps we could even see 3,000+ by the end of April, which would be awesome at this point.

 

[Tslynk67]

GTC limit sell on all shares at $1,337. No shares for you, shorts.

Bit low, isn't it, where's your ambition?

 

[Big Earl]

But low, isn't it, where's your ambition?

I'll have to keep an eye on that and increase it as necessary.

 

[bdy0627]

Lets not get too excited just yet TSLA needs to get above 265 and hold. Otherwise, we may just move right back down.

I'm expecting an intense whack the mole to keep us below that level.

 

[bdy0627]

I don't know, I read it as bad news tbh. This is another "burst rate"/"extrapolated" kind of thing if you have to pull people from other lines and make them work extra hard. That would also mean that assembly line has a bottleneck, not only the battery line in GF. I'd rather have them solid 1.5-2k without effort than 2.5k pushing hard.

I expect it to be spun this way by sell side analysts.

 

[SteveG3]

This will almost certainly be spun negatively as a temporary burst rate, but this information does appear to confirm that we are correct about Tesla being right around 1,400 last week and increasing from there. If they can get to 2,000/week shortly, that's quite impressive progress. Here's hoping it's sustainable into Q2. Perhaps we could even see 3,000+ by the end of April, which would be awesome at this point.

I stand by my previous comment, key part in regard to your comment is point 2),

good points to bear in mind, but,

1) would think at this point they are operating 7 days a week... don't know what norm is for sure, but 6 sounds right.

2) read the quotes from Tesla management to employees... they are clearly going to aggressively make the case next week that Tesla has proved the "haters" wrong. I don't expect any "haters" to quit spinning, or much of the media... but, as of early next week, 95+% chance Tesla will be making a strong case that the bear narratives are false. That's a big change from what we've had since early November announcement of GF bottleneck, from defensive to confident claims of success.

 

[Tslynk67]

I'm expecting an intense whack the mole to keep us below that level.

Disappointment is the gap between expectation and reality

 

[Waiting4M3]

I'm expecting an intense whack the mole to keep us below that level.

$266 now. HE has risen! Usually it happens on Easter but I guess since Easter is not a trading day....

 

[SteveG3]

I don't know, I read it as bad news tbh. This is another "burst rate"/"extrapolated" kind of thing if you have to pull people from other lines and make them work extra hard. That would also mean that assembly line has a bottleneck, not only the battery line in GF. I'd rather have them solid 1.5-2k without effort than 2.5k pushing hard.

it seems this is only for one day. what's more, it could be some trickery on Tesla's part, but, it sounds like an optional invite of workers to go on the 3 line that day... not exactly pulled. perhaps the trickery is that given the number of workers on the S/X line, Tesla is confident to have at least what they want- but, again, apparently only a one day event.

 

[bdy0627]

And what a coincidence that good news starts to flow just as all the MM's have managed to place TSLA in the 250 range right on the last day of Q1. Considering that TSLA opened the year at 320 and a move towards 500 after reaching a production rate of 5,000 per week is not unlikely before the end of the year with a subsequent pullback to the 425 range..........that would give every long that holds for the year the BFPT average move of about 33% for the year, and now of course it would give all the MM's about twice that + anything they can make in between. Timing and numbers are a little too coincidental in this move. The Quarterly window dressings of this stock have always been transparently supported by CNBC, WSJ, GS, and others.

What should be more interesting for me is the fibonacci retracement possibilities to the 425-500 range. Following some insightful posts by @austinEV and @Jonathan Hewitt, several of us posted on this many months ago and saw that a move to around 600 was possible to subsequently fall back into the same 425-500 range at the end of the retracement. I need to dig up that homework and look at it again because this is all starting to look a little like deja vu again (did I just say that?), even down to the transition from negative to positive news on the last day of a month and quarter. But for the fibonacci calculations the most important data point is determining the 'break out' price. Do we still use the 305 resistance point for that?

And speaking of the 305 resistance point, I owe @Mike Smith an apology - he called the move under that price and I thought it would hold. Sorry about that Mike. I hope my reasoning for that - the concern of MM's regarding the ability for long term investors to reduce the float and thus their ability to manipulate it still holds true.

Wish I had some dry powder already in the account. But this game is rigged all the way down to the delays that the trading houses have instituted for us to move money into the accounts, for checks to clear and settle, and for other trades to settle. These moves can only be played by people watching closely with money already on the sidelines.....and perhaps even tipped off. If I wired money to trade today I might get to use it to play when it clears by the end of next week when the production numbers are already released after a long weekend with banks shut down. Buy. Hold. Watch. Learn. Buy more to hold with improved timing when possible.

Really interesting thoughts. Thanks. Over several years of following this stock closely, I am learning just how much TSLA follows these Fibonacci retracements. I need to learn how to plot them.

 

[X Yes?]

The only car in the universe is a Tesla. This market is all manipulated...the big Wall Street drove this stock price down, so they can get in and ride it out strategically right after Elon got his compensation approved. I'm super long all along, and not worried about any of this nonsense. Even if we fail 2500/week, we will ultimately succeed and this guy has proven it. There is no other company that is doing real shitt and he turned out around this ole' gas guzzling car industry to make others adopt EV!

If Tesla's heroic 300 car/day happens, that theoretically put them at 2100/ mo. Do you think missing the projection will stave off another Moody's downgrade?

 

[Tslynk67]

OK, last post, promise: CNBC - Buying Tesla after big stock market losses has paid off in the past

 

[bdy0627]

I've purchased far far too much already

Me too. I bought more today with how the stock was acting even though I added some yesterday around the same level, but I'm way over allocated to TSLA now. It will soon be time to figure out my exit plans. That's a lot more enjoyable but challenging.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

If Tesla's heroic 300 car week

Reading comprehension error.

 

[SteveG3]

If Tesla's heroic 300 car week happens, that theoretically put them at 1200/ mo. Do you think missing the projection by over 50% will stave off another Moody's downgrade?

X Yes?

we are talking per day not per week

X Yes? there are a tremendous number of people in the media, online in comments section, etc., screaming at the top of their lungs, at 100 mph, a bunch of false narratives. you can keep them from clouding your vision, but, it requires thinking for yourself... you have it in you to do it! all the best