TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

Some interesting news items:

German consumer group sues VW

VZBV, which represents 41 German consumer groups, accused the carmaker of "deliberately and unethically causing damage" to two million drivers.

So this is a class-action for the recovery of depreciation of cars due to the scandals, nothing do do with emissions per-se.

Ex-Goldman bankers face 1MDB charges

 

[ZenMan]

340 is the new 300 Just like 350 will soon be the new 340...ect..ect..ect

From Option Sniper: "$tsla chart still BEST among all names on my watch list. very very nice round bottom on 30min chart formed. remember key resistance above - 348 351 355 364 371"

 

[EVNow]

Do any of you know when is the MMA scheduled for today ?

 

[Fact Checking]

The bears seem to realize that their thesis is broken. In the past they added to their short positions when the SP went up and they started unwinding on the way down. It looks like the opposite is happening now.

Yes - but note that even so short interest is only down from the recent peak of ~35 million shares to 32 million shares. I.e. only 10% of the shorts have covered and TSLA short interest is still at a very high 25% of the float.

There's potentially still a lot of pain for shorts down the road (well, up the road, technically).

 

[tinm]

GM’s Mary Barra live (video) at NYT Dealbook confernce

The New York Times @nytimes

 

[Johan]

The bears seem to realize that their thesis is broken. In the past they added to their short positions when the SP went up and they started unwinding on the way down. It looks like the opposite is happening now.

So this could be "the squeeze" with a slow take off scenario...

 

[Chickenlittle]

Yes - but note that even so short interest is only down from the recent peak of ~35 million shares to 32 million shares. I.e. only 10% of the shorts have covered and TSLA short interest is still at a very high 25% of the float.

There's potentially still a lot of pain for shorts down the road (well, up the road, technically).

Where are you getting the short interest out since nasdaq won’t report it for about 10 days and your comparing it to previously reported nasdaq value?

 

[ZenMan]

Covering still ongoing ... Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter

So a net 3.3 million shares covered, and the stock price moved $80. I like the extrapolation: For every 1 million shares covered = $24 rise in stock price. So where's @TrendTrader007, I'm calling a $720 stock price by this time next year.

 

[Don TLR]

GM’s Mary Barra live (video) at NYT Dealbook confernce

The New York Times @nytimes

He put her on the spot,, tuned in just in time..

 

[Unpilot]

So a net 3.3 million shares covered, and the stock price moved $80. I like the extrapolation: For every 1 million shares covered = $24 rise in stock price. So where's @TrendTrader007, I'm calling a $720 stock price by this time next year.

I have a side bet with some folks for this exact scenario. My bet is a doubling of SP in one year.

 

[tinm]

Sorkin should gave asked her why is GM supporting blocking Tesla from selling and servicing in multiple US states? Is she leading that effort?

But Sorkin probably is unaware if GM’s shenanigans.

 

[ggr]

Some people seem to have the misconception that Starlink routes traffic satellite-to-satellite. While the system is designed to be capable of doing this, this isn't the primary way in which it transmits data. Satellite-to-satellite transmissions of user data are used only to prevent dropouts (from various causes).

Your secret information conflicts with my secret information.

 

[Fact Checking]

Where are you getting the short interest out since nasdaq won’t report it for about 10 days and your comparing it to previously reported nasdaq value?

Ihor Dusaniwsky's firm has a proprietary algorithm that provides daily updates, and he sometimes posts TSLA short interest charts on his Twitter account:

Ihor Dusaniwsky (@ihors3) | Twitter
​

Note that his charts are estimates - the NASDAQ reported figure is the most reliable data source, but only updated once every 2 weeks, and even then with a significant delay - to the delight of many shorts who prefer to hide in the shadows.

 

[Fact Checking]

Your secret information conflicts with my secret information.

Yeah, basically I find it highly unlikely that Tesla won't use their satellite to satellite laser links to provide the 'internal backbone' of their Starlink constellation. They are going to have a dense network of ground stations as well to down-link to, but whenever they can they'll try to route traffic over the satellites, in my opinion. That's the whole point of the whole constellation.

So I disagree with @KarenRei there.

 

[ZenMan]

I have a side bet with some folks for this exact scenario. My bet is a doubling of SP in one year.

I didn't say I was joking. I went all in on Jan 20 500's and 600's this week. Looking to retire after the stock hits $720.

 

[ggr]

So a net 3.3 million shares covered

That is only about 5% of Peak Short!

 

[KarenRei]

Your secret information conflicts with my secret information.

Heh, I'll go ahead and source mine

150kW: based on the max current capability in the Model 3 wiring as reported by Ingineerix
180kW: based on the maximum current capability reported by the vehicle diagnostics
Liquid cooling: based on the german Tesla technician report a couple months back

Both kW ratings are within the range of possibilities indicated by Tesla during the last time that they discussed it, where they dismissed going anywhere near 350kW in the short term, but promised an incremental improvement.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Yes - but note that even so short interest is only down from the recent peak of ~35 million shares to 32 million shares. I.e. only 10% of the shorts have covered and TSLA short interest is still at a very high 25% of the float.

There's potentially still a lot of pain for shorts down the road (well, up the road, technically).

There's the number of shares, and then there's the prices. Is the price moving much?

 

[Tslynk67]

Again, pretty low volume, like yesterday, but upward movement really strong.

Reacting to the index, but not following the trends...

 

[AndyH]

Covering still ongoing ... Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter

$10.85bn divided by 32.16mn shares gives an average shorted sp of 337. Is that right? That's a lot higher than I thought. To really set of a squeeze the sp needs to rise a lot.