TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[defc0n]

The people who use trucks SERIOUSLY, to actually get work done, are all for whatever truck requires the least maintenance and has the best value. They will move right to electric no problem if it's a more compelling product. I know this because I used to do telesales work where many of my clients were semi drivers. I'd often ask them how they felt about Tesla semi. NONE of them seemed to have any reflexive hate for it, most were cautiously interested. Some wondered if it would work in the cold, specifically.

As for the yeehaw types, they'll come around toward electric pickups when they notice that the electric semis are ubiquitous, and when they see their more forward thinking friends jump to the guaranteed-to-be-better electric pickups. They're not hopeless cases. Show them a product that's undeniably better, and they will switch up.

Something tells me it will be a tougher sell to yeehaws than you think.

 

[Fact Checking]

While quite possibly true, the fact that MBS confirms something does not necessarily imply that it is actually true.

Their average purchase price was probably well north of $300, and while you might not trust MBS's word, you might trust his basic interest in not selling a fresh investment at a loss. His basic disagreement with Tesla seemed to be that MBS wanted to own even more of Tesla - and not getting that wish granted doesn't translate into "they want to sell".

Also, even "just" ~5% of Tesla is not a bad place to be, and it's a powerful political statement as well that they are not reliant on oil alone ...

So I'd expect them to keep it, at least until their other investments in EV startups start seriously threatening Tesla, which will probably take years.

 

[EVNow]

Apparently most of them were former Microsoft managers hired for the Seattle office to do Starlink.

Why Elon thought it a good idea to hire managers of the development team of a lazy monopolist who for decades used force and market power arrogantly rather than finesse and hard work to enter new markets is beyond me, but by now he has probably learned the lesson that he should probably hire ... hungrier developers to drive ambitious technologies like Starlink.

As someone who worked in Microsoft for a long time, couple of corrections.
- Were they really MS folks ? The expertise seems to mainly align with Boeing, rather than Microsoft.
- Most developers are newer and hard working. Remember the easy victories for Microsoft disappeared some 20 years back. The current set only know long, very long hours. Even in the old days, Bill Gates wasn't known as an easy executive to work for either. He pushed people very hard (that was before my time, though).
- Senior managers are a different breed - esp. the old guard. They spend most of the time politicking & managing up.
- Almost all software people in Seattle have some link to Microsoft. Whether they now work in Amazon, Google or elsewhere.

 

[Fact Checking]

Something tells me it will be a tougher sell to yeehaws than you think.

"Rolling coal" on a Prius is really more of a "I won't give up this much power which I utilize, for your green powerless nonsense" political statement, not a rejection of nature itself. Rural Americans are in many ways much closer to nature than most of the urban population. Being able to drive around and being able to kill animals is seen as a necessity they cannot compromise on.

So my expectation is that their partly valid point of rolling coal is going to change abruptly once the Tesla Pickup Truck's amazing capabilities of power are shown off. In 20 years I expect the Republican Party to be the greenest of all, because being close to nature is the True America.

Also, Elon, please bundle a Starlink subscription and proper radio channels with fully optioned Tesla Pickup Trucks, to move rural Americans (or at least their kids) away from the echo chamber of AM/FM Radio ...

 

[Buddyroe]

It's the weekend so OT...

Just saw a Ford commercial during the Alabama LSU game.....they've already built the future!!!

LMAO!!!!

EDIT: Ford: "THE FUTURE IS BUILT"

When will these idiots learn that cool bravado commercials will not save them?

 

[Fact Checking]

As someone who worked in Microsoft for a long time, couple of corrections.
- Were they really MS folks ? The expertise seems to mainly align with Boeing, rather than Microsoft.

Yeah, so I relied on this Reuters article - for whatever it is worth:

Musk shakes up SpaceX in race to make satellite launch window: sources | Reuters

"Culture was also a challenge for recent hires, a second source said. A number of the managers had been hired from nearby technology giant Microsoft, where workers were more accustomed to longer development schedules than Musk’s famously short deadlines."​

I absolutely intended to limit my criticism to senior mid- and high- level management - developers are hard working in almost every successful high-tech company, as you yourself pointed it out:

- Most developers are newer and hard working. Remember the easy victories for Microsoft disappeared some 20 years back. The current set only know long, very long hours. Even in the old days, Bill Gates wasn't known as an easy executive to work for either. He pushed people very hard (that was before my time, though).

Yeah, also the 10% annual hire/fire rate at Microsoft is setting a pretty high pace as well AFAIK.

Also, there's a lot of things to like about what Microsoft has done in the last 5 years: them adopting the Git open-source version control software to manage their Windows repository internally, Microsoft developers contributing to the Git project and Microsoft acquiring GitHub were all pretty symbolic moves as well.

 

[hacer]

Yes. I carry my stock trading neural network with me at all times. Instead of 18 it has about 10^11 neurons, kept in relative safety inside my cranium.

Hopefully it also gets better, more robust inputs than the network shown.

 

[Unpilot]

"Rolling coal" on a Prius is really more of a "I won't give up this much power which I utilize, for your green powerless nonsense" political statement, not a rejection of nature itself. Rural Americans are in many ways much closer to nature than most of the urban population. Being able to drive around and being able to kill animals is seen as a necessity they cannot compromise on.

So my expectation is that their partly valid point of rolling coal is going to change abruptly once the Tesla Pickup Truck's amazing capabilities of power are shown off. In 20 years I expect the Republican Party to be the greenest of all, because being close to nature is the True America.

Also, Elon, please bundle a Starlink subscription and proper radio channels with fully optioned Tesla Pickup Trucks, to move rural Americans (or at least their kids) away from the echo chamber of AM/FM Radio ...

You my friend have a LOT more faith in the Republican party than I do. Maybe your thinking of the pre-trump party.
IMHO it will take many years to rid the grand old party of the trump stink. 20 years might not be enough.

 

[AZRI11]

My guess is Musk doesn’t want to raise any more equity and he knows he won’t have enough capital to ramp up semi, model Y, and a large volume of pickup trucks all in the near future at roughly the same time. Thus his current truck will be some expensive niche toy.

A bit of a shame since the number 1 mission is to move the world to electric transport and high volume pickup manufacturing is an important part to make that happen. Multiple concurrent large ramps are likely deemed too risky to the company.

I personally worry a lot of the American populace that drive trucks are diehard petrol or diesel fans that wouldn’t even give an electric model a chance right now. Wonder if Ford and others think the same.

Musk is right. Same as cars, go for the highest margin in the category. Many people are ditching Mercedes and BMW for F-150. Get them to buy Tesla BAMF pickup. Start at 60k and go up to 100k. They could sell 150-200k domestically. Ford and GM would be crying a river if musk pulls this off.

 

[Lucky_Man]

The interesting point is that the TBMs are actually the *strong* part of the industry. The bulldozers and backhoes (like the carts for removing spoil and bringing in reinforcement pieces) have had even *less* in the way of improvement. Which is why it can take as long to dig the hole for the TBM "launch point" as it does to drill the entire TBM-drilled tunnel, in some cases.

I've been wondering when Musk will notice this and revolutionize the bulldozer/backhoe hole-digging business. Extreme low-hanging fruit, IMO.

My neighbors hire me to mow their meadows 2-3x a year, then push snow in winter as necessary. I'd **really** love a Tesla tractor with a FEL & 3-point hitch!

 

[skitown]

View attachment 349592

Something tells me it will be a tougher sell to yeehaws than you think.

That’s why this Tesla Truck will likely prove to be tougher on every dimension. It will be the halo equivalent of the Next Gen Roadster even if it’s not for everyone. Once we see YouTube videos of it dragging these coal rollers backwards in a tug, normal trucks will lose all their coolness to these guys. Everyone will know what it is and will want their next truck to be electric. Rinse and repeat.

Edit: Elon is a big gamer. I personally am betting the styling will be more military/Halo ish than what people think.

 

[SpeedGoat]

I honestly think the truck should be designed as a van (better aerodynamics), and the pickup should be a body variant with the top of the van gone.

El Camino:

Baja Outback:

Avalanche:
https://di-uploads-pod1.dealerinspire.com/depaulachevy/uploads/2015/07/Chevy-Avalanche-white1.jpg[/url]

I am skeptical of this approach.

 

[tinm]

Reveal at it again with Tesla factory:

Working Through the Pain at Tesla

 

[Singer3000]

Pickup and Market Action...

Sounds like v1 is a $10bn / yr revenue stream and not a $30-50bn like some thought.

But... maybe that also means it’ll be out much sooner than expected and be produced alongside the Semi programme. So hypothetically first deliveries in q1 2020?

And then the “mass market” version in around 2022-2023 from a dedicated plant. If so, sounds alright to me.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

CNBC would have us believe the downturn in ICE luxury sedans is due to consumers shifting to high end pickups. Lol...god forbid they admit Tesla is eating their lunch.

Luxury car owners trade up for American pickups as Ford, GM and Dodge trucks dominate market

 

[humbaba]

View attachment 349592

Something tells me it will be a tougher sell to yeehaws than you think.

And Ford (or whoever survives to do so, but probably Ford) will continue selling trucks to these angry white men. But the cost of their hate-the-world mentality will rise. Lowered production runs will increase the per-truck cost. As gas stations close it will not only require longer drives to refuel, but cost more to do so as well.

These are the guys who will have to stop going to any macho events to avoid the utter embarrassment of having their puny gasoline rig dragged through the mud by an entry level EV truck. This will make them angier and some will resort to their "second amendment rights" to emphasize their statements.

But between social ostracizing and jail time for criminal acts they will become an endangered species that one hears about but seldom sees.

You are absolutely correct that some of these guys will be... difficult. But they will also become quite irrelevant, other than the occasional headline.

 

[humbaba]

As someone who worked in Microsoft for a long time, couple of corrections.
- Were they really MS folks ? The expertise seems to mainly align with Boeing, rather than Microsoft.
- Most developers are newer and hard working. Remember the easy victories for Microsoft disappeared some 20 years back. The current set only know long, very long hours. Even in the old days, Bill Gates wasn't known as an easy executive to work for either. He pushed people very hard (that was before my time, though).
- Senior managers are a different breed - esp. the old guard. They spend most of the time politicking & managing up.
- Almost all software people in Seattle have some link to Microsoft. Whether they now work in Amazon, Google or elsewhere.

My understanding is that the fired executives were ex-Microsoft managers. Which makes sense -- hiring developers as managers generally doesn't. I'll go with your assessment that they were more about politicking and managing up rather than delivering. Or, if they do deliver it is something along the lines of Vista (IIRC the exec responsible for that got a bonus for making a shipping date, which happily coincided with his jumping ship to Amazon so he didn't even have to take any heat for the disaster of shipping before it was ready).

Yep, the only question is why they got hired in the first place. Probably connected and didn't realize they would have to perform when the worked for SpaceX.

 

[dhrivnak]

El Camino:

Baja Outback:

Avalanche:
https://di-uploads-pod1.dealerinspire.com/depaulachevy/uploads/2015/07/Chevy-Avalanche-white1.jpg[/URL]

I am skeptical of this approach.

I had an Avalanche and I LOVED the flexibility. Now some 14 years later my sone uses it as a daily drive. It would seat 6 with full luggage in the dry or carry 40 sheets of plywood or 2 cubic yards of mulch. It was a great truck.

 

[neroden]

El Camino:

Baja Outback:

Avalanche:
https://di-uploads-pod1.dealerinspire.com/depaulachevy/uploads/2015/07/Chevy-Avalanche-white1.jpg[/URL]

I am skeptical of this approach.

Those don't look nearly tall enough to be vans. The Euro examples look closer to what I was thinking of.

 

[Beltsbear]

Good idea! Let's do Apple next. The Intrinsic value of AAPL is $158 / share or 26% below the current share price of $207. Additionally, 'Apple is poor value based on expected growth next year'.

View attachment 349528

More reasons why money is steadily moving from Big Cap tech stocks to TSLA in support of its growth thesis. Onward!

Cheers!

Actually Apple is right in line at the current price. Your chart completely ignores their pile of cash that most other companies valued in a similar fashion do not have. Take that valuation you posted, add cash per share and it comes close to the current share price. Apple is an unusual company in this manner.