TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Unpilot]

Since the market is closed I can say this.

You gals/guys need to step up your game. I can keep up with this thread in half the time it used to take me.

Seems like the post count is a little lower than usual.

 

[EVNow]

Here is the IV vs HV as of today. HV is at a very high of 90% - but IV is at 50%. That's a big difference. This has made calls not as good as what they could have been given the raise in SP. After the earnings call usually the IV drops - but seems to have dropped prematurely as the effect of earnings is still playing out.

 

[RobStark]

What have I done

 

[AZRI11]

I have a sad history of instigating. Foot in mouth disease

 

[Carl Raymond]

This afternoon, I was walking across a parking lot and was reminded of one reason I hate ICEs. It's started getting colder and people leave there engines idling to keep their cabins warm. Also some people don't maintain their vehicles and they spew out incompletely burned hydrocarbons and smoke from oil getting past worn rings.
You don't even have to believe in global climate change to see the need for elimination of the ICE.

You can waste a lot of time simply by using the words "climate change". Those words are like a trigger that auto-challenge the belief system of many people. I like to keep things incontrovertible. I refer to the Keeling Curve, which they can verify is fact in Wikipedia. And I refer to the fact that CO2 is a greenhouse gas, and that more CO2 enhances that greenhouse effect, fact. I don't push it any further.

If they have any cognitive ability at all, they will work out for themselves that burning fossil fuels, exhausting CO2, is like wrapping the earth in a thicker blanket.

 

[SpaceCash]

You can waste a lot of time simply by using the words "climate change". Those words are like a trigger that auto-challenge the belief system of many people. I like to keep things incontrovertible. I refer to the Keeling Curve, which they can verify is fact in Wikipedia. And I refer to the fact that CO2 is a greenhouse gas, fact, and that more CO2 enhances that greenhouse effect, fact. I don't push it any further.

If they have any cognitive ability at all, they will work out for themselves that burning fossil fuels, exhausting CO2, is like wrapping the earth in a thicker blanket.

Or you can even just SIMPLY point out that the isht coming out the back of buses, trucks, every ICE vehicle smells bad, and has gotta be bad for their aspirational Beverly Hills skin. Honestly, since test driving the S, I really do notice this a lot more and it irks me now like it never did before. Exhaust is just nasty

 

[ZachF]

California Moves to Replace Gas Plants With Batteries From Tesla:
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

From article:
"The four battery projects include a 183-megawatt facility south of San Jose, California, that will be designed and built by Tesla and owned by PG&E. Vistra Energy Corp. is planning a 300-megawatt installation; Hummingbird Energy Storage LLC is developing a 75-megawatt project; and Micronoc Inc. plans to install 10 megawatts of capacity at customer locations."


S H E B U L L I S H A F

Just the beginning.

Peaker plants will be on the endangered species list two years from now.

 

[Causalien]

I had no idea either, and had to Google it:
"ASMR, which stands for autonomous sensory meridian response, is still a relatively new creation. It describes a feeling of euphoric tingling and relaxation that can come over someone when he or she watches certain videos or hears certain sounds."
"Autonomous sensory meridian response (ASMR) is an experience characterized by a static-like or tingling sensation on the skin that typically begins on the scalp and moves down the back of the neck and upper spine. It has been compared with auditory-tactile synesthesia and may overlap with frisson."
Too weird for me.

I think it became a perversion when ppl slapped a woman in the video and started making it sexual.

You can get the same ASMR by listening to an audio of a barber cutting your (camera's) hair.

 

[sundaymorning]

Since the market is closed I can say this.

You gals/guys need to step up your game. I can keep up with this thread in half the time it used to take me.

Seems like the post count is a little lower than usual.

Strange how all the bears pumping their chest suddenly disappeared overnight, it’s almost like they never believed in their own thesis. Longs on the other hand stuck around through the thick and thin.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Or you can even just SIMPLY point out that the isht coming out the back of buses, trucks, every ICE vehicle smells bad, and has gotta be bad for their aspirational Beverly Hills skin. Honestly, since test driving the S, I really do notice this a lot more and it irks me now like it never did before. Exhaust is just nasty

There exist people who smoke cigarettes. Your approach will mostly work.

 

[SpaceCash]

Actual footage of a TSLA bear checking out his portfolio:

 

[EVNow]

Now that the "stealing elections" rhetoric is getting heated - and we have the possibility of a long recount battle in Florida (and Arizona ?) - wondering whether that will make the market somewhat nervous.

 

[30seconds]

Interesting to see where the general auto industry is heading.

Seriously, The economics are going to change fast. Germans are going to take huge hits on the 3-series level sedans and Q5 level SUVs from Teslas in the $50-60k range and the Japanese are going to take hits on the Camrys and Accords with $35-40k Teslas.

Here are my predictions for 2023.

US: Ford - pickups, GM - bailout
Japan: Toyota, Nissan - head in sand waiting for bailout; Mazada - bankruptcy; Subaru - takeout
Germany: BMW - bankruptcy / takeout; Mercedes - maybe can make it + bailout; VW - maybe can make it + bailout
Italy: Fiat - bankruptcy

 

[EVNow]

Here are my predictions for 2023.

US: Ford - pickups, GM - bailout
Japan: Toyota, Nissan - head in sand waiting for bailout; Mazada - bankruptcy; Subaru - takeout
Germany: BMW - bankruptcy / takeout; Mercedes - maybe can make it + bailout; VW - maybe can make it + bailout
Italy: Fiat - bankruptcy

You forgot Honda.

BTW, all bankruptcies and the bailouts will happen, including Ford. Not because of Tesla, but because of the next recession.

 

[Richard007]

So exciting that we broke $350 today. I think we will plot ahead to $400 by the end of the year and when the Q3 numbers are announced the stock will takeoff like a space X rocket ship

 

[SpaceCash]

So exciting that we broke $350 today. I think we will plot ahead to $400 by the end of the year and when the Q3 numbers are announced the stock will takeoff like a space X rocket ship

You might be right.
But I believe the takeoff may happen before that. Shorts DON'T HAVE a thesis anymore. I think that once the magic number is reached, all the boiling frogs are gonna die at once, and I don't think they even have til the end of the year.

That said, I remain positioned in Feb and Aug 2019 calls only except for one lotto call that expires tomorrow. So your timeline works just fine for me

 

[Unpilot]

You might be right.
But I believe the takeoff may happen before that. Shorts DON'T HAVE a thesis anymore. I think that once the magic number is reached, all the boiling frogs are gonna die at once, and I don't think they even have til the end of the year.

That said, I remain positioned in Feb and Aug 2019 calls only except for one lotto call that expires tomorrow. So your timeline works just fine for me

Hey I have a lotto call that expires tomorrow as well!
Here's to a healthy rise tomorrow.

 

[pz1975]

I may have sold you those lottos - I have some sold covered OTM calls expiring tomorrow (and some uncovered OTM puts). All nicely green as I sold them at local peaks and troughs during the week. This really is the only way to make money on weekly options unless you get really lucky.

 

[dailo]

Former Tesla Employee Charged In Embezzlement Scheme At Tesla

 

[ZachF]

Now that the "stealing elections" rhetoric is getting heated - and we have the possibility of a long recount battle in Florida (and Arizona ?) - wondering whether that will make the market somewhat nervous.

At this point the market should just be pricing in Florida not being able to make up it's mind....