TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[HG Wells]

Also note NASDAQ is down 120 points. Tesla down 1.5
If NASDAQ was flat we would be up 6,7 or 8

EDIT: Maxpain 340

EDIT EDIT: GREEN

 

[Intl Professor]

Agreed, but as a D, getting a bill to the floor will not be easy

I don't think Heller's bill more likely. But then I'm prejudiced against McConnell.

 

[neroden]

While I agree with your sentiment I think it is important to not rely on technological solutions -- what happens when AP doesn't respond because because the kid running out was below the view line?

We should have sensors which can spot that low. I mean, that's trivial. I think the ultrasonic sensors already do, and we're talking low speeds here (so short distances), right?

While you can't protect from everything I think it is important to have layers of defense (my security background may be showing).

Noise pollution creates its own problems, and lots of them. If it were harmless, that would be different, but it's *not* harmless. It prevents people, including blind people, from hearing *other* things they need or want to hear. It disturbs people's sleep. Etc.

 

[AndyH]

I looked a little at VWs new Neo. It will be a very competitive car. Perhaps a too competitive.

• 21000$ price.
• 200k yearly production.
• Size as a Golf but with Passat-size interior thanks to longer wheelbase.
• 48kwh or 62kwh battery.
• 1-100km/h in 8 seconds.

VW do intend to build a battery cell factory. The VW brand currently sells 6 million cars per year. Almost all of that is internal combustion cars. Introducing a Golf-sized car with Passat-size interior at 21000$ almost seems irresponsible. Price-wise that would be competitive with the Polo if you include the running costs. VW Polo, Golf and Passat sales would plummet immediately. The only way they can accomplish this without failing is to aim for much higher production than 200k. Battery costs will probably be too high at 200k to make any profit and if sales of non-EVs start slipping at the same time...

 

[neroden]

And the usual bounce off the MMD. This is *so* predictable.

 

[HG Wells]

I looked a little at VWs new Neo. It will be a very competitive car. Perhaps a too competitive.

• 21000$ price.
• 200k yearly production.
• Size as a Golf but with Passat-size interior thanks to longer wheelbase.
• 48kwh or 62kwh battery.
• 1-100km/h in 8 seconds.

VW do intend to build a battery cell factory. The VW brand currently sells 6 million cars per year. Almost all of that is internal combustion cars. Introducing a Golf-sized car with Passat-size interior at 21000$ almost seems irresponsible. Price-wise that would be competitive with the Polo if you include the running costs. VW Polo, Golf and Passat sales would plummet immediately. The only way they can accomplish this without failing is to aim for much higher production than 200k. Battery costs will probably be too high at 200k to make any profit and if sales of non-EVs start slipping at the same time...

There are rumors that you rent the battery.

 

[Intl Professor]

Bravo! Blessedly few posts. Must be even longs in hibernation until February.

 

[mongo]

I believe that any car which has sensors and is programmed to *refuse to run into pedestrians* -- and this is part of Autopilot which we can do right now -- should be exempt from the noisemaker laws.

Because it's much better to have the cars just not run into people. Having them make noise while running over people isn't really that helpful, is it?

tl;dr; people can always find your bumper (deer doubly so)

Spoiler: Non MA crash avoidance physics

If a person can suddenly move laterally at 5MPH (call it 7 ft/sec) and a road lane is 10 feet wide, and a car is 6 feet wide, there is 4 foot buffer from sidewalk to impact zone. Then there is only a 4/7 = 0.6 second reaction time. So the car speed must be such that it can stop in 0.6 seconds whenever a person is near the edge of the road. At 30 mph (44 ft/sec), 0.6 seconds is 26.4 ft and a deceleration rate of 44 ft/sec^2 or 1.4 G, normal non track tires are good for <1G.. So if there is person 27 feet in front and 4 foot to the side of a car going 30 MPH, and they step into the road, the car cannot stop in time.

not directed at you:
In general: One car is audible, an EV in the city with background noise is much less so... Also, how to tell you are blocking a non-moving car (other than getting honked at)?

Green!

 

[Earlian]

Come on stop this VW stuff.

Since its not on the market, its irrelevant!

To many question marks.

Do someone really believe, they can deliver a 21000$ car with high margin and 500k per year?

Why do we have to wade through every "competition announcement" ?

It is irrelevant to TSLA in the short AND in the long term.

------------------------------------

TSLA: 353,43 $

 

[LoveTSLA]

No one hope we close green today? Who knows until 3:59:99pm. Thinking of the long term, why I care that anyway.

This what I am talking about....

 

[Chop110]

Doth mine eyes deceiveth me? Green?!!

 

[Fobble]

Doth mine eyes deceiveth me? Green?!!

I am still eying around $360 by market close today. TSLA is very strong compared to the market.

 

[defc0n]

And I bought in again...

 

[Analyst007]

"20 SMA just crossed above 200 MA"

You should aim to buy when the shorter MA (i.e. 50-MA) crosses over the longer MA (i.e. 200-MA) from bottom-up, and sell when the shorter MA crosse over the longer MA from top-down. The crossover indicates that the trend has changed and switched direction.

 

[HG Wells]

I have been moving my Jan 19 calls to Jan 20.
I am worried and elated that Muller might hand down some high level indictments.
Wondering how it would affect the markets. 0 % 10 % 20 % drop ?

If Muller is removed 30 % drop ?

 

[humbaba]

We should have sensors which can spot that low. I mean, that's trivial. I think the ultrasonic sensors already do, and we're talking low speeds here (so short distances), right?


Noise pollution creates its own problems, and lots of them. If it were harmless, that would be different, but it's *not* harmless. It prevents people, including blind people, from hearing *other* things they need or want to hear. It disturbs people's sleep. Etc.

You make good points. I'm not advocating for any particular solution, though I can see how what I wrote could give that impression. What I'm saying is that life safety is important and should not rely on a single system. That means not relying solely on noise makers, not relying solely on drivers, not relying solely on anything.

That is separate from what should be component. You make some fair arguments as to why noise makers are not that good. But, bottom line, if there is legislation requiring them I think for Tesla it would be simple to bring their cars into compliance.

 

[Pezpunk]

installing noise makers in electric cars is the single stupidest idea humanity has ever conceived.

 

[replicant]

My prediction is that the next recession will happen when *everyone* has solar panels. So, suddenly, there will be a crash in demand for solar panels (because everyone already has them), and there will be layoffs at solar panel installers, and the resulting unemployment will cause the recesion.

This will be several years in the future. But this is a classic 19th century depression dynamic, IMO...

So you expect the oil-fed authoritarian countries not to lead us to a big war when they start entering into their final recession, bringing most economies and democraties to their knees?

For these regimes, the strategy regarding climate change and peak oil is the same: après moi le déluge

 

[humbaba]

Doth mine eyes deceiveth me? Green?!!

Although $TSLA appears by the graph to be moving independently of the macro, it seems every time I check it is a bit less than 2% above NASDAQ (though ATM the gap is closing).

Still hoping for a nice climb today, but short term drops (especially when macro driven) don't really bother me.

 

[replicant]

I looked a little at VWs new Neo. It will be a very competitive car. Perhaps a too competitive.

• 21000$ price.
• 200k yearly production.
• Size as a Golf but with Passat-size interior thanks to longer wheelbase.
• 48kwh or 62kwh battery.
• 1-100km/h in 8 seconds.

VW do intend to build a battery cell factory. The VW brand currently sells 6 million cars per year. Almost all of that is internal combustion cars. Introducing a Golf-sized car with Passat-size interior at 21000$ almost seems irresponsible. Price-wise that would be competitive with the Polo if you include the running costs. VW Polo, Golf and Passat sales would plummet immediately. The only way they can accomplish this without failing is to aim for much higher production than 200k. Battery costs will probably be too high at 200k to make any profit and if sales of non-EVs start slipping at the same time...

So, same as Tesla with the $35K Model 3? Start with a high priced version and slowly lower the price as production increase. The only difference is that Tesla was constrained by being unable to ramp up quickly while VW will be constrained by the sales of ICE cars. But in the end, I don't see much of a difference for the manufacturers and their customers.