TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[EVNow]

Only 3,153,758 shares of TSLA traded as of 12:32 pm EST.

Crickets...

Question to experienced investors.

Is it better to wait for normal trading to resume next week - or better to roll the calls this week ? My idea was to wait for 2 or 3 days of gains before selling the calls. Buy stock/leaps the next couple of days on dips.

 

[X Fan]

Only 3,153,758 shares of TSLA traded as of 12:32 pm EST.

Crickets...

Everybody’s picking up their turkeys at Fresh Market. Big line at ours today.

 

[elasalle]

Question to experienced investors.

Is it better to wait for normal trading to resume next week - or better to roll the calls this week ? My idea was to wait for 2 or 3 days of gains before selling the calls. Buy stock/leaps the next couple of days on dips.

If Jan calls, better to Roll. Now like 60 days to option expiry. I rolled with 66 days left.
Don't wanna get theta decay for holiday/weekend days .. & no big news to lift stock drastically for next few days ... ~ cheers

 

[Starno]

That's BS. Ask yourself how important Musk is to Tesla's future vs Ghosn to Renault's.
FYI, Renault has been around since 1898.

Without Carlos Ghosn, Renault would have ended up like PSA(Peugeot), a shadow of itself.

He has been absolutely instrumental to the success of the company;

 

[Lessmog]

Without Carlos Ghosn, Renault would have ended up like PSA(Peugeot), a shadow of itself.

He has been absolutely instrumental to the success of the company;

PSA, isn't that Citrön? Agile, quick to turn around. Or not so quick, but when he does, eh.

 

[EVNow]

Without Carlos Ghosn, Renault would have ended up like PSA(Peugeot), a shadow of itself.

He has been absolutely instrumental to the success of the company;

True - but given somewhat of a muted reaction - and the fact that French government has not said anything about Ghosn - which you would expect if the allegations had no basis - my theory is that Ghosn stayed a year too long. Should have left last year when the going was good

 

[EVNow]

If Jan calls, better to Roll. Now like 60 days to option expiry. I rolled with 66 days left.
Don't wanna get theta decay for holiday/weekend days .. & no big news to lift stock drastically for next few days ... ~ cheers

In hindsight I should have rolled on 11/2. The calls haven't gone up much since then. But I'd have a substantially lower gain to rollover if I roll on a low day like today rather than when the SP is around 250 - they are down 20% today compared to yesterday.

 

[shlokavica22]

In hindsight I should have rolled on 11/2. The calls haven't gone up much since then. But I'd have a substantially lower gain to rollover if I roll on a low day like today rather than when the SP is around 250 - they are down 20% today compared to yesterday.

The IV dropped today, so that's also part of the reason.
I bought back calls I sold yesterday for 1/2 the price (Nov30), 3/4 the price (Dec21) and still have a standing order for Jun21'19.
I also plan to roll part of my Jan'19 calls, but wait for more drastic jump in the IV.

 

[EVNow]

The IV dropped today, so that's also part of the reason.
I bought back calls I sold yesterday for 1/2 the price (Nov30), 3/4 the price (Dec21) and still have a standing order for Jun21'19.
I also plan to roll part of my Jan'19 calls, but wait for more drastic jump in the IV.

The IV has been going up and down a bit lately. It went up yesterday.

For eg. J'19 C350 mid IV went up to 55.01% from 53.68% yesterday. Today it dropped to 52.36%. Could also be because of generally low volumes today.

 

[anthonyj]

My Jan calls are 30% off today. Monday morning I could’ve sold them for $15.00, now $6.8.

 

[shlokavica22]

The IV has been going up and down a bit lately. It went up yesterday.

For eg. J'19 C350 mid IV went up to 55.01% from 53.68% yesterday. Today it dropped to 52.36%. Could also be because of generally low volumes today.

View attachment 354651

That's what IV does- jumping around and screwing unsuspecting gamblers (myself included)

 

[Cherry Wine]

Does theta decay take place on non-trading days? Considering closing out my 12/21 call Friday.

 

[TDog]

Does theta decay take place on non-trading days? Considering closing out my 12/21 call Friday.

Time doesn't stop on weekends or holidays. The closer you get to expiry, the less chance of something positive (or negative) to happen.

 

[tivoboy]

Does theta decay take place on non-trading days? Considering closing out my 12/21 call Friday.

Sure it does but it doesn’t get realized till the option starts selling again during market hours. If we stayed at this equity price level till Friday. (Short day at cboe) future options in the near to maybe 60 day term will just drop at the open a bit. Or the bid will just be down

 

[EVNow]

Does theta decay take place on non-trading days? Considering closing out my 12/21 call Friday.

Yes it does. But SP has a much larger impact than time decay. For eg, if the SP goes up by say $2, it will cover for the weekend decay.

 

[EVNow]

NASDAQ is losing some ground late in the day, may end the day 1% up - and Tesla might end the day down $10 (~3%) for no particular reason at all. Strange.

edit : Large buy at 338. Was that you @KarenRei ?

edit 2 : So, TSLA ends at 338.19, down 9.30 (2.68%). Nasdaq up 0.92%.

 

[viridi]

NASDAQ is losing some ground late in the day, may end the day 1% up - and Tesla might end the down $10 (~3%) for no particular reason at all. Strange.

edit : Large buy at 338. Was that you @KarenRei ?

Maybe the FUDsters have managed to tie SpaceX stories to Tesla. There is a story floating around on the Tesla wires about SpaceX and NASA (“Elon Musk’s relationship with NASA foggy” (about Musk, pot, NASA, and safety concerns)) and a story about SpaceX “slashing” a debt offering from $750 million to $250 million. The low volume has also not helped, allowing shorts to play their usual low-volume games.

 

[anthonyj]

ARK dumps more shares today.

 

[tivoboy]

NASDAQ is losing some ground late in the day, may end the day 1% up - and Tesla might end the down $10 (~3%) for no particular reason at all. Strange.

edit : Large buy at 338. Was that you @KarenRei ?

Krei is smarter than that.

Let the price come to you and it will set you free

 

[Cherry Wine]

Picked up a Mar19 340c at close. Prices were almost as low as the fateful drop on 11/12.

I feel a little exposed; hoping to be able to hedge by writing an option at a higher strike on some upward movement next week. The bull call spread strategy is very appealing to a naturally risk averse person such as myself.