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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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anthonyj

Stonks
May 16, 2018
2,357
18,223
Naples, FL
Tesla is the only stock that makes absolutely no sense. On Monday we fly up to $366 with high volume. Every other stock was being killed. The pop faded, but Tesla showed relative strength compared to other tech stocks. Today we gap up but then bleed while the Nasdaq was up over 1% the whole day. I don’t understand. Really screwing with my brain. The price action seems man made.
 
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Carl Raymond

Active Member
Oct 18, 2018
1,459
11,394
NSW, Australia
I think the “push for 7k model 3 peak output rate” news has definitley been under appreciated.

Tesla achevied solid profitability last quarter at an equivalent annual run rate of 335,000 S/3/X vehicles.

At 7k model 3 weekly rate (9k including S/X) - that annual run rate increases to 450,000+.

If they can acheive burst test equivalent of 7k weekly rate in next couple of weeks, it would seen a 100,000 unit production goal for January-March quarter isnt that big of a stretch.

I get super excited about this. At first glance it looks like a 34% increase. But where was break even volume? Let's take a stab that it was at 305,000. So at 335,000 they produced at 30,000 over break even. At 450,000 they are 145,000 over break even. That's a 480% increase in profit.
 

gene

Supporting Member
Feb 11, 2013
2,174
11,402
Santa Barbara, CA

MarcusMaximus

Active Member
Jan 2, 2017
3,789
16,514
Los Gatos
I get super excited about this. At first glance it looks like a 34% increase. But where was break even volume? Let's take a stab that it was at 305,000. So at 335,000 they produced at 30,000 over break even. At 450,000 they are 145,000 over break even. That's a 480% increase in profit.

Keep in mind some mix of those will be lower margin Lemurs.
 
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Carl Raymond

Active Member
Oct 18, 2018
1,459
11,394
NSW, Australia
Papa Elon’s cooking some shorts this Thanksgiving. Good thing he doesn’t know how to cook. No worries. Burnt shorts go into the trash, where they belong.

I know you jest, but I do feel that this has become Elon's favourite sport - the surprise announcement that lifts the stock (out of market hours, of course). It's his way of saying "strong longs shalt be rewarded".

We saw it with the Roadster, the lemur, the early Q3 report, hardware II, the new chip.

I love surprises. What's that building in Lathrop for? What's for Christmas?
 

printf42

Active Member
Sep 29, 2018
1,126
10,581
CA
I know you jest, but I do feel that this has become Elon's favourite sport - the surprise announcement that lifts the stock (out of market hours, of course). It's his way of saying "strong longs shalt be rewarded".
I would like to see some concrete of GF3, like an announcement of Chinese loan or even an 8K about the progress.:D
 

Artful Dodger

"Ducimus, lit"
Aug 9, 2018
8,266
101,030
Canada
Higher highs and lower lows. Nice for drivers short term, but will lead to reduced investments and higher prices in 12-18 months. Thiwill put pressure on high cost producers like Venezuela. Would be nice to see some strategic investment retreats in fracking and offshore development.

Not just Venezuela. Today brought a new record low for Western Canadian Select (a heavy oil blend from Alberta), down 33.55% to $11.43 / barrel.

Locally-owned (wholesale-only) producers certainly will go out of business at those prices. However, Oil majors get a different deal. For example, the Koch Bros. own both ends of the Alberta Clipper pipeline to their refinery in Minnesota. So 'Net', they make more money total because they can buy oil cheap in Alberta, then sell product (liquid fuels like gas and diesel) into the US at retail market prices.

Exxon gets the same deal with the Keystone pipeline to Port Arthur, TX.

Dirty? You bet. Sustainable? Not so much.

WCS.2018-11-21.RecordLowPrice.11.43.perBarrel.png
 
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