TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[shrspeedblade]

Whales are out on holiday.

Shorts, OTOH, have no family or holidays.

I was thinking today, "Couldn't they at least take Thanksgiving off!"

Then I remembered how much they've lost this year, so they probably need to work holidays.

 

[Off Shore]

Whales are out on holiday.

Shorts, OTOH, have no family or holidays are salaried, and work when Chuck and Dave tell them to.

FTFY

 

[anthonyj]

Tesla is the only stock that makes absolutely no sense. On Monday we fly up to $366 with high volume. Every other stock was being killed. The pop faded, but Tesla showed relative strength compared to other tech stocks. Today we gap up but then bleed while the Nasdaq was up over 1% the whole day. I don’t understand. Really screwing with my brain. The price action seems man made.

 

[Carl Raymond]

I think the “push for 7k model 3 peak output rate” news has definitley been under appreciated.

Tesla achevied solid profitability last quarter at an equivalent annual run rate of 335,000 S/3/X vehicles.

At 7k model 3 weekly rate (9k including S/X) - that annual run rate increases to 450,000+.

If they can acheive burst test equivalent of 7k weekly rate in next couple of weeks, it would seen a 100,000 unit production goal for January-March quarter isnt that big of a stretch.

I get super excited about this. At first glance it looks like a 34% increase. But where was break even volume? Let's take a stab that it was at 305,000. So at 335,000 they produced at 30,000 over break even. At 450,000 they are 145,000 over break even. That's a 480% increase in profit.

 

[gene]

Last senatorial special election is coming next Tuesday. This effects TSLA, as you will understand if you look at the stark differences between the republican ultra conservative racist and Espy the democrat. https://www.clarionledger.com/story...mith-mike-espy-said-before-runoff/2012159002/

I've sent Espy some $$ to help out. He has a good chance to win as young folks have been turning out. If you can send a few bucks, it may come back to us in TSLA karma! Mike Espy for U.S. Senate

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I get super excited about this. At first glance it looks like a 34% increase. But where was break even volume? Let's take a stab that it was at 305,000. So at 335,000 they produced at 30,000 over break even. At 450,000 they are 145,000 over break even. That's a 480% increase in profit.

Keep in mind some mix of those will be lower margin Lemurs.

 

[SpaceCash]

Keep in mind some mix of those will be lower margin Lemurs.

Isn't the margin difference extremely negligible? I believe it is.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Keep in mind some mix of those will be lower margin Lemurs.

Agreed. I square that off with further improvements in labour productivity and declining battery costs.

 

[Dwdnjck]

Could it be that today’s drop is a result of lower oil prices courtesy of Saudi Arabia paying off Trump?

 

[anthonyj]

Could it be that today’s drop is a result of lower oil prices courtesy of Saudi Arabia paying off Trump?

Low Volume Pullback

 

[Carl Raymond]

Low Volume Pullback

Weak. That's the only way to describe those weak longs.

 

[anthonyj]

Papa Elon’s cooking some shorts this Thanksgiving. Good thing he doesn’t know how to cook. No worries. Burnt shorts go into the trash, where they belong.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Papa Elon’s cooking some shorts this Thanksgiving. Good thing he doesn’t know how to cook. No worries. Burnt shorts go into the trash, where they belong.

I know you jest, but I do feel that this has become Elon's favourite sport - the surprise announcement that lifts the stock (out of market hours, of course). It's his way of saying "strong longs shalt be rewarded".

We saw it with the Roadster, the lemur, the early Q3 report, hardware II, the new chip.

I love surprises. What's that building in Lathrop for? What's for Christmas?

 

[printf42]

Keep in mind some mix of those will be lower margin Lemurs.

No no, we saw calculation here showed Lemurs should have at least same margin.

 

[printf42]

I know you jest, but I do feel that this has become Elon's favourite sport - the surprise announcement that lifts the stock (out of market hours, of course). It's his way of saying "strong longs shalt be rewarded".

I would like to see some concrete of GF3, like an announcement of Chinese loan or even an 8K about the progress.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Higher highs and lower lows. Nice for drivers short term, but will lead to reduced investments and higher prices in 12-18 months. Thiwill put pressure on high cost producers like Venezuela. Would be nice to see some strategic investment retreats in fracking and offshore development.

Not just Venezuela. Today brought a new record low for Western Canadian Select (a heavy oil blend from Alberta), down 33.55% to $11.43 / barrel.

Locally-owned (wholesale-only) producers certainly will go out of business at those prices. However, Oil majors get a different deal. For example, the Koch Bros. own both ends of the Alberta Clipper pipeline to their refinery in Minnesota. So 'Net', they make more money total because they can buy oil cheap in Alberta, then sell product (liquid fuels like gas and diesel) into the US at retail market prices.

Exxon gets the same deal with the Keystone pipeline to Port Arthur, TX.

Dirty? You bet. Sustainable? Not so much.

 

[Artful Dodger]

No no, we saw calculation here showed Lemurs should have at least same margin.

Yeah, better margins on the LeM3R since the 2170 cells have the lowest margin of any component in the car, while every extra copy of Autopilot sold is nearly 100% pure profit.

Cheers!

 

[Krugerrand]

The 7000 goal must be dependent on Panasonic and possibly additional Grohmann systems at GF1 and probably additional tuning at Fremont.

Longer term it also seems dependent on logistics, but that seems much more organized since buying the trucking company.

Won’t depend on logistics if the 7k is split between NA, China and EU.

 

[tinm]

Right now I think Tesla’s methodology is extremely misleading:

Is what Fred said:

https://electrek.co/2018/11/21/tesla-updates-model-s-x-design-studio-controversial-pricing/

Naughty, naughty.

It's beyond naughty. It's what I would expect out of an auto dealership. C'mon Tesla this is bs.

 

[EinSV]

It's beyond naughty. It's what I would expect out of an auto dealership. C'mon Tesla this is bs.

The full cash price is clearly visible for any customer to see. Average cost savings is as good a measure of savings as anything. Fred is just being a jerk.