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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
TSLA short interest now estimated to be below 28M shares, lowest during 2018H2. Short interest exceeded 36M shares at times in July:
CH3ERS!
Ihor Dusaniwsky @ihors3 3 hours ago
$TSLA short interest is $9.55 bn, 27.78 mm shares shorted, 21.61% of float. Stock borrow is at G.C. levels. #Tesla shares shorted down 2.15 mm shares in November, -7.19%, and down 6.14 mm shares,-18.09%, since The Tweet. Shorts are down -$196mm in MTM losses for Nov, -$1.7bn YTD
![DtGJFwkW0AEKFWV[1].jpg](https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/attachments/dtgjfwkw0aekfwv-1-jpg.356128/ "DtGJFwkW0AEKFWV[1].jpg")
$TSLA short interest is $9.55 bn, 27.78 mm shares shorted, 21.61% of float. Stock borrow is at G.C. levels. #Tesla shares shorted down 2.15 mm shares in November, -7.19%, and down 6.14 mm shares,-18.09%, since The Tweet. Shorts are down -$196mm in MTM losses for Nov, -$1.7bn YTD
CH3ERS!
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The Fed blinked. Santa Claus rally in effect.
dhrivnak
Active Member
People in the rust belt are hungry for work. Often well trained for manufacturing and offer affordable living with little traffic. There is great upside and benefits in middle America.
Why is TSLA stuck down here while the rest of the market charges ahead? We should be in the $350s if we were keeping up with the market. Oh well.
shrspeedblade
Rideshare Monkey
A smaller, secondary benefit would be I think to speed acceptance and adoption of EVs in parts of the country that have been less interested to this point.
anthonyj
Stonks
That’s just how Tesla rolls. Other stocks don’t have massive amounts of delusional shorts. But when we pop, we pop hard
shrspeedblade
Rideshare Monkey
Why start screwing up this stock by having it make sense!
(I bet it irks trump that somebody else can move the markets with a word more than he can.)
But the unions are probably too powerful there; unions are a big cause of the rust belt being the rust belt in the first place.
Over at thestreet.com there is a BS story asking why Donald Trump didn't come after Tesla when they laid off 9% of their workspace earlier this year.
I was surprised by this angle, until I saw that the author is our trusty A. Wahlrus who is at it again. Be warned:
Where Was Donald Trump When Tesla Laid Off 9% of Its Workforce?
I was surprised by this angle, until I saw that the author is our trusty A. Wahlrus who is at it again. Be warned:
Where Was Donald Trump When Tesla Laid Off 9% of Its Workforce?
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
That's not true, trade plus investment flows form an accounting identity: one country's exports to another country form that country's imports from the trading partner, and same for investment flows - but the two levels are independent. Foreign currency (dollar) reserve levels held by the country's central bank are a third value. There's often observed correlation and sound policy relationships between these levels, but there's no accounting identity between the trade deficit and currency reserves levels.
Firstly, you provide a good counterargument yourself:
Not just the 1950s, but the U.S. trade deficit was very close to zero in the early 1990s as well.
What kind of "basic" "mathematical" "accounting identity" breaks down under "special circumstances"?
Hint: none do, math is math - and this should already have given you a hint that the relationship between trade deficits and currency reserves are not strictly mathematical - that's why the observed correlation between U.S. trade deficits and can "break down" i.e. can become false under "special" circumstances.
Which is the core point I made.
Secondly, I believe your misunderstanding comes partly from this source:
The claim that "foreigner that hold dollars in a NY bank account need to trade their own currencies to get them" is false, exchanging foreign currencies into dollars is very much not the only way to gain access to dollars: U.S. investment in foreign assets will flow dollars to foreign accounts. Foreign investment in U.S. assets will flow dollars from foreign accounts into U.S. accounts. Both discretionary decisions of investment change the supply of dollars in foreign accounts yet don't change the trade balance.
New (and old) dollars can flow to foreign owners without any forex mechanism. The dollars can then flow between foreign owners and can even flow back to U.S. owners again - and it commonly happens exactly that way in world trade and finance, due to the significant transaction cost of foreign exchange.
Finally, your claimed accounting identity is easily falsified by currency reserves data, international reserves held in dollars stayed mostly flat in the last 10 years, according to IMF data:
The percentage of dollar reserves was mostly constant in the last 10 years, at around 60-65%. (If we include inflation then the real value of foreign dollar reserves actually decreased.)
Yet in the last 10 years the U.S. ran a cumulative trade deficit of around ~4 trillion dollars:
This is a huge, gaping, 4 trillion dollars hole in your argument: those ~4 trillion dollars did not flow into foreign exchange dollar reserves. They partly flowed back into the U.S. through foreign capital investments.
TL;DR: There's no mathematical/accounting link between 'reserve currency status' and 'trade deficits'. Your claim is contradicted by basic understanding of international currency and trade flows and by actual data as well. What you claim is not real. It doesn't exist. It's a myth.
If you still disagree please cite actual data of international trade and currency flows, like I did.
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Lucky_Man
Member
Having the Ds running the House will mean the potential exists we'll see an end to *radical* gerrymandering. Many obscenely convoluted maps will be redrawn in 2021. Hoping sanity rules the 2020 elections...
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Gentlemen please, the MARKET.
+1
Indeed. And for the last couple of days I alone have been posting in the General Discussion thread for TSLA investors, where the majority of recent posts seen in this thread should have been going. Lately few people show proper respect for this Market Action thread, which is supposed to be confined to current TSLA share price action. Come on people.
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Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Macros improved markedly after Fed chairman Powell's dovish comments today.
NASDAQ and Dow futures rose sharply, the dollar started weakening across the board - which are risk-on bullish signs.
Interestingly $TSLA first rose to a daily high following the NASDAQ, then mostly gave back those gains bouncing back from the daily high. This was on pretty low volume (~30% volume of the typical daily volume by now), so I'd say it's cautious profit taking and holding/waiting behavior.
Unlike yesterday there's no clear buy or sell $TSLA pressure, so far at least.
So we have basically Market Inaction so far today - which is why I got lured into arguing about international macro trade flows and deficits, which I think is important to understand for two reasons:
NASDAQ and Dow futures rose sharply, the dollar started weakening across the board - which are risk-on bullish signs.
Interestingly $TSLA first rose to a daily high following the NASDAQ, then mostly gave back those gains bouncing back from the daily high. This was on pretty low volume (~30% volume of the typical daily volume by now), so I'd say it's cautious profit taking and holding/waiting behavior.
Unlike yesterday there's no clear buy or sell $TSLA pressure, so far at least.
So we have basically Market Inaction so far today - which is why I got lured into arguing about international macro trade flows and deficits, which I think is important to understand for two reasons:
- the current recession risks (and lack thereof), which has an indirect effect on $TSLA price levels as well,
- also, since Tesla does about half of its business abroad and sets it prices from an USD basis but with a pricing delay, so a stronger dollar is hurting Tesla's income in a measurable fashion. Trade deficits and a weaker dollar on the other hand are helping Tesla.
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I got so worked up over this "Fed Chairman Powell speech," (I darn near soiled my armor!) ...now here we are, 1 hr. 10 minutes later, and SP is right back where we started.
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