TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[SebastianR]

Thanks @neroden much appreciated!

Ummmm..... bad timing?

Yes and no: I got it in the last 10 minutes before close of market for the Q3 earnings call and then got greedy. I'm still doing good though...

That's it?

Yea, think so...

I'm curious what sort of product you have in Denmark. If I had US-style call options, I'd sell 'em now, or next week, and switch to something which expires further in the future. (Aka "roll them out".) But you may have some other product?

It is a German knock-out certificate. It works similar to a call option but has a knock-out price which means if the share price falls below that threshold, the certificate loses all value immediately. The advantage is that pricing is pretty transparent and you typically don't need to worry about volatility - unless the knock-out is triggered...

 

[MP3Mike]

Some of the big ones currently:

BYD - 26 GWh
Tesla - 20 GWh
Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) - 17 GWh
LG Chem - 12.8 GWh
Tianjin Lishen Battery Joint-Stock - 10 GWh
CBAK Energy Technology Inc - 8 GWh
Eve Energy - 7.5 GWh

I think those numbers are very misleading as they include non-automotive batteries. Tesla says that they are making 60% of the worldwide supply of automotive Lion batteries. So that means there is only a total of 13.33 GWh of production by other companies. How is that split up between BYD, CATL, LG Chem, and Samsung? (And the others.)

 

[lklundin]

Did anyone receive information about the settlement method for the 2019 bonds?

Only holders of the bonds needed to be informed, so either Tesla went with the default settlement or the note holders are now informed and keeping the information to themselves...

Today's market (in)action includes the two-hour trading session at the small German market maker Lang & Schwarz.

I had readied myself for buying in case the above question lead to some actionable information - which did not happen.

As far as I can see, no trades took place at L & S.

At the opening there were bids around 310 € and asks around 313 €, which at the end had gone up to bids at 313.592 € and asks at 316.087 €.

In US dollar that corresponds to the high 350'ies.

Let see what next week's two + two trading sessions bring.

Tesla Inc. Aktie | Aktienkurs | Chart | A1CX3T | US88160R1014

 

[Lessmog]

Have to strongly disagree. Some uses of options are almost as safe as stock but more lucrative. For example deep in the money long term options with a distant expiration. For instance if you bought Jan 2020 calls strike 140 you can commit less money per share with almost no extra cost for time premium. Low trading volumes on a down day they can be bought for almost the price of stock less the 140 strike. That allows more leverage. Most option traders want a lot higher leverage. If you hold until near to expiration you can sell for very close to the target price and go out another year or sell some to convert some of the options to shares. Can the stock go lower than 140, of course but not likely. If the stock were to drop materially, paradoxically the option will actually develop a higher time premium

Am I the only one to remember some gnashing of teeth in August, after The Tweet? A number of members got pretty badly burned by playing those "safe" options, or so they said ...

 

[EVNow]

TL;DR - The President can unilaterally withdraw from a treaty when the treaty, executive, & legislature have ALL agreed ahead of time that he can.

The most recent examples are when Trump withdrew from the Paris accord & treaty with Iran.

 

[thait84]

Am I the only one to remember some gnashing of teeth in August, after The Tweet? A number of members got pretty badly burned by playing those "safe" options, or so they said ...

Those were out of the money long options (some above $420) These are deep in the money long options.

 

[anthonyj]

Attention, please. Fasten your tinfoil hats for this one. What if Porsche/VW are quietly accumulating shares just like the 2008 VW squeeze?

 

[Chickenlittle]

Am I the only one to remember some gnashing of teeth in August, after The Tweet? A number of members got pretty badly burned by playing those "safe" options, or so they said ...

What are you talking about. Options affected to same degree as those options. Only diverge if share price drops below 140. When was the last time you saw that?

 

[Intl Professor]

This thread has turned into Twitter

There is no Tesla news. We are in a holding pattern until concrete verifiable evidence of production and profits is available. The saying "idle hands do the devil's work" has an internet corollary: "active minds plus metacarpals activate electrons." Another BFO.

 

[snellenr]

The most recent examples are when Trump withdrew from the Paris accord & treaty with Iran.

Neither of those examples were ratified treaties (same goes for Kyoto, before anyone brings that up).

Of course, none of this implies that a Hawaiian district court judge won't rule it unconstitutional, be supported by the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals, only to have their rulings swatted down by the Supreme Court...

 

[Menifeer]

Am I the only one to remember some gnashing of teeth in August, after The Tweet? A number of members got pretty badly burned by playing those "safe" options, or so they said ...

The deep-in-the-money LEAPS mentioned certainly lost value, but they actually lost less than the same amount invested in shares would have. The LEAPS eventually recovered, of course - that's the advantage of going long-term.

My investment strategy is to buy DITM LEAPS and sell short-term calls against them. Have been doing it for a very long time with favorable results.

 

[Earlian]

What if Porsche/VW are quietly accumulating shares just like the 2008 VW squeeze?

That would be...
....wild speculation
....totally unlikely
....to the taste of Piëch
....possible
....and from a pure egoistic point of view: Awesome!

 

[Lessmog]

What are you talking about. Options affected to same degree as those options. Only diverge if share price drops below 140. When was the last time you saw that?

The deep-in-the-money LEAPS mentioned certainly lost value, but they actually lost less than the same amount invested in shares would have. The LEAPS eventually recovered, of course - that's the advantage of going long-term.

My investment strategy is to buy DITM LEAPS and sell short-term calls against them. Have been doing it for a very long time with favorable results.

Thanks, Menifeer, it gets a little bit clearer to me now. The crucial thing (one of many?) seems to be strike price?
Anyway, options are complicated and I for one had better stay away until I know more. Congratulations on your success.

 

[Cherry Wine]

"newbies should stick to selling puts on dips". Unless I'm am missing something, this is the absolute worst advice one could give to a "newbie", (one who has little experience in market in general and certainly little to none in options).

Case in point: There was a poster here a few days ago that announced that he had sold 10 Jan 2020 and rued the fact that he had not sold 100. He did not mention what strike price he used. I asked this poster if he had sold these puts to open a position or close a position. I got no response, so I'm going to assume that he sold to open. As an example, let's say he sold the Jan 2020 $300 puts. For the purposes of this discussion, it doesn't really matter how much he sold them for. What really matters is this: He has sold someone the right to put 1000 shares of Tesla to him at anytime between now and 3rd Friday of Jan 2020. So if, for whatever reason, Tesla tanks below $300, the owner of the puts can exercise his right to sell 1000 shares to the poster. The poster will have to come up with $300,000. If the poster had actually sold what he wished he had sold, he would have to come up with $3,000,000. (remember, I chose strike of 300 for illustrative purposes) One could assume any other strike, but the message is the same. Taking this type of risk and losing could change someone's life in a very meaningful and painful way. JMO

I agree that people will get burned by options unless they know what they're doing (and sometimes, so will those who do know), but I'd just like to point out in the example quoted above that it's unlikely the person's broker would have allowed him/her to sell those puts without the corresponding collateral required to secure them. Your overall message is well taken, though, and I fully agree -- be careful with options.

I merely point this out because selling secured puts can be a very lucrative trading strategy when done properly -- just ask our friend @neroden -- and many people come to this thread for trading advice. Just adding some food for thought to the already well-put (no pun intended) advice given by @Hock1 above.

 

[SebastianR]

Attention, please. Fasten your tinfoil hats for this one. What if Porsche/VW are quietly accumulating shares just like the 2008 VW squeeze?

That's quite obviously tinfoil hat territory. However, I think statements like these are super important: what we see is how one after the other in the traditional car OEM world sees how Tesla is not just an early mover but has a really great product, too.

I know so many Germans who think that "anybody can do what Tesla is doing if they just wanted to" and "did you see those Tesla panel gaps?!?" - they are used to Chinese companies trying to copy them (and fail in doing so) for decades. So what we are seeing is OEMs who are paying some closer attention for the first time. That leads to statements like the Porsche statement but also to reactions like we have seen from Munro etc.

I could also see some of the OEMs struggling to achieve what Tesla has achieved and so there might be a need to adjust expectations - I think one day we might see a statement like this from Porsche/VW/Audi/BMW: "sure the Tesla is quicker to 60, faster around the track, has better charging - but only our car is a true Porsche/VW/Audi/BMW which has the feel, brand identity and automotive history YOU can expect from your new car!"...

 

[EVNow]

Am I the only one to remember some gnashing of teeth in August, after The Tweet? A number of members got pretty badly burned by playing those "safe" options, or so they said ...

I don't think those were DITM options. Those were OTM.

On 8/7 - C500 went from $40 to $16. C300 went from $100 to $115.

 

[EVNow]

Of course, none of this implies that a Hawaiian district court judge won't rule it unconstitutional, be supported by the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals, only to have their rulings swatted down by the Supreme Court...

This is an example of a response that should go to the Market Politics thread.

 

[Intl Professor]

If I make a suggestion...

If your post is "Market Action Related", make your first line read "Market Action Related" or
"M A R" or just "MR". If it's Off Topic, your first line could read "Off Topic" or "OT". Skip a few lines and then make your point.

This will help those who only want 'fundamentals' stuff to skip your post. I have too many TMC tabs open already and get lost far too easily. Tho, then again, maybe that's bc I'm just a grumpy 72 yo fart ;^)

Peace on you all.

Oh to be so young again and able to fart with abandon.

 

[avoigt]

Seriously I never understood the "logic" behind Hybids. Since 10 years I call them dead in the water.

Think about it, you implement two already complex drive units that work alone nicely in one car and try to make them work somehow together. You have kind of twice the parts and technology challenges and you do not get rid of any challenges or costs like for instance maintenance but just add. Also you have now two requirements/possibilities to add energy/gas.

How could such an approach ever be better or even with costs of just EVs or just ICEs or better in efficiency considering costs and all additional parts.

I cannot find actually a single reasons why it make sense still they produce this cars since many years.

Now as consumers have a choice with EVs that provide the decent range and a good charging infrastructure knowbody should be surprised that they go down in sales.

Its been a dead end road at day one and not even a "bridge technology" as often stated.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[JRP3]

If you want to avoid range anxiety and you don't have the Tesla Supercharger network a hybrid still makes sense. Do most of your local driving on electricity and leverage the existing petroleum fueling system for longer trips.