TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

OT Brexit:

That would hurt the cosmopolitans - who didn't vote for Brexit.

Basically by making the working class not part of this rich urbanites industry, the working class think they have nothing to lose - and are happy if some banks/FIs close down.

Yeah, because the 2008 financial crisis hurt U.S. urban citizens and the financial industry disproportionately, right?

Wrong, sadly: financial crises usually result in the worst, deepest kinds of recessions hitting rural population and manufacturing particularly hard - but here the U.K. is also losing easy market access due to Brexit, which will create independent recessions in manufacturing and food production as well, which will suffer from the loss of efficiency in today's just-in-time supply chains. There could also be a housing crash freezing construction spending and spreading the pain.

Also, the U.K. services market, much of which is EU directed, will lose single market access as well. Services are 80% of the U.K.'s GDP...

Pretty much the only major industry that is going to benefit from Brexit will be Fleet Street and the Murdochs, who will avoid burdensome bureaucratic EU regulations like "do not monopolize the media" and "tell the truth".

(Also Putin, who'll again command the third largest European economy after delegating the U.K. to fourth-fifth place via helping a low cost disinformation campaign. Best bang for bucks ratio if you are into chaos and dystopian outcomes.)

 

[TheMrX]

OT (on topic

Canada arrests Huawei CFO, who is wanted by US authorities

Futures just dropped on the news, let see if TSLA will follow the indices tomorrow.

Discalimer 1 : information is coirtesy of Option_sniper on twitter.

Diclaimer 2 : the link is unfortunately not a rickroll.

 

[ggr]

Uuhhh....has he also got a toothbrush in his mouth? (take a look!)

Hard to believe he ever brushed his teeth.

 

[Cherry Wine]

OT

OT (Con't)

Elon Musk‏Verified account @elonmusk 4h4 hours ago

Pump is single string. Some landing systems are not redundant, as landing is considered ground safety critical, but not mission critical. Given this event, we will likely add a backup pump & lines.​

It's a nice feeling to have an off-the-cuff remark validated by Elon and/or his engineering team at SpaceX.

Okay, putting back on my market action hat in this thread. Thanks for the fun today, all. Here's to $37X+ tomorrow.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Nasdaq futures down almost 1% as of 3:46 PM PST. Yikes.

 

[anthonyj]

OT (on topic

Canada arrests Huawei CFO, who is wanted by US authorities

Futures just dropped on the news, let see if TSLA will follow the indices tomorrow.

Discalimer 1 : information is coirtesy of Option_sniper on twitter.

Diclaimer 2 : the link is unfortunately not a rickroll.

Can someone explain why this impacts the market?

Nasdaq futures down almost 1% as of 3:46 PM PST. Yikes.

Good. That means Tesla is +3%

 

[Fact Checking]

New Nasdaq futures down almost 1% as of 3:46 PM PST. Yikes.

It's worse: NASDAQ futures actually spiked down from 6850 to 6650 -3%, and are now at -1.8%.

China is not going to take this lightly - Huawei is deeply embedded with party leadership and a source of national pride, this will be considered close to an act of war.

 

[Fact Checking]

Can someone explain why this impacts the market?

Significant escalation in trade and tariff tensions between the U.S. and China.

 

[Fact Checking]

Good. That means Tesla is +3%

Tariff tensions are typically not good for $TSLA

 

[dc_h]

I love the substance of the report. I hate the way the substance was gained. I like leaking when something bad is happening. I hate leaking when it is essentially just plain old industrial espionage. I hate industrial espionage even more if it has the TMZ sleaziness to it.

To me what BI did is like having someone break into your house, take a picture of you in the shower, publish it on their website and write "See how fat you are!" as the cherry on the top.

In this case, “how sexy are you”

 

[brian45011]

Depends, removing diesel vehicles and preventing them from spewing more harmful particulates for example is not wasteful.

No disagreement here. Politicians on the continent decided CO2 is more pernicious than fine particulates and NOx/SOx. Not so much on this side of the pond, hence a smaller market share for diesels . What percentage of vehicles disabled ran on diesel?

That brown haze that the populace ingests in city centers is not CO2.

 

[Chocochip]

1. VICKI SALVADOR replied
   
   7h7 hours ago
   I would have never imagined when I first started working at Tesla, that we would be making the amount of M3s that we make now. It’s actual insanity how many we are able to produce every day and it makes me so happy! Us factory employees got it in the bag! #tesla
   
   
2. 
   
3. 1h1 hour ago
   We got our record back last night
   
   Twitter. It's what's happening.

She followed up with this:
No just the opposite shift. We had the record at 1302 and then the opposite shift broke our record And last night we got it back.

I wonder if this is a moving daily target, meaning the sum of the last two 12-hour shifts. Either way, over 1300/day would be over 9100/week. And that's M3s, not including MS and MX, based on what she replied to. Nice!

 

[brian45011]

You have obviously never been behind a 15 year old V-8 powered vehicle (in 2009)...
The credit was only $3,500 to $4,500 so consider the pollution and lifetime remaining of a vehicle that would not achieve that price in a private party transaction...

Citing an edge case? Try a life cycle energy balance and figure out how long it takes to recover the destroyed embedded energy rendered useless by improved MPG and emission control systems.

 

[printf42]

Significant escalation in trade and tariff tensions between the U.S. and China.

Yes, Huawei is not just an ordinary Chinese private company, it has deep ties in Beijing. Touch them things will get personal quickly.
And, first move is to arrest the daughter of the Founder? Did someone just watched the new Sicario movie then had this idea?

 

[Carl Raymond]

Canada arrests Huawei CFO, who is wanted by US authorities

Futures just dropped on the news, let see if TSLA will follow the indices tomorrow.

Discalimer 1 : information is coirtesy of Option_sniper on twitter.

This woman has a Masters. She deals with sums each day that I would not see in a lifetime. Hearing is not till Friday. I've not read anything more serious than 'suspicion' regarding trade sanction violations. There better be some proof behind this, or it just smacks of playing hardball on the tariff negotiations, given the timing. Arresting her is so brutal. Surely all they had to do was request a meeting for a Q and A.

It runs deeper. Huawei has been in the news regarding security concerns. I no longer know who to trust on these matters. Maybe there are spy circuits in Huawei chips, or maybe Huawei competitors are playing dirty. If our own governments had been a bit more 'on our side' of late, it would be a lot easier to put faith in them.

 

[Fact Checking]

Either way, over 1300/day would be over 9100/week. And that's M3s, not including MS and MX, based on what she replied to. Nice!

I don't think the second part of is true: Tesla paint shop is shared between the S3X-es.

I believe the reason she singled out the M3 in her first post is that it's the main reason for paint shop utilization growth: from 280/day to the current 1,300/day levels.

Over 1,300/day combined is still crazy good: with 285/day for SX it's 1,015/day for the 3: more than 7,100/week extrapolated - and it doesn't look like they are done setting records.

8k/week Model 3 production could be within reach, and the paint shop is believed to be the major bottleneck to reach an eventual 10,000/week rate.

 

[TradingInvest]

OT (on topic

Canada arrests Huawei CFO, who is wanted by US authorities

Futures just dropped on the news, let see if TSLA will follow the indices tomorrow.

Discalimer 1 : information is coirtesy of Option_sniper on twitter.

Diclaimer 2 : the link is unfortunately not a rickroll.

This is not as big a deal as some people think. First of all, sometimes people spread fake news to benefit from market swings. Let's assume this is real for now, if Huawei indeed violated the Iran sanction, there will be a consequence (they can't sell equipment to Iran if their equipment have chips from the US). If Huawei didn't violate anything, then it will be sorted out. Either way it will be sorted out.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I don't think the second part of is true: Tesla paint shop is shared between the S3X-es.

I believe the reason she singled out the M3 in her first post is that it's the main reason for paint shop utilization growth: from 280/day to the current 1,300/day levels.

Over 1,300/day combined is still crazy good: with 285/day for SX it's 1,015/day for the 3: more than 7,100/week extrapolated - and it doesn't look like they are done setting records.

8k/week Model 3 production could be within reach, and the paint shop is believed to be the major bottleneck to reach an eventual 10,000/week rate.

Hmmmm, given that this is paint, that would seem to suggest overall run rate really is at >7k/week, not just individual parts as previously suggested. Can’t paint anything unless you have the entire car otherwise completed, right?

 

[Chocochip]

I don't think the second part of is true: Tesla paint shop is shared between the S3X-es.

I believe the reason she singled out the M3 in her first post is that it's the main reason for paint shop utilization growth: from 280/day to the current 1,300/day levels.

Over 1,300/day combined is still crazy good: with 285/day for SX it's 1,015/day for the 3: more than 7,100/week extrapolated - and it doesn't look like they are done setting records.

8k/week Model 3 production could be within reach, and the paint shop is believed to be the major bottleneck to reach an eventual 10,000/week rate.

First of all, I'm not sure she's working in the paint shop. I know the person she replied to is, but don't remember seeing anything to suggest she's in the paint shop.

Second, even if she is working in paint, I would have to assume that they're batching, both colors and particularly models. Hard to see how it's one S, then 3-4 M3s, then an X... Not impossible, but wouldn't really make sense. Still, if these numbers are for the paint shop, it does indicate an average for all models, although they've been tweeting about increasing the production rate, and as far as we know there's no ongoing optimisation for the production rates of S and X.

It seems like we are trying to determine if the news is good or very good!

 

[Carl Raymond]

This is not as big a deal as some people think. First of all, sometimes people spread fake news to benefit from market swings. Let's assume this is real for now, if Huawei indeed violated the Iran sanction, there will be consequence (they can's sell equipment to Iran if their equipment have chips from the US). If Huawei didn't violate, then it will be sorted out. Either way it will be sorted out.

I suspect Meng Wanzhou would disagree. Being arrested is a big deal. I just hope there's proof, else this is too heavy handed.