TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Big Earl]

True, but given that Tesla imports 49% of it's manufactured parts from China, a possible trade war will cost Tesla twice. Selling the vehicles to China, but also on importing parts/materials.

(edit: changed "the" trade war to "a possible" trade war)

(edit 2: the data on import percentage is not a hard number, but a rough estimate based on this tweet I saw posted earlier: Bozi Tatarevic on Twitter (credit to TMC user aubreymcfato))

Edit 3: 49% of Tesla’s imported parts come from China. This is different from 49% of Tesla’s manufactured parts coming from China, as Tesla sources a number of components from domestic suppliers.

 

[30seconds]

Edit 3: 49% of Tesla’s imported parts come from China. This is different from 49% of Tesla’s manufactured parts coming from China, as Tesla sources a number of components from domestic suppliers.

And manufacturers quite a bit of the parts themselves

 

[Causalien]

Does anyone know how deep the list is in Canada? Can they maybe dump thousands of cars there to avoid breaking 200,000 ?

They invited everyone who lined up on first day. Seei g how the population is 1/10th of usa. I am guessing 40k.

 

[Iceman]

They invited everyone who lined up on first day. Seei g how the population is 1/10th of usa. I am guessing 40k.

If that´s true then they can use Canada as a fairly deep dump for model 3´s if they are trying to hold off on the 200,000th delivery.

Canada + service centers + delivery centers + temporary parking lots here and there and perhaps they´ll get it done.

 

[Chickenlittle]

We are now hearing a lot of bluff and bluster from both sides. I expect it will eventually result in reasonable negotiations, but I would have started the process more diplomatically. As it is now, both sides will ultimately have to have their faces saved.

Recently Elon tweeted directly to Musk a complaint about the Chinese tariff on American built cars being 25%, yet the reverse is only 2.5%. Then in a press briefing Trump expressly noted Elon's complaint, so Trump apparently considers reducing that 25% tariff to be a quite important goal. If in the end that 25% tariff is indeed greatly reduced, then all is well for Tesla despite what now appears to be a convoluted process.

I am happy to hear that Elon and musk communicate with each other. Best policy is for each not to keep secret from the other

 

[Richgoogol]

Son of a beep...I set a limit order @ 296..did not go that far....looks like I missed the boat on the dip

 

[Waiting4M3]

If that´s true then they can use Canada as a fairly deep dump for model 3´s if they are trying to hold off on the 200,000th delivery.

Canada + service centers + delivery centers + temporary parking lots here and there and perhaps they´ll get it done.

Troy's sheet shows ~35% configuration rates from Canadian invites, people are waiting for AWD, even at 40k reservations, that may not be enough of a "deep dump" without the AWD. Since it takes longer to ship to Canada to deliver, Tesla should make AWD available by early May in order for Canadians to have time to config, the Tesla have time to manufacture and deliver before end of June.

 

[Do It]

Sold some covered calls (4/6 strike 290) on Tuesday when the price was around 270 after the delivery number was already out figuring that price would not move too much in 3 days after the news was already out. Boy...was I wrong :-( I had to cover/roll earlier today with steep loss. Lesson learned: never sell covered calls when the price is low. Next time to sell any covered calls would be when the price is close to 400. Of course I will never sell any shares until at least year 2020 or 600+ share price.

 

[bdy0627]

Son of a beep...I set a limit order @ 296..did not go that far....looks like I missed the boat on the dip

You can't time them all but you do want to catch the really big ones. After seeing $244 a few days ago, this one isn't worth worrying over.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Sold some covered calls (4/6 strike 290) on Tuesday when the price was around 270 after the delivery number was already out figuring that price would not move too much in 3 days after the news was already out. Boy...was I wrong :-( I had to cover/roll earlier today with steep loss. Lesson learned: never sell covered calls when the price is low. Next time to sell any covered calls would be when the price is close to 400. Of course I will never sell any shares until at least year 2020 or 600+ share price.

$400 may be too low of a target. If there is some major news that gets us back to ATH $380 and above, there is a good chance it won't just stop at $400. As an example, when we broke through the multi-year $280 ATH last March, we went to $300 quickly and stayed above it, $300 actually became a floor, and we often reached into $320s. That movement was based on M3 RC car sighting in Apr 2017, and expectations of production starting. If we get news about real production which gets us to ATH $380 again I suspect the price movement will be a lot more violent than just reaching and settling at $400.

 

[ZsoZso]

Troy's sheet shows ~35% configuration rates from Canadian invites, people are waiting for AWD, even at 40k reservations, that may not be enough of a "deep dump" without the AWD. Since it takes longer to ship to Canada to deliver, Tesla should make AWD available by early May in order for Canadians to have time to config, the Tesla have time to manufacture and deliver before end of June.

They don't need to have them all delivered in Canada by end of June, its just as good if they are in-transit for the sake of 200K delay in the US. OTOH, I would be fine if they hurry up with AWD to Canada, as that is what I'm waiting for

[OT: is that Spiegel's picture in your avatar ? Hard to recognize him in the outfit...]

 

[sundaymorning]

$400 may be too low of a target. If there is some major news that gets us back to ATH $380 and above, there is a good chance it won't just stop at $400. As an example, when we broke through the multi-year $280 ATH last March, we went to $300 quickly and stayed above it, $300 actually became a floor, and we often reached into $320s. That movement were based on M3 RC car sighting in Apr 2017, and expectations of production starting. If we get news about real production which gets us to ATH $380 again I suspect the price movement will be a lot more violent than just reaching and settling at $400.

The major news right now is Grohmann. Some very positive signs are pointing towards the new line being operation soon, the previous two large badges of VIN registration being one of them. The other signal was when Musk stated that the Grohmann lines were on a ship and should arrive in March. Now that Musk is taking over M3 production, the timing is ripe for him to take credit for ramping. Every time Musk sleeps at the factory, things get done. Couple this with some good news coming from China a deal is being worked out favoring autos and you have a spark for a good squeeze that could continue all the way to Tesla hitting cash flow positive in 3rd Q. Shorts are really playing Russian Roulette here.

 

[Richgoogol]

What’s you guys take on the trade war? If China hits back with an extended list over the weekend, the stock would probably tank on Monday? I’m thinking of getting rid of half of my positions just in case something happens over the weekend.

 

[sundaymorning]

Trump's Aluminum Victory May Baffle Buyers as U.S. Premium Jumps

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

Son of a beep...I set a limit order @ 296..did not go that far....looks like I missed the boat on the dip

I had 295.9

 

[Waiting4M3]

What’s you guys take on the trade war? If China hits back with an extended list over the weekend, the stock would probably tank on Monday? I’m thinking of getting rid of half of my positions just in case something happens over the weekend.

Possibly a good move, but TSLA hanging in there today with market down by >1%, so you never know. If you try this I'd watch the movement closely on Monday just in case TSLA has more run in it.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Possibly a good move, but TSLA hanging in there today with market down by >1%, so you never know. If you try this I'd watch the movement closely on Monday just in case TSLA has more run in it.

Of course will affect share price but not for long. Ramp up model 3 so strong not dependent on China sales. Volume of cars will rise significantly regardless of China. Even with higher tariffs cars sold in China will be higher with model3. Any decrease in volume and revenue from S and X will be more than made up with 3

 

[Lbkmxp100d]

I had 295.9

I have been there many times. Nothing makes me more upset at myself!

 

[Waiting4M3]

The major news right now is Grohmann. Some very positive signs are pointing towards the new line being operation soon, the previous two large badges of VIN registration being one of them. The other signal was when Musk stated that the Grohmann lines were on a ship and should arrive in March. Now that Musk is taking over M3 production, the timing is ripe for him to take credit for ramping. Every time Musk sleeps at the factory, things get done. Couple this with some good news coming from China a deal is being worked out favoring autos and you have a spark for a good squeeze that could continue all the way to Tesla hitting cash flow positive in 3rd Q. Shorts are really playing Russian Roulette here.

I don't feel that Elon is the type to take credit, I think he will gloat about stock prices such as "stormy weather" tweet but he usually gives credit to his people when things are going well at the factory.

Trump, OTOH, if he visited SF, and production in Fremont (30 miles away) went up, you'd never stop hearing about it.

 

[TradingInvest]

Sold some covered calls (4/6 strike 290) on Tuesday when the price was around 270 after the delivery number was already out figuring that price would not move too much in 3 days after the news was already out. Boy...was I wrong :-( I had to cover/roll earlier today with steep loss. Lesson learned: never sell covered calls when the price is low. Next time to sell any covered calls would be when the price is close to 400. Of course I will never sell any shares until at least year 2020 or 600+ share price.

There are two occasions you shouldn't sell covered Calls. I discussed this in the past.
Don't sell at the bottom; Don't sell at a solid breakout. These two occasions should be buying not selling.