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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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My dream is over $300 a share.

It would have been a nice end to the week, but a rise from the abyss of >20% isn't so bad either. Once the macros ease-off I think we'll be way up...

What was the cause of the general drop anyway, fake trade wars, interest rate threats, bad job figures, good job figures, Pruit to be booted (we hope)?? All of these?

Surreal times we're living in...
 
If that´s true then they can use Canada as a fairly deep dump for model 3´s if they are trying to hold off on the 200,000th delivery.

Canada + service centers + delivery centers + temporary parking lots here and there and perhaps they´ll get it done.

Ya. I am quite surprised that everyone I know who waited in line got invited. However, my guess is that most are waiting for dual motor seeing how most of the country is colder than siberia in the winter
 
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It would have been a nice end to the week, but a rise from the abyss of >20% isn't so bad either. Once the macros ease-off I think we'll be way up...

What was the cause of the general drop anyway, fake trade wars, interest rate threats, bad job figures, good job figures, Pruit to be booted (we hope)?? All of these?

Surreal times we're living in...
You forgot the evil bully Powell, fake money bubbles, presidential porn star expenses, and the media warning us to be more pessimistic in general. Can't wait to see what next week brings.:rolleyes:
 
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Regarding the tariff war. What's tesla's beef with not establishing a factory in China to skirt the tariff? No matter how they do the assembly, the factory will get copied and then a knock off spun out with the assistance of the gov. Why does it matter if they retain full ownership of a china assebly plant if the batteries made in usa controls the heart of the production?
 
Regarding the tariff war. What's tesla's beef with not establishing a factory in China to skirt the tariff? No matter how they do the assembly, the factory will get copied and then a knock off spun out with the assistance of the gov. Why does it matter if they retain full ownership of a china assebly plant if the batteries made in usa controls the heart of the production?

Its easy to copy the idea of a bunch of robots packed into a small, tight area. Its much harder if you dont have access to the software. Anyone can put a bunch robots close together. Not everyone can make it work and make it go fast. Since you have to partner in China, as in 50/50 partner, then you cant hold back that information. They could then reverse engineer the software, which would kill the actual thing that Tesla wants to become, Which is the company that builds the machine that builds the machine. You can reverse engineer all of Tesla's products and It doesnt matter, because you cant make them profitably without the software that makes everything go.
 
Its easy to copy the idea of a bunch of robots packed into a small, tight area. Its much harder if you dont have access to the software. Anyone can put a bunch robots close together. Not everyone can make it work and make it go fast. Since you have to partner in China, as in 50/50 partner, then you cant hold back that information. They could then reverse engineer the software, which would kill the actual thing that Tesla wants to become, Which is the company that builds the machine that builds the machine. You can reverse engineer all of Tesla's products and It doesnt matter, because you cant make them profitably without the software that makes everything go.

I see.with the other ma ufacturers it'skessof anissue since the secret lies in their managers who have knowledge of the process and the transfer of the knowledge will take time.

So the very moat that allows tsla to achieve higher margin is a doubke edged sword with regards to China and the potential 50% tariff.
 
Its easy to copy the idea of a bunch of robots packed into a small, tight area. Its much harder if you dont have access to the software. Anyone can put a bunch robots close together. Not everyone can make it work and make it go fast. Since you have to partner in China, as in 50/50 partner, then you cant hold back that information. They could then reverse engineer the software, which would kill the actual thing that Tesla wants to become, Which is the company that builds the machine that builds the machine. You can reverse engineer all of Tesla's products and It doesnt matter, because you cant make them profitably without the software that makes everything go.
That is the exact issue at hand. With that said though, an entity can have all the methods, designs, hardware, and software and still not be able to reproduce the process. GM learned this the hard way with the NUMMI plant. The whole point was for GM to learn the Toyota Way and then emulate it throughout the coperation. They had everything they needed and they still never managed to do it.
 
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Ya. I am quite surprised that everyone I know who waited in line got invited. However, my guess is that most are waiting for dual motor seeing how most of the country is colder than siberia in the winter
Tesla could ship a lot of Model 3's to Norway. In Norway it is common to have two cars in a household. In a small country like Norway, more than 24k people already bougth Model S and/or Model X, and a lot of those people kept their "long range" ICE family cars for longer trips, but found out that Model S or X is suitable for the long range trips with the whole family and luggage. With no need for the ICE car, they will switch the old car to the Model 3, even RWD, and use it as the 2nd car for smaller trips with less luggage.
 
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Regarding the tariff war. What's tesla's beef with not establishing a factory in China to skirt the tariff? No matter how they do the assembly, the factory will get copied and then a knock off spun out with the assistance of the gov. Why does it matter if they retain full ownership of a china assebly plant if the batteries made in usa controls the heart of the production?
At this time I do not believe China to be as important to tesla. Have seen 15% of volume in China but the model 3 is not sold there yet and I suspect no plans for that this year with large ramp up of model 3 now (already at combined S and X rate) the ratio of model 3 to S and X COULD GO 5 TIMES HIGHER. so the China volume of S and X would only be 3% which would easily made up for with the model 3
 
That is the exact issue at hand. With that said though, an entity can have all the methods, designs, hardware, and software and still not be able to reproduce the process. GM learned this the hard way with the NUMMI plant. The whole point was for GM to learn the Toyota Way and then emulate it throughout the coperation. They had everything they needed and they still never managed to do it.

Copying culture didn't work, but Tesla's robots don't have any culture, just software. Tesla is worried about something as it relates to partnering in China.
 
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That is the exact issue at hand. With that said though, an entity can have all the methods, designs, hardware, and software and still not be able to reproduce the process. GM learned this the hard way with the NUMMI plant. The whole point was for GM to learn the Toyota Way and then emulate it throughout the coperation. They had everything they needed and they still never managed to do it.

That was a people problem - specifically, the people in all the other non-NUMMI plants refused to adapt to the Toyota way, and GM couldn't force it without their co-operation, and gave up. You could I suppose blame management for not following through and making it happen, but when it comes down to it, if the local UAW didn't want to do it, it wasn't happening.
 
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True, but given that Tesla imports 49% of it's manufactured parts from China, a possible trade war will cost Tesla twice. Selling the vehicles to China, but also on importing parts/materials.

(edit 2: the data on import percentage is not a hard number, but a rough estimate based on this tweet I saw posted earlier: Bozi Tatarevic on Twitter (credit to TMC user aubreymcfato))

And this is how false info gets started. There is ZERO indications that Tesla imports 49% of its materials from China. NONE.

That data is from a very select and short period of time. Next week most shipments could be coming from Timbuktu.
 
That is the exact issue at hand. With that said though, an entity can have all the methods, designs, hardware, and software and still not be able to reproduce the process. GM learned this the hard way with the NUMMI plant. The whole point was for GM to learn the Toyota Way and then emulate it throughout the coperation. They had everything they needed and they still never managed to do it.

Right. You can have all the ingredients and even the recipe but it doesn’t mean you can make the cake.
 
At this time I do not believe China to be as important to tesla. Have seen 15% of volume in China but the model 3 is not sold there yet and I suspect no plans for that this year with large ramp up of model 3 now (already at combined S and X rate) the ratio of model 3 to S and X COULD GO 5 TIMES HIGHER. so the China volume of S and X would only be 3% which would easily made up for with the model 3

I certainly agree with this. Tesla will sell every car it can make for the next decade even if China is stagnant at 15%. This is why I think opening a plant in Europe first might be prudent. If our IP is that good, then we should skip China for now, unless they relax on regulations. If no plans get worked out by November, it’s time to move on.

I would not pick Germany, based on their 4 day work week it would not work. Maybe Greece since manufactures are needed there?
 
I certainly agree with this. Tesla will sell every car it can make for the next decade even if China is stagnant at 15%. This is why I think opening a plant in Europe first might be prudent. If our IP is that good, then we should skip China for now, unless they relax on regulations. If no plans get worked out by November, it’s time to move on.

I would not pick Germany, based on their 4 day work week it would not work. Maybe Greece since manufactures are needed there?

I would agree but China is unique in how aggressively they are moving to EVs. Tesla has a real opportunity to build a great brand there. I say so both. If Tesla can prove the model with model 3 then reveal the model Y and show that they can legitimately build a million cars a year even if it's just projected. There will be money to build those factories. When the magical year of 2020 comes and the competition again misses a magical Target of finally killing Tesla with their awesome innovative skills that they have been saving up for just this moment... Did I say 2022.. I meant 2025
..30.
 
I certainly agree with this. Tesla will sell every car it can make for the next decade even if China is stagnant at 15%. This is why I think opening a plant in Europe first might be prudent. If our IP is that good, then we should skip China for now, unless they relax on regulations. If no plans get worked out by November, it’s time to move on.

I would not pick Germany, based on their 4 day work week it would not work. Maybe Greece since manufactures are needed there?
I'd open one right next to Grohmann. Proximity to human labor pool is not the bottleneck, proximity to production automation equipment is.
 
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