TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Carl Raymond]

Short Squeezes Will Keep Pushing Tesla Stock Higher

Contains a few clumsy errors, but the readers targeted won't notice; otherwise it's on the money.

 

[avoigt]

I finally watched the 60 Minutes interview last night. Everything has already been said up in the thread, but I have a small anecdote.

My wife was sitting next to me and doing her own thing. She knows about Tesla and Elon and the mission (after all, I persuaded her to stretch our budget for investment 2 years ago and now for LR M3 AWD ), but doesn't follow actively. Halfway through the interview she looked up and said "Gosh, that woman is petty. Doesn't get the full picture at all.".

She did get also a little bit worried about working conditions at Tesla, but I explained those are empty accusations that haven't been proven yet and some dismissed by regulators.

Tiny sample, but maybe more "lay-people" had the same reaction.

I believe that Elon said much more about the so called accidents in the plant as they have a better statistics than most other automakers and are below average industry rate too.

What 60 minutes likely did is editing that part out as they wanted to feed the narrative. As releasing the full interview would mean everybody would see what they did they likely put the recording in a safe.

 

[dondy]

The image was not visible on the desktop - here is a better inline image of the latest global warming data:

I predict that as temperatures rise, people will be more willing to purchase EVs and will be more willing to invest into $TSLA as well, which is the obviously the more 'future proof' investment, compared to coal, oil and natural gas industry investments.

This probably has an effect on $TSLA price action already, it's just that we don't know the exact extent of it.

I ask very insistently to remove any association between Tesla and global warming/climate changing discussion. It is very important that in a 4-5y Tesla should be completely separated from this discussion.

If you do need a reason you can understand consider that the reason of "saving the climate" is just one of many possible reasons to buy or use Tesla products.

 

[cheshire cat]

Porsche claims that 50% of all Taycan reservation holder come from Tesla and if they all transform into orders they will be sold out for 1 year.

Claus Zeller, Porsche NA, Quote "“Normalerweise, wenn wir den Ursprung unseres Geschäfts betrachten, dann kommen die Leute von Marken wie Audi, BMW oder Mercedes. In diesem Fall ist die Nummer-Eins-Marke Tesla.”

Its been said that Porsche wants to tripple production capacity for the Taycan which was before 20k so now we talk about 60 units p.a..

If its 50% from previous or existing Tesla owners than that would mean between 10 - 30k Tesla owner made a reservation.

Although I do not have a doubt that the Taycan will sell and attract people I do have my doubts that this numbers are correct. Porsche has no history of being very accurate in their statements and no one can validate them.

Finally the narrative that the amount of people attracted to EVs is limited and manufacturers need to compete against each other to get enough demand is a misconception of the reality that +80 m car buyers every year will over time transform to EV so where is the case that the few people owning an EV today are the main target?

Porsche Taycan lockt viele Tesla-Kunden - ecomento.de

And why would anyone want to expose themselves to Porsche dealers as apposed to Tesla "dealers". No contest !

 

[Carl Raymond]

Agreed - and it would be really nice in a single premium spot like the 2019 Superbowl.

Legend has it that Tesla rose to fame without ever paying the media for advertising. It might be a fantastic Super Bowl ad. But it would destroy a legend - one that keeps on promoting forever, for free.

 

[Tslynk67]

Tight shorts today for $TSLAQ methinks...

 

[KarenRei]

Tight shorts today for $TSLAQ methinks...

Yeah, this premarket is lovely

Whoever it was who bought those December $375s the other day, I'd be rolling them over if the market opens as high as it is premarket right now ($370.40).

 

[Tslynk67]

Yeah, this premarket is lovely

Whoever it was who bought those December $375s the other day, I'd be rolling them over if the market opens as high as it is premarket right now ($370.40).

CNBC and Bloomberg reporting that Trump has Tweeted hints that China is about to back-off on tarrifs...

 

[anthonyj]

Just woke up, sorry if this was posted


Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[KarenRei]

Just woke up, sorry if this was posted


Elon Musk on Twitter

Was posted earlier.

Also, I'll take Trump's tweets with a grain of salt. But we'll see what the market thinks. At least it means he's not planning to impose new tariffs any time soon.

Money from my last stock sales just posted in my bank account. So, presumably a couple days for it to transfer to my IB account... hey, should be just in time for buying calls on the next low

 

[Pezpunk]

Short Squeezes Will Keep Pushing Tesla Stock Higher

Contains a few clumsy errors, but the readers targeted won't notice; otherwise it's on the money.

"The Tesla bull thesis will gain credence. The bear thesis will lose credence."

I would be sad if I lost all my Creedence.

"Now, the company is pumping out 1,000 a week. Clearly, Tesla has figured out its Model 3 production ramp."

Are we representing numerals in hexadecimal now? I applaud this change, as it's clearly superior to base-10, but it could lead some to think the author had made a mistake.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Yeah, this premarket is lovely

Whoever it was who bought those December $375s the other day, I'd be rolling them over if the market opens as high as it is premarket right now ($370.40).

Judging from recent patterns, I believe we are in margin call territory today, for all those shorts pushed into hot water by yesterday's 365.15 closing price.

The buying in pre-market is by the early birds who would rather be masters of their own fate. In three hours from now, who knows how high it might spike...

 

[ReflexFunds]

"A proposal to reduce tariffs on cars made in the U.S. to 15 percent from the current 40 percent has been submitted to China’s Cabinet to be reviewed in the coming days, according to people familiar with the matter." Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

This could be worth over $1bn to Tesla 2019 net profit.

 

[Tslynk67]

Said in Andy Serkis voice...

 

[Drax7]

Porsche claims that 50% of all Taycan reservation holder come from Tesla and if they all transform into orders they will be sold out for 1 year.

Claus Zeller, Porsche NA, Quote "“Normalerweise, wenn wir den Ursprung unseres Geschäfts betrachten, dann kommen die Leute von Marken wie Audi, BMW oder Mercedes. In diesem Fall ist die Nummer-Eins-Marke Tesla.”

Its been said that Porsche wants to tripple production capacity for the Taycan which was before 20k so now we talk about 60 units p.a..

If its 50% from previous or existing Tesla owners than that would mean between 10 - 30k Tesla owner made a reservation.

Although I do not have a doubt that the Taycan will sell and attract people I do have my doubts that this numbers are correct. Porsche has no history of being very accurate in their statements and no one can validate them.

Finally the narrative that the amount of people attracted to EVs is limited and manufacturers need to compete against each other to get enough demand is a misconception of the reality that +80 m car buyers every year will over time transform to EV so where is the case that the few people owning an EV today are the main target?

Porsche Taycan lockt viele Tesla-Kunden - ecomento.de

German car makers have perfected the Big Lie,
Their minister of propaganda is alive and well.

 

[ReflexFunds]

"A proposal to reduce tariffs on cars made in the U.S. to 15 percent from the current 40 percent has been submitted to China’s Cabinet to be reviewed in the coming days, according to people familiar with the matter." Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

This could be worth over $1bn to Tesla 2019 net profit.

Tesla China Pricing:

May (25% tariff): Base S $119k. Max X $219k.
June (15% tariff): Base S $110k. Max X $202k.
July (40% tariff): Base S $129k. Max X $240k. Model 3 LR AWD $83.5k. 3 Performance $99k
December (40% tariff): Base S $113k. Max X $171k. Model 3 LR AWD $78k. Performance $86k.

At 25% tariffs, China used to be a c.20k S&X annual market for Tesla. It is likely larger at the current lower pricing. So on Model S&X alone, the 25% tariff cut could add $400m-500m to 2019 net profit.

 

[KarenRei]

German car makers have perfected the Big Lie,
Their minister of propaganda is alive and well.

IMHO, I'm willing to give Porsche the benefit of the doubt here. They've been one of the most responsible with their claims thusfar... e.g. not pushing on the whole "Tesla Killer" meme. They seem to understand the critical importance of efficiency, of charge rates, etc, etc toward making a good EV. They've not been using misleading ads like Jaguar. In general, they've been the sort of "proper competition" that I want to see. They also have the second highest consumer satisfaction in the industry (after Tesla).

My only issue is that I still can't explain their "350kW charging" thing. I have several theories**, each with its own set of repercussions (mostly "not good", but some worse than others). We'll see which turns out to be true.

** Some unique way of preventing damage others haven't discovered (very unlikely); some mass-produced "super batteries" that have both high energy density *and* high C-rates, which nobody else in any industry has or even has any clue of (exceedingly unlikely); letting users fry their cells, on the notion that they won't be doing it often (quite possible); large chunks of the pack lopped off on the top and the bottom, so the C rate isn't actually as high as it looks to the driver (quite possible); having 350kW be "aspirational", but starting lower with the first gen, say 150kW (quite possible).

 

[Hogfighter]

Just out of curiosity: are the people in this thread who are daytrading Tesla (stock and/or options) doing this because they believe in Tesla’s mission? Or because it’s a volatile stock? No judgement! Just curious.

Both

 

[ReflexFunds]

Tesla China Pricing:

May (25% tariff): Base S $119k. Max X $219k.
June (15% tariff): Base S $110k. Max X $202k.
July (40% tariff): Base S $129k. Max X $240k. Model 3 LR AWD $83.5k. 3 Performance $99k
December (40% tariff): Base S $113k. Max X $171k. Model 3 LR AWD $78k. Performance $86k.

At 25% tariffs, China used to be a c.20k S&X annual market for Tesla. It is likely larger at the current lower pricing. So on Model S&X alone, the 25% tariff cut could add $400m-500m to 2019 net profit.

Further to this, because China applies 16% VAT and 10% purchase tax to the post tariff price, a 25% tariff reduction is in reality a removal of c.32% total taxes.
Because reduced Tesla prices are multiplied by the tariffs & taxes to get to the retail price, about 60% ($6k out of every $10k) of Tesla's recent price reduction per car translated into lower gross profit per car.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Shorts again this morning.