TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Pezpunk]

The Taycan seems really cool, and if they can pull off 60,000 units a year, dang, that would be a hell of an accomplishment. i'm extremely skeptical. that would basically equal Model S sales, despite there not being a charging network in place, a much higher starting price, and less practical capability as a family car.

still, this will undoubtedly eat into Model S sales, and hopefully accelerate Tesla's plans for a significant update to the car.

the P100D variant is now over two years old. it's time for an upgrade. The charging speed has been stagnant for even longer. A range boost would be nice. It's also becoming increasingly necessary to get a battery that can actually handle track work, like the Model 3 and even more notably, it's most direct upcoming competitor, the Taycan. Some kind cosmetic refresh is long overdue, too. The interior has had various incremental improvements, but no major (non-software) changes, and the exterior has remained almost identical to its initial 2012 version, which, i mean, no complaints, it's beautiful, but it's in its 7th year now. getting a bit long in the tooth.

 

[uselesslogin]

Tesla China Pricing:

May (25% tariff): Base S $119k. Max X $219k.
June (15% tariff): Base S $110k. Max X $202k.
July (40% tariff): Base S $129k. Max X $240k. Model 3 LR AWD $83.5k. 3 Performance $99k
December (40% tariff): Base S $113k. Max X $171k. Model 3 LR AWD $78k. Performance $86k.

At 25% tariffs, China used to be a c.20k S&X annual market for Tesla. It is likely larger at the current lower pricing. So on Model S&X alone, the 25% tariff cut could add $400m-500m to 2019 net profit.

I was under the impression that Tesla would go back to June pricing if the tariff went back to that level. That being said that pricing is still lower than May pricing.

 

[dw4ngg]

Porsche claims that 50% of all Taycan reservation holder come from Tesla and if they all transform into orders they will be sold out for 1 year.

Claus Zeller, Porsche NA, Quote "“Normalerweise, wenn wir den Ursprung unseres Geschäfts betrachten, dann kommen die Leute von Marken wie Audi, BMW oder Mercedes. In diesem Fall ist die Nummer-Eins-Marke Tesla.”

Its been said that Porsche wants to tripple production capacity for the Taycan which was before 20k so now we talk about 60 units p.a..

If its 50% from previous or existing Tesla owners than that would mean between 10 - 30k Tesla owner made a reservation.

Although I do not have a doubt that the Taycan will sell and attract people I do have my doubts that this numbers are correct. Porsche has no history of being very accurate in their statements and no one can validate them.

Finally the narrative that the amount of people attracted to EVs is limited and manufacturers need to compete against each other to get enough demand is a misconception of the reality that +80 m car buyers every year will over time transform to EV so where is the case that the few people owning an EV today are the main target?

Porsche Taycan lockt viele Tesla-Kunden - ecomento.de

Porsche will get initial demand. The question is whether their EV engineering can surpass their branding draw as compared to Tesla. Which I doubt. But there will def be demand.. it’s a nice looking car.

 

[avoigt]

IMHO, I'm willing to give Porsche the benefit of the doubt here. They've been one of the most responsible with their claims thusfar... e.g. not pushing on the whole "Tesla Killer" meme. They seem to understand the critical importance of efficiency, of charge rates, etc, etc toward making a good EV. They've not been using misleading ads like Jaguar. In general, they've been the sort of "proper competition" that I want to see. They also have the second highest consumer satisfaction in the industry (after Tesla).

My only issue is that I still can't explain their "350kW charging" thing. I have several theories**, each with its own set of repercussions (mostly "not good", but some worse than others). We'll see which turns out to be true.

** Some unique way of preventing damage others haven't discovered (very unlikely); some mass-produced "super batteries" that have both high energy density *and* high C-rates, which nobody else in any industry has or even has any clue of (exceedingly unlikely); letting users fry their cells, on the notion that they won't be doing it often (quite possible); large chunks of the pack lopped off on the top and the bottom, so the C rate isn't actually as high as it looks to the driver (quite possible); having 350kW be "aspirational", but starting lower with the first gen, say 150kW (quite possible).

I am a former Porsche customer and my customer satisfaction rating is not that high but I do agree they have world class engineers, have been the first truly acknowledging and appreciating what Tesla has achieved and have so far shown a compelling EV that will attract buyers for sure.

In the below video which is in German you find a section (14:30 m) where Engineers testing a group of Taycan talk about Battery and charging. Let me translate the important parts:

Chief Engineer Maier:

• -"Battery losing performance has mainly to do with them operating frequent into a too warm or too cold condition"
• "you can accelerate the vehicle 10 times 0-100 (km/h) with the value we will tell and that will be a very good value"
• " you can accelerate that vehicle 4 times 0-200 km/h without that, we at any point get into a problem of performance"
• Porsche is certain that with the above statements they can outpace Tesla. They also want to beat Tesla with quality

At that point the group of Taycan had to stop aside the road and one of the cars had to reboot because of technical issues....

Minute 38:20 gives interesting insights into the Taycan.

• "we will be the first ones that will be with the vehicle on a 800V rate that will half in a first nearing the charging time and that is in my view the large game changer (39:30m)
• "the Taycan uses the first time charging performance of almost 300 KW" Please note that he does not speak about 350 KW

Also some interesting insights about Byton at the end of the video...

The entire as such video with an former injured employee arguing to heavy work load and bad worker protecting and they don't not care as well as the former German Tesla manager who left as well as the German family traveling to Italy with their S has been designed to make Tesla look like still ahead but somehow bad and BTW the Germans will outpace Tesla very soon.

Finally I know how Porsche pronounces Taycan ....

 

[Buckminster]

Daimler is buying over $20 billion in battery cells to support electric vehicle plans
Electrek for those that can't stand Fred anymore...

 

[anthonyj]

Going to help bust down that wall today

 

[Driver Dave]

I am a former Porsche customer and my customer satisfaction rating is not that high but I do agree they have world class engineers, have been the first truly acknowledging and appreciating what Tesla has achieved and have so far shown a compelling EV that will attract buyers for sure.

In the below video which is in German you find a section (14:30 m) where Engineers testing a group of Taycan talk about Battery and charging. Let me translate the important parts:

Chief Engineer Maier:

• -"Battery losing performance has mainly to do with them operating frequent into a too warm or too cold condition"
• "you can accelerate the vehicle 10 times 0-100 (km/h) with the value we will tell and that will be a very good value"
• " you can accelerate that vehicle 4 times 0-200 km/h without that, we at any point get into a problem of performance"
• Porsche is certain that with the above statements they can outpace Tesla. They also want to beat Tesla with quality

At that point the group of Taycan had to stop aside the road and one of the cars had to reboot because of technical issues....

Minute 38:20 gives interesting insights into the Taycan.

• "we will be the first ones that will be with the vehicle on a 800V rate that will half in a first nearing the charging time and that is in my view the large game changer (39:30m)
• "the Taycan uses the first time charging performance of almost 300 KW" Please note that he does not speak about 350 KW

Also some interesting insights about Byton at the end of the video...

The entire as such video with an former injured employee arguing to heavy work load and bad worker protecting and they don't not care as well as the former German Tesla manager who left as well as the German family traveling to Italy with their S has been designed to make Tesla look like still ahead but somehow bad and BTW the Germans will outpace Tesla very soon.

Finally I know how Porsche pronounces Taycan ....

I will never buy a Porsche Taycan because:

* Go back to dealers skimming money off the deal??? Never.
* Go back to no tech updates??? I don't think Porsche or any car company will be able to handle the tech infrastructure involved.
* Go back to cramped, confining interior with all .. those .. knobs. Ug.
* No changing network. Have to go to dealer to charge??? What so they can up-charge you maintenance every time you charge?
* They should be punished for their scam emissions code. (And I was a long time VW huge fan)
* With everything they've been up against, to still put out a product this good, Tesla deserves my support for many many many many years.

 

[Driver Dave]

I purchased my P85D back in May and it never fails to make me smile. I’ve purchased many luxury/sports cars before this:

370z
2014 435i
2015 Porsche Macan
2016 640i
2016 Porsche Macan (awesome car lol)
2016 BMW i3
2017 Mercedes c43 AMG
2018 BMW M2

And now the Tesla... keep in mind that I am 25 years old. I really don’t understand why I never gave Tesla a chance. Maybe FUD was embedded into my subconscious? No clue.

The purchasing experience was great. Usually when I ask for a test drive at a new dealership they would be hesitant since I’m a young guy. No questions asked they put me in a P100D and let me abuse it. Bought a CPO P85D the next day since the price was irresistible and was basically brand new.

My brother tried to talk me out of it. He had hatred for the brand, saying the quality was crap and range was a lie. Basically almost said he wouldn’t talk to me if I bought one lol.

Anyway, two days after picking up my P85D, he tried to one-up me and bought the new E400 Coupe. I drove him to pick it up, and engaged autopilot. He was clearly impressed but wouldn’t admit it.

Fast forward 6 months later he’s trading in that 2018 E400 and buying a Tesla. He also wants to buy shares in the company. Lol. Do I really need to say more?

One day I’ll regret not buying more shares at $365...
Buying $690 strike 2021 calls in the morning. Basically betting on FSD to be released between now and then.

Everyone who buys a Tesla...
then goes and buys shares.

I always said to my short minded friends: You are talking nonsense, go buy one.

 

[Todd Burch]

Wonder if we're going to see that +6/+7 drop closer to zero before open, like yesterday.

 

[Pezpunk]

* Go back to no tech updates??? I don't think Porsche or any car company will be able to handle the tech infrastructure involved.

eh, i think they can, and i think they and every other car company will inevitably, within 5 years. just too obvious of a next step to ignore.

agreed 100% on all other points, though!

 

[Tslynk67]

Wonder if we're going to see that +6/+7 drop closer to zero before open, like yesterday.

I think not... for once, macro looks good. Feels squeezy to me...

 

[X Fan]

Porsche will get initial demand. The question is whether their EV engineering can surpass their branding draw as compared to Tesla. Which I doubt. But there will def be demand.. it’s a nice looking car.

Agreed....Porsche has a very loyal customer base.

My guess their buyers will come from affluent communities where long distance driving is not needed, ie Naples.

Having said that, they will need to "disfigure" their beautiful homes with charging stations since the local Porsche dealer will probably only have one & that could be a limiter to sales.

So, we'll see.....

 

[Mkorpal]

Going to help bust down that wall today
View attachment 360056

You need to charge your phone!

 

[SW2Fiddler]

It’s an improvement in the car’s aesthetic appeal.

When you have to Jed Clampett the *sugar* out of it.

 

[mongo]

eh, i think they can, and i think they and every other car company will inevitably, within 5 years. just too obvious of a next step to ignore.

agreed 100% on all other points, though!

If it considered service, many US franchise laws prevent OEMs from doing it...

@Driver Dave
Also, Porsche has no Atari. Or drawing app...
(one may laugh, but I was sad once I ran out of things our new SUV could do....)

 

[Fact Checking]

OT Market Action:

Macros are looking good so far today, both NASDAQ futures and DOW futures are showing solid gains of about +0.5% compared to yesterday's close, on relatively high contract volumes.

Dollar also appears to be weakening a bit, a sign of risk-off optimism regarding the U.S. economy. $TSLA is tagging along, on low volume pre-market trading. Recent housing data and noises from the Fed were certainly encouraging in a 'no recession yet' fashion.

But as usual this could turn on a dime by market open.

Macro, in particular NASDAQ and Dow futures continue to be good: +1.2% right now. The dollar remains mostly flat.

$TSLA more than tagged along with NASDAQ: it is maybe even a bit ahead of NASDAQ in pre-market trading that is a bit heavier in volume than usual - but not exceptionally heavy. $TSLA looks set to open around $370 - barring last-minute pre-market shenanigans.

 

[Unpilot]

I hope you all have your seat belts on and tray tables in the upright position!

 

[kbM3]

IMHO, I'm willing to give Porsche the benefit of the doubt here. They've been one of the most responsible with their claims thusfar... e.g. not pushing on the whole "Tesla Killer" meme. They seem to understand the critical importance of efficiency, of charge rates, etc, etc toward making a good EV. They've not been using misleading ads like Jaguar. In general, they've been the sort of "proper competition" that I want to see. They also have the second highest consumer satisfaction in the industry (after Tesla).

My only issue is that I still can't explain their "350kW charging" thing. I have several theories**, each with its own set of repercussions (mostly "not good", but some worse than others). We'll see which turns out to be true.

** Some unique way of preventing damage others haven't discovered (very unlikely); some mass-produced "super batteries" that have both high energy density *and* high C-rates, which nobody else in any industry has or even has any clue of (exceedingly unlikely); letting users fry their cells, on the notion that they won't be doing it often (quite possible); large chunks of the pack lopped off on the top and the bottom, so the C rate isn't actually as high as it looks to the driver (quite possible); having 350kW be "aspirational", but starting lower with the first gen, say 150kW (quite possible).

My theory is low energy density and high C rate (expensive) cells.

Deconted base model + expensive options.

 

[Krugerrand]

I finally watched the 60 Minutes interview last night. Everything has already been said up in the thread, but I have a small anecdote.

My wife was sitting next to me and doing her own thing. She knows about Tesla and Elon and the mission (after all, I persuaded her to stretch our budget for investment 2 years ago and now for LR M3 AWD ), but doesn't follow actively. Halfway through the interview she looked up and said "Gosh, that woman is petty. Doesn't get the full picture at all.".

She did get also a little bit worried about working conditions at Tesla, but I explained those are empty accusations that haven't been proven yet and some dismissed by regulators.

Tiny sample, but maybe more "lay-people" had the same reaction.

My lay-person (does own a 3 thanks to my sales skills, but not a rabid follower) texted me right after the interview and simply said, ‘interesting’. Haven’t had a chance to ‘talk’ and get a definition of ‘interesting’.

Ok, it wasn’t my sales skills, it was the greatness of the car.

 

[nursebee]

yawn