TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[jelloslug]

That was a people problem - specifically, the people in all the other non-NUMMI plants refused to adapt to the Toyota way, and GM couldn't force it without their co-operation, and gave up. You could I suppose blame management for not following through and making it happen, but when it comes down to it, if the local UAW didn't want to do it, it wasn't happening.

It was also a supplier problem. You can’t strive for trouble free cars when the parts you are making them out of are garbage.

 

[Richard007]

170M shares outstanding:

+25% held by insiders = 42m

+61% held by institutions = 103m

+10% hard core believers? =17M

That’s 162 million shares tied up.

Leaves 8M shares outstanding. Not much. Which is why think the stock can go up very quickly.

If you look at Netflix, 85% of the shares outstanding are owned by institutions. If institutions move on tesla, there will be virtually no shares available to trade. Don’t sell or lend your shares!

Maybe hitting $1,500 a share in 2020 is lowballing it. Maybe $2,500 (which will be easier to swallow if the stock splits). Solar and battery storage could be big. Trucks, pick-up trucks, and who knows what else. Just wishful thinking for an early and big retirement!

 

[Waiting4M3]

170M shares outstanding:

+25% held by insiders = 42m

+61% held by institutions = 103m

+10% hard core believers? =17M

That’s 162 million shares tied up.

Leaves 8M shares outstanding. Not much. Which is why think the stock can go up very quickly.

If you look at Netflix, 85% of the shares outstanding are owned by institutions. If institutions move on tesla, there will be virtually no shares available to trade. Don’t sell or lend your shares!

Maybe hitting $1,500 a share in 2020 is lowballing it. Maybe $2,500 (which will be easier to swallow if the stock splits). Solar and battery storage could be big. Trucks, pick-up trucks, and who knows what else. Just wishful thinking for an early and big retirement!

The institutions will probably cash out some if/when price appreciate significantly. For the same reason that today's share price is not representative of long term share prices, today's # of available shares isn't representative of long term share price either.

 

[Richard007]

Yes true but more institutions will come in. I think many will see longer term value. Hopefully!

 

[Causalien]

I certainly agree with this. Tesla will sell every car it can make for the next decade even if China is stagnant at 15%. This is why I think opening a plant in Europe first might be prudent. If our IP is that good, then we should skip China for now, unless they relax on regulations. If no plans get worked out by November, it’s time to move on.

I would not pick Germany, based on their 4 day work week it would not work. Maybe Greece since manufactures are needed there?

Ya. Looks like the solution is to keep China Model S and Mode X only for the luxury market. Even with the coming tariff mark up, if you are considered luxury and exclusive, the Chinese will still buy. Or... find a country that doesn't have tariff with China. Establish factory there and ship the product in. Like what others are doing through Canada and Mexico to get into USA. But with how high profile Tesla is. I doubt this will work.

Wait what? You only work for 4 days in Germany?

 

[bambam4171]

Look at this beautiful picture, now if that does not look like a ramp I don't know what does.
Model 3 Invites #2 (There are two identical files to avoid the 100 users limit)

320 should be doable next week provided we don't get any other horror stories this low double digit TSLA shareholder thinks.

 

[Cobos]

Ya. Looks like the solution is to keep China Model S and Mode X only for the luxury market. Even with the coming tariff mark up, if you are considered luxury and exclusive, the Chinese will still buy. Or... find a country that doesn't have tariff with China. Establish factory there and ship the product in. Like what others are doing through Canada and Mexico to get into USA. But with how high profile Tesla is. I doubt this will work.

Wait what? You only work for 4 days in Germany?

My friends in Germany seems to be working 5 days a week, but I'm not very sure about the specifics.
In Norway though fridays are very nice rush hour days since there are about 20-30% less cars on the road and hence no rush hour. Normal work week is still 37,5h in Norway and I think it's the same in Germany. Though people look at a 60h work week as something you need to do in the US to get ahead, while in Norway and I believe Germany that is illegal.

Cobos

 

[Tslynk67]

170M shares outstanding:

+25% held by insiders = 42m

+61% held by institutions = 103m

+10% hard core believers? =17M

That’s 162 million shares tied up.

Leaves 8M shares outstanding. Not much. Which is why think the stock can go up very quickly.

If you look at Netflix, 85% of the shares outstanding are owned by institutions. If institutions move on tesla, there will be virtually no shares available to trade. Don’t sell or lend your shares!

Maybe hitting $1,500 a share in 2020 is lowballing it. Maybe $2,500 (which will be easier to swallow if the stock splits). Solar and battery storage could be big. Trucks, pick-up trucks, and who knows what else. Just wishful thinking for an early and big retirement!

This is also something I've been thinking about. Let's imagine a hypothetical situation where Tesla shares become so desirable that nobody wants to sell, but the company, say, is "worth" 5x current situation. How would that capitalisation be realised then? Issuing new shares?

I suppose it only takes one person to trade 1 shares, asking $1k, then that resets the SP, right?

Apologies if this is an absolutely basic question.

 

[mmd]

170M shares outstanding:

+25% held by insiders = 42m

+61% held by institutions = 103m

+10% hard core believers? =17M

That’s 162 million shares tied up.

Leaves 8M shares outstanding. Not much. Which is why think the stock can go up very quickly.

If you look at Netflix, 85% of the shares outstanding are owned by institutions. If institutions move on tesla, there will be virtually no shares available to trade. Don’t sell or lend your shares!

Maybe hitting $1,500 a share in 2020 is lowballing it. Maybe $2,500 (which will be easier to swallow if the stock splits). Solar and battery storage could be big. Trucks, pick-up trucks, and who knows what else. Just wishful thinking for an early and big retirement!

Nice dream. But may be you should add 28M shares to the long base too.
https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/short-interest

 

[sundaymorning]

Ya. Looks like the solution is to keep China Model S and Mode X only for the luxury market. Even with the coming tariff mark up, if you are considered luxury and exclusive, the Chinese will still buy. Or... find a country that doesn't have tariff with China. Establish factory there and ship the product in. Like what others are doing through Canada and Mexico to get into USA. But with how high profile Tesla is. I doubt this will work.

Wait what? You only work for 4 days in Germany?

For the next two years 2.5 million auto workers will enjoy 28 hour work weeks in Germany. Which is the equivalent of 3.5 days per week (not four as stated above but I rounded up). After that they will return to 35 hour work week, which is the equivalent of 4.4 days/ week. This is counting 8 hours per day like the USA.

Germany has the strongest economy Europe thanks in part to their strong auto industry.

German workers win right to 28-hour week

 

[bambam4171]

Though people look at a 60h work week as something you need to do in the US to get ahead, while in Norway and I believe Germany that is illegal.

60h/weeks are nothing to talk about unless you only have those. I've been working 100h weeks for months to ensure a 300 million deal does not go sour and I'm just a project manager. During all that time I've reported 40h work/week and I know many that do it this way.

 

[Cobos]

For the next two years 2.5 million auto workers will enjoy 28 hour work weeks in Germany. Which is the equivalent of 3.5 days per week (not four as stated above but I rounded up). After that they will return to 35 hour work week, which is the equivalent of 4.4 days/ week. This is counting 8 hours per day like the USA.

Germany has the strongest economy Europe thanks in part to their strong auto industry.

German workers win right to 28-hour week

Yes this seems like fairly standard. They can choose to work 30 h and get paid for 30h or work 35 or 40 and get paid more. As most benefits in Europe scale with hours this is just a slight administrative overhead for the company. 2 people working 30h or one working 60h. Without paying health benefits it more or less evens out. Norway has been talking of going down to 30h week with full compensation for the lost 7h that is expensive.

Cobos

 

[Tslynk67]

Tesla Semi secures large order of 50 electric trucks from a truck renting and leasing company

 

[Words of HABIT]

What a week! Back from the great abyss! psychologically it would have been nice to end above $300 (never thought I'd be happy to see $300 again). Remember that this is but a blip in the space time continuum.

Hard to believe we reached SP levels not seen since mid 2014, before MX production, Tesla Energy, Solar City acquisition, M3 production, Semi reveal, next gen Roadster reveal , MY talks, SpaceX reusing rockets, and don't even get me started on not a flamethrower and Teslaquila. Mid 2014, when Tesla had one product, the MS, selling at 1500/month. Not week, but month.

Beginning of last week many TMCers were calling for even lower price/per share (how many of us actually bought at sub $250?). Now with a 3 day run up of 20% TMCers are again calling for $1500, $2000 yes and even $5,000 in the not to distant future. Let's try to stay grounded. Focus. ATH of $386 once 5000/wk M3 has been confirmed, July, August, September? As a TSLA shareholder I also look forward to sustained quarterly profitability which should come when Tesla reaches 5,000/wk M3.

Daniel

 

[AudubonB]

170M shares outstanding:

+25% held by insiders = 42m

+61% held by institutions = 103m

+10% hard core believers? =17M

That’s 162 million shares tied up.

Leaves 8M shares outstanding. Not much. Which is why think the stock can go up very quickly.

If you look at Netflix, 85% of the shares outstanding are owned by institutions. If institutions move on tesla, there will be virtually no shares available to trade. Don’t sell or lend your shares!

Maybe hitting $1,500 a share in 2020 is lowballing it. Maybe $2,500 (which will be easier to swallow if the stock splits). Solar and battery storage could be big. Trucks, pick-up trucks, and who knows what else. Just wishful thinking for an early and big retirement!

Let me try to inject some many decades of institutional investor experience into this, with the hope of tempering a bit of the overexuberance that's absolutely to have been expected after the past two weeks.

I see that ownership distribution and think: There are 103 million shares that are subject to -

• Quarterly fund performance reports. High-profile holdings like TSLA definitely are prime window-dressing targets.
• Redemptions by unhappy fund holders. Any such cash calls must come from somewhere.
• "Free" money to the institutions from lending shares. Although not all funds are allowed to lend, most are and some hold it their fiduciary obligation to do so.

This post is, I hope, the only wet blanket I'll provide for the weekend. For years, a common thread running through Investors' posts has been that there is something sacrosanct about institutional ownership. This has not been the case for about a half-century. The dual development both of the mutual fund industry and employee pensions becoming a factor in stock ownership has meant that institutions are the stock market. Tangentially, by the way, this is the reason one reads, again and again, how fund managers don't beat the market. They can't, as it's a tautology: they are the market...with the additional burden of management fees that are a further thumb on the performance scale. But I'm getting off track. Have a great weekend, all.

 

[Mkorpal]

Tesla Semi secures large order of 50 electric trucks from a truck renting and leasing company

The Semi can't get here fast enough.

 

[larmor]

The Semi can't get here fast enough.

Agreed and really they should only be building the high end model 3s and really push that Roadster... This is a public company and profits will come higher margin products...

 

[Mkorpal]

Agreed and really they should only be building the high end model 3s and really push that Roadster... This is a public company and profits will come higher margin products...

I'm fine with the high margin Model 3s right now, but I do want them to get the standard range going by the end of the year. It would be bad PR to promise a 35k base model, have thousands of people put up a grand to reserve it, and just never build it.

 

[avoigt]

Ya. Looks like the solution is to keep China Model S and Mode X only for the luxury market. Even with the coming tariff mark up, if you are considered luxury and exclusive, the Chinese will still buy. Or... find a country that doesn't have tariff with China. Establish factory there and ship the product in. Like what others are doing through Canada and Mexico to get into USA. But with how high profile Tesla is. I doubt this will work.

Wait what? You only work for 4 days in Germany?

No, not true. People work way more here! 5 days is standard and that includes late Friday evening. Managers usually also work at weekends. There is a standard 30 days vacation and a lot of bank holidays and all of those needs to be financed.

There is a combination out here of killing yourself for your employer combined with continuous pressure on high productivity. But that’s a topic that does not belong here....

 

[Yggdrasill]

A lot of people don't work that much: Employment - Hours worked - OECD Data

Though for full time employees, Germany seems to be about average: How many hours do Europeans work per week?