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MacRocket
Faster than Falcon 9
Yes they are exciting times aren’t they, not only for Tesla but for the planet.
I had been reigned for many years that we as a civilisation are doomed.
With Elon & Co’s Good work I am now quite hopeful that a turnaround will be quite a lot quicker than most people think. How we get sustainable has been solved, we just have to do it.
Isn’t it nice to help the planet by investing in TSLA and at the same time accelerate TSLA longs path towards sustainable comfortable retirement
I couldn’t have said it better! Exactly how I am thinking about this too.
Bet TSLA
Active Member
Well, I bought 100 shares at 249.31 on 4/2, just so I could say I did. It makes essentially no difference to my holdings (I'm way long), but it felt like the right thing to do.
stef
Member
I picked 20 at 304... go and laugh, I don't care.
MacRocket
Faster than Falcon 9
Not laughing, I bought in for an average of $342 six months ago, I still consider this cheap for this company.
Bought 85 shares at $258 last week, a steal, dropped my average buy in price by $12, I’m stoked but also wanted to support Tesla.
stef
Member
Not laughing at all, just took the sale. I had bought 2 weeks ago at 304 as well thinking that was the sale... doesn’t matter, long term they all are cheap buys.
When the stock will nosedive from $2480 down to abysmal $1730 because some semis will be recalled on possible suspension failure, we will brag how we managed to grab some at $1740 and feel all proud.
When the stock plunged from $190 down to $120 in 2013 there were those who felt bad because they bought in at $130.
It is all nonsense.
What matters is is TSLA still on right course? You bet, 1T valuation is fast approaching.
TSLA will become a monopoly and will be forced to split some decades after Elon settles in Mars presidency.
Those who do not buy in this view point are called weak longs and should abandon this ship as soon as possible. The pains that are coming their way will be plenty and hard. Future FUD attacks, legal actions and what-have-you will all be much stronger than what can those 10B that are short now can afford.
In past the competition ignored and laughed. Now they start to fear and fight. They will fight with all they have because all is what they will loose if they do not fight. Utilities do not fight yet, big oil is not really fighting yet, politics is not really fighting Tesla yet.
Will Tesla win? No.
Elon will.
When the stock plunged from $190 down to $120 in 2013 there were those who felt bad because they bought in at $130.
It is all nonsense.
What matters is is TSLA still on right course? You bet, 1T valuation is fast approaching.
TSLA will become a monopoly and will be forced to split some decades after Elon settles in Mars presidency.
Those who do not buy in this view point are called weak longs and should abandon this ship as soon as possible. The pains that are coming their way will be plenty and hard. Future FUD attacks, legal actions and what-have-you will all be much stronger than what can those 10B that are short now can afford.
In past the competition ignored and laughed. Now they start to fear and fight. They will fight with all they have because all is what they will loose if they do not fight. Utilities do not fight yet, big oil is not really fighting yet, politics is not really fighting Tesla yet.
Will Tesla win? No.
Elon will.
I see Tesla getting into water transport and air travel in next 5 to 10 years. Boring company looks to be natural merger target for Tesla. So cars, boats,planes, energy , infrastructure, hyperloop may be?
Tesla/ Elon may be better off keeping Boring a separate entity that is a customer of Tesla. Then it stays private and has less financial impact. Boring will need some level of capital raise/ debt to get the first tunnels installed and operational.
Reciprocity
Active Member
This is what shorts don't get. There is an army of supporters that are willing to look past some of the blemishes to see the bigger picture. There seems to be a fairly large contingent that will add shares as money becomes available from now until the mission is complete. This could take decades so getting shares at $1000 is going to seem cheap at some point.
Because of the small float and because die hard supporters keep buying the stock, it helps keep institutional investors in the game. It's important to note that this support could fade if Tesla misses to many deadlines. To me Tesla's bigger issue is not missing deadlines, its in the messaging. Tesla originally targeted 2020 for 500,000 model 3s per year before pulling forward GF1 and model 3 by 18 months and they should exceed that goal by -3 months maybe 6- and exit 2019 at the 500,000 pace to hit that goal. You cannot grow a multi billion dollar company 50% every year for decade without doing something right and meeting realistic deadlines and I think this growth rate is only going to accelerate over the next couple of years at a minimum and if the economy doesn't collapse, it could continue for a decade or more. Even if competition is able to metastasis in any meaningful way, that is not a death knell for Tesla, it actually supports everything Tesla is trying to accomplish and at the same time will expand the addressable market for Tesla.
The fact is that it was impossible for any company to pull forward this kind of product ramp by 18 mo. But you wont hear anyone say that today. Not FUDsters, not legitimate press. Not anyone associated with Tesla. But the fact remains that Tesla is ahead of that original schedule, but you would think they were about to go bankwupt if you read mainstream media sources and believed everything.
At the end of the day, the stock will go up and it will go down, but the long term trend is for massive upside. Only some kind of black swan even could stop Tesla at this point. Tesla has proven over a decade that it can over deliver at the end of the day, even if they miss some ridiculous timelines that Tesla and only Tesla believe are possible. They laughed at Elon when he said 20,000 model Ss and Bob Lutz said the Model X was not manufacturable. The same Bob Lutz who is not a exactly a hater of batteries in cars mind you. Granted he is an old, arrogant windbag, but the Volt is pretty amazing vehicle in its own right though I believe all Hybrids at this point are just half measures that are crappy at two things instead of being very good at one, but I digress.
This stock is not going to make your rich over night and it might make you lose your lunch a few times in the process, but its one of the best long term investments. The idea that Competitors had the ability to make better vehicles and just sat on it for the last decade while Tesla stole their lunch in the large luxury sedan market is beyond ridiculous. Sure competitors have tons of resources, but they are not growing at 50% a year and their stock holders are not so willing to watch them lose money while they grope around the dark to find a clue. That growth rate that Tesla has hides a lot of warts that can occur with a company growing that fast. Investors are willing to pay for growth and will put up with a lot as long as that growth persists. You dont have to be a big time financial analyst to see the path of growth potential. With Model 3 at 2000/w Tesla has already increased production by 100% in terms of units and 50% in terms of revenues, in just the first quarter alone, 25% improvement in revenue and 50% improvement in unites over last quarter. Its April.. You think Tesla can get to 4000/w by the end of the year? I would bet my house, but im not going to do that and that is not an advice. But FUDsters would have you believe that was utter failure, though it would continue the decade long 50+% CAGR. Going from 4k/w to 8k/w next year would also be considered a failure, but it would still be 50% growth. I expect Tesla to exceed these targets and I expect them to start delivering the Model Y and Semi very late next year with a tiny bit smoother ramp then the Model 3 and Model X before it.
At some point, TE is going to start contributing to that growth in a way that will be measurable. If you can sell 1000 roofs a week like the ones they recently showed on Eletrek, that would be equivalent to the revenues from model S. I know 1000/w seems like a lot, but there are 5 million new roofs per year in the US alone. Traditional solar can go on top of a lot of those roofs and the glass roof is not really viable for the $200,000 average home price. But with 5M to cherry pick 1000/w or just 1% per year, you will find homes where it makes sense and the solar files are the ONLY option. If you have Spanish tile and an association that requires Spanish tile and your house faces south and you own 2 electric cars for example... Your going to get Tesla roof tiles, or your going to be over paying for electricity at a rate that would have paid for the roof. These homes are all over the place in SoCal and the average home price for these types of homes is more then $500,000, which would justify a 30 year solar roof at $100,000. I was border line and if the Solar roof was available, last year and a big hailstorm would have come through, I would have definitely put on a solar roof. In a past life, I was a roofer and I always wanted a slate roof that matches those slate tiles Elon showed. Slate with some copper accents. Its so awesome when it tarnishes and turns a million shades of green. Dont sleep on the solar roof, its a juggernaut and I believe it could be easier to manufacture then traditional panels with the help of Grohmann. Laminating a glass sandwich with a solar cell in the middle is not rocket surgery. Making glass tiles is not complicated either, its a very easy material to work with and the raw materials are abundant and cheap as well. Not that it will all be sunshine and daisies, because Tesla needs to automate the manufacture of a billion tiles at a very high rate and quality. I also want to be clear here, that the Solar roof is going to be a higher margin product then traditional panels. They are an upscale, premium product. This is not asphalt shingles where a dozen companies make them in high volumes and they are commodities.
In terms of traditional panels, I think Tesla's biggest customer will be Tesla. They need several Gigawatts a year for super and mega chargers. Certainly, you will be able to get an all Tesla setup for home with traditional panels and they will be great panels (I just bought 29 of those Panasonic HIT 330W panels which should be pretty close to what you will get from Tesla and Panasonic from GF2.) But I could see Tesla consuming half of what they make in GF2 and at least a GWh/Y of batteries to go with it.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Good long-term thinking. We’d have to deep dive into each one to properly value them, but for now, I agree with Elon’s $1T market cap in ten years estimate.
That’s 35% annualized return for ten years.
That’s better than Warren Buffett.
bambam4171
Member
Has anyone calculated how much Tesla will save once they switch the cars from current telephone providers to Starlink? That is quite a bit of reoccurring cost that could turn into income (even if for Starlink)
One of my favourite Musk quotes is:
"I don't know what a business is. All a company is is a bunch of people together to create a product or service. There's no such thing as a business, just pursuit of a goal — a group of people pursuing a goal."
There was an article I can't seem to find again, it was a deep dive in the financial relationships between then Solarcity, Tesla, and SpaceX. Elon it's not stupid, he perfectly gets that cash is king, and that money is a necessary requirement for all his goals. Thus, he set up a complex flow of bonds, funding, customer-relationships between all his companies.
I think he will get some private funding for The Boring Comanpy, and he will use it as need to lend money to Tesla (the other way round is more complicated). I'm not an expert, but I think this is what will happen: keep it private, control it, and use it when it's needed for the other companies. His companies play a role in each other life, and he favors them being private, if he has the money to do what he wants.
I think a massive reforestation project worldwide is needed as well as a change in mindset. Governments are too slow.
Regarding this (sorry Mods, take it as weekend OT), let me cite myself:
Three Very Good Things You Can Do Now for the Environment
Ecosia is a search engine that plants trees with ad-revenue. It's a simple yet effective idea, they can scale, they are growing esponentially and will reach 25 million trees tomorrow night.
At the moment, their tree counter says that on average they're planting 1 tree every 1.1 seconds.
It's one of the best planting projects I've encountered so far.
I encourage you tro try/share it, it's Bing so it's worse than Google, but it's good enough for most queries.
Fabulous recommendation about Ecosia. Looks like a good search engine. I have made the switch.
bdy0627
Active Member
What's a good way to hedge TSLA calls for an overall market drop early this week? I bought SPY puts last Thursday for Friday and they paid great with the 5 point drop. However, when I look at prices now, puts are ridiculously expensive. At best you make about 250% for a 5 point move. That's not a very effective hedge given how much you would have to risk on it. Any suggestions? I don't have margin and haven't sold covered options.
Given that PUTS are expensive, and one shouldn't be selling Covered Calls at the bottom or just before a strong breakout, only other option might be to sit on some cash. ~ cheers!!
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