TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[SPadival]

One data point from Australia. My uncle bought a Model S after nearly 3 decades of Mercedes ownership!!

The car he is upgrading from is a CLS - I should mention to him that the first prototype was built on the CLS (as per Ashlee Vance biography of Musk)

 

[Artful Dodger]

Fun Fact: The volume-weighted average price (VWAP) for TSLA yesterday Wed, Dec 12, 2018 was $368.20

Current price in today's Pre-market: $368.22

Ahaha, jus' my 2 cents worth.

CH3ERS!

 

[Tslynk67]

Also 100,000+ Tesla investors, ex-employees with significant stock savings, not to mention risking a planet and the health and prosperity of its 7+ billion occupants by slowing down EV adoption.

Without Tesla the EV products from ICE makers would probably have even worse quality than today ...

Without Tesla there would be no EV's from ICE makers...

So, pre-market looking sleepy today, very low volume, unlike recently where it has shot up above 370. Maybe it will be stronger during market hours instead, we can but hope.

 

[avoigt]

I don't really know how I feel about this. In the end we are all small fish, tiny minnows, trying to swim with giant whales in a sea of blood. Some of the small fish bet the wrong way, some got lucky and bet the right way. The whales don't care if any of us live or die, they have rigged the ocean so they always win no matter what they do. He believed the wrong whales and got eaten. It could happen to any of us. If it was the opposite and the shorts ended up being right and we all lost everything, do you think it would have been any different?

Have some sympathy for your fellow minnows. Even the ones who literally bet against humanity's future. Because in the end, that's all we are.

We can fairly assume that many of the small fish shorts are in a similar situation as that poor fellow.

We have seen time where the FUD was that thick that even we here at the forum needed time to distinguish truth and accurate from lies and made up. For that this Forum has been and is just worth "Gold" and I mean that literally.

Many investors though have been trapped in a echo chamber about Tesla been doomed one way or another and after a while people get pulled into a situation where its not any more about the money alone but about yourself and your reputation within your friends, family, colleagues and loved ones. There is a point of no return where it does not matter if facts show that Tesla will do well because its very hard for people to acknowledge to themselves they have been wrong all the way and now change source. You need self confidence and some boldness to do that.

I expect there is a large group of shorts, bears any naysayers out there who are emotionally not able to make that confession to themselves and the world as it means to lose face and in their view respect from everybody. Those are the ones who will lose most.

Its sad that this happens to them but as an investor you should never fall in love with a stock and always remain open for the possibility regardless how small you call it that your assumptions and predictions are wrong.

Its an exhausting exercise to repeat that but a hard requirement for success. Thats why I call investing really hard work.

 

[avoigt]

Can someone explain how ARK can get to a $4000 future valuation.

• Is that something that is so far out there that it is completely unobtainable?
• Is it based on an assumption that revenue/earnings will grow 10x over the next several years and therefore stock will be up 10x
• Is ti based on an assumption of current earnings (4 profitable quarters) and the stock finally getting a PE ration of a "hi-tech" company given it's growth rate vs an automobile company?

I'm long TSLA but trying to get an understanding if i'm in for 200% gain or 10x gain over the next 5+ years.

Here you go:

(...) "Our $4,000 price target assumes that Tesla evolves from a hardware manufacturer with 19% gross margins to a company generating most of its profits from Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS), a business that we believe will enjoy 80% gross margins. In the $4,000 scenario, our assumptions are conservative: we incorporate profits only from cars and certain autonomous taxi networks, not from trucks, drones, utility scale energy storage, or the MaaS opportunity in China. Further, we incorporate the roughly $20 billion in dilution that might be necessary to penetrate and scale the latter four markets. Clearly, most asset managers in the public markets do not agree with us, which is why I’m writing to you now." (...)

Dear Elon: An Open Letter Against Taking Tesla Private - ARK Investment Management

 

[Tslynk67]

Hmmm, some sudden pre-market volume and there we are back to 371 again...

Have to say that across all the stocks I watch, not a lot of pre-market trades at this moment.

 

[Artful Dodger]

it looks like 372 is the real pivot point we want to breach just now

Imma call it right now: any close above $370.83 triggers the next gap up.

Based on technicals, the next resistance level is the June 18th closing price:



I'd expect the gap up to run to $385 (ATH close). Holding that SP depends when we hit it. If its too far above the upper BBs on the day, we'll trigger another big selloff into the spike in SP, which will tend to slump back to support at the $370ish SP.

If any move happens on good news and the Technicals support it, well we be rolling.

Let's ROLL!

CHE3RS!

 

[mongo]

OT

Tesla.com updated with once again M3 for delivery by December 31st. Also first time since the Model 3 has been out that its gotten the first/main slot on the Tesla.com homepage.

I think at this time they may be having trouble sustaining new orders in the US. Plenty of ways to rectify that tho by doing things like introducing leasing, pushing down the price and running ads.

Tesla's build rate is increasing, at the same time, they are depleating the reservation backlog for LR/MR. In my mind, it is a good thing for Tesla buyers that this is happening slightly before the tax credit phase step.
Next quarter, they start shipping overseas at 3k+ a week which will cut domestic availability. Quarterish after that, SR comes out.

I can't expect domestic order rate to ramp as quickly or to as high a number as the production rate.

(So tempting to get a Model 3)

 

[CaliBear1]

Lycanthrope, thanks for backing me in that Twitter exchange with Fed Zeppelin and his Luddite League of Idiots. I tried not to twist the knife, but nor was I going to give him a big sympathy bro hug!

Without Tesla there would be no EV's from ICE makers...

So, pre-market looking sleepy today, very low volume, unlike recently where it has shot up above 370. Maybe it will be stronger during market hours instead, we can but hope.

 

[avoigt]

And the next one:

Baird analyst Ben Kallo raised the price target on Tesla (NASDAQ: $TSLA) to $465.00 from $411.00

Vincent on Twitter

Tesla (TSLA) PT Raised to $465 at Baird; 'Changing Narrative'

 

[DriveMe]

I chatted with Robert Bollinger via DISQUS on this subject. He was unaware of Elon's standing offer to make the Tesla Supercharger network available to other OEMs. I suggested to Robert that he ask, and he did so via Twitter at 9:50 AM - 16 Aug 2018

Bollinger Motors on Twitter:

"@elonmusk Can we use your charging stations?"​

Unfortuately, Aug 16 was the day of the NY Times Interview hit-piece on Elon which cause TSLA to drop $20 overnight.

Since he was *busy* that day, Elon likely never saw the tweet from Robert Bollinger, who AFAICT has not tried again to make contact.

Oh well, his loss. And 1,000s of his Customer's loss too, since Bollinger doesn't have the resources on its own to build out a trans-continental DC Fast Charger network.

Cheers!

Tweeting is cool and all. But aren’t there better ways for one company to approach another?
If Robert Bollinger was truly interested in using the Supercharger network, wouldn’t he send an official letter to Tesla?

 

[AlexS]

And the next one:

Baird analyst Ben Kallo raised the price target on Tesla (NASDAQ: $TSLA) to $465.00 from $411.00

Vincent on Twitter

Tesla (TSLA) PT Raised to $465 at Baird; 'Changing Narrative'

Wow and shorts on twitter are screaming that analysts get paid by Tesla for upgrades. Unbelievable, the guys who started Tesla short cult are amazing in brainwashing.

 

[KarenRei]

Tweeting is cool and all. But aren’t there better ways for one company to approach another?
If Robert Bollinger was truly interested in using the Supercharger network, wouldn’t he send an official letter to Tesla?

That's what I wrote at the time. It's a very unprofessional way to approach business.

 

[sweter]

That's what I wrote at the time. It's a very unprofessional way to approach business.

Apparently it's often the most efficient way of pushing something through to Tesla

 

[KarenRei]

Apparently it's often the most efficient way of pushing something through to Tesla

Not really. It can be hard to get through to people with proper info at Tesla (I know this from experience), but your odds of randomly connecting on Twitter are like buying a lottery ticket.

 

[sweter]

Not really. It can be hard to get through to people with proper info at Tesla (I know this from experience), but your odds of randomly connecting on Twitter are like buying a lottery ticket.

Sure, sorry, I was just trying to be funny.

But it did prove to be most efficient for some people who had issues with service centers, as recently as yesterday ( Elon Musk on Twitter ).

And by saying "most efficient" I meant "most efficient from a list of massively inefficient options".

 

[winfield100]

OT
One way to get the feeling is to hang out here and obsess over all the great things that Tesla could do in the future and then factor in a 30% operating margin. Then remove a healthy margin for risk. I have tabulated all the good things here:
Dry powder / milestones

a bit of history, i started in the markets around 1980 -81 and owned and sold all of these except Dell,
If I had simply held on........
actual value of splits adjusted
MSFT $31,400/share (288:1)
CSCO $13,000/share (288:1)
AAPL $9,469/share (56:1)
Dell split (96:1)
AOL (128:1) (peaked a bit over $100/share)
I'm hanging on to TSLA for 30 more years at least, and think $4,000/share is a tad bit low, unless it's post split
1) Mars
2) moon base
3) neural link <--really need this one soonest for uploads
4) etc. (holy freakin' solar system!!)

 

[avoigt]

see, Tesla owners are all nuts and most of them are even investors...

 

[cheshire cat]

a bit of history, i started in the markets around 1980 -81 and owned and sold all of these except Dell,
If I had simply held on........
actual value of splits adjusted
MSFT $31,400/share (288:1)
CSCO $13,000/share (288:1)
AAPL $9,469/share (56:1)
Dell split (96:1)
AOL (128:1) (peaked a bit over $100/share)
I'm hanging on to TSLA for 30 more years at least, and think $4,000/share is a tad bit low, unless it's post split
1) Mars
2) moon base
3) neural link <--really need this one soonest for uploads
4) etc. (holy freakin' solar system!!)

Perhaps you could send me a contact for your pharmacist

 

[Buckminster]

OT

Tweeting is cool and all. But aren’t there better ways for one company to approach another?
If Robert Bollinger was truly interested in using the Supercharger network, wouldn’t he send an official letter to Tesla?

I would be amazed if Bollinger haven't approached Tesla formally.
I would be amazed if Tesla have not replied with:
Upfront payment of $x to pay for ~0.5% of the existing network plus upfront payment of $y to build out another ~0.5% of the supercharger network plus ongoing $z/kWh. Bollinger would go bankrupt if they paid this now.
Amortising by paying an increased cost per kWh would probably not be attractive to Bollinger owners and would not suit Tesla who are themselves in startup mode.