TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Carl Raymond]

OT:



The connector is specified by the standard, the charging when connected to a CCS vehicle is specified by the standard. However, does any of that preclude Tesla from doing something non-standard when connected to a Tesla?
Supercharger -> CCS car: standard
CCS charger-> Tesla car: standard
Supercharger-> Tesla car: whatever Tesla wants

That covers the physical situation, but I figured the issue was legal. Faced with a choice between supplying CCS adapters with cars and retrofitting all superchargers, the former seemed easier, especially if it's a tick a box optional extra with a small price attached. Given the easy path was not chosen, I assumed it was a choice not of their own volition.

 

[Artful Dodger]

UBS Labs video of their tear-down of a Tesla Model 3:

And yes their build-quality issues are based on the tear-down of a Model 3 built in 2017 Q4, even though this video was published 2 days ago.

Ah well, yeah, it's UBS: 'Potaters gonna Potate'.

Cheers!

 

[mongo]

OT

That covers the physical situation, but I figured the issue was legal. Faced with a choice between supplying CCS adapters with cars and retrofitting all superchargers, the former seemed easier, especially if it's a tick a box optional extra with a small price attached. Given the easy path was not chosen, I assumed it was a choice not of their own volition.

My understanding is that Superchargers are now required to have CCS and that CCS doesn't allow for adapters. So that, combined with the ratio of Supercharger stations to all present and future vehicle production (that would be a lot of adapters) pushes Tesla into a CCS compatible solution.

Supercharger conversion might not be so bad. Swap out the single cable interface for a double with docking switch (to eliminate extra contactors) and update the SW to talk CCS. Might even reuse the original pedestal HW in the US.

 

[M3Rider]

Fed Zeppelin on Twitter

Wow lol! I don’t feel bad for FUD spreaders and people who risk their life savings in a stock. We’re going to see a lot more sob stories soon. Can’t wait. (He’s also selling off his belongings on eBay, maybe Spiegel will help him out )

Edit: anddd I get blocked

I do not share the LOLs. Many can get carried away with investing and this is not fun at all when kids are part of the equation of whether a suicide is committed or not. I do not wish to see this happen. F.. the squeeze and I vote for an orderly shorts exit.

Q1 is going to be a big breakthrough though, high margin cars in Europe and China prioritized and energy expanding finally.

Regarding energy... So, my hail damaged roof and replacement. I waited from May to October to get solar panels removed so that roofing contractor can replace the roof. Now that it's done(city inspection took 2 months), I called Tesla today to schedule solar panels reinstall. They are telling me the earliest availability "for my region" is July 18, 2019. This is f..ing 7 months. Plus 6 on the front, that's over 1 year turn-around to get the roof replaced(btw, the contract you sign says that they have to complete the work in 60 days). This is over 1% of my life. I am pretty pissed right now. And even though the rep after my complaining said that they can calculate my loss of use and write me a check, still - I got the panels, so that I don't have to participate in burning coal for my electricity, it is not just about money.
I saw @neroden complain about service for his car and this is what's happening on the energy side. The rep said they are trying to hire more people and sorry and all that, but 1 year? I don't see how expansion/ramp up is going to be easy.

 

[EVNow]

Schwab will let you write calls against Leaps if you're allowed to do options spreads. (But I think Fidelity will too -- have they not given you permission to trade spreads?) I'm fine with Schwab's platform, though it's not good if you want to trade really fast. They do sell order flow so if you hate that, go to Interactive Brokers. IB has the best options commission rates IMO -- no "ticket fee" -- though you may be able to negotiate with Schwab or Fidelity to match IB's options rates (I did).

I'm in level 2. So no spreads for me yet.

The CSR who I got wasn't sure - and checked with someone else before saying Fidelity has chosen not to support covered calls using Leaps. I will call fidelity again and check to see if it has something to do with my level.

 

[Curt Renz]

What is correct interpretation of your post?
Ivo Robic made this at the time I was growing up, and 'Morgen' was popular colloquialism in ex-Yugoslavia, where Ivo (and I) come(s) from, for 'never gonna happen'.
I assume there is another interpretation that completely escapes me...

My post of the German song Morgen was intended as a humorous response to a post by avoigt, who is a German. I had assumed that only those who could understand German would get it. In his post avoigt implied that TSLA might quadruple in much less than the ten years suggested by an article he had linked.

The song is sung in German albeit as you note by a Croatian (Yugoslavian) singer. It was actually popular in America in 1959 and reached #13 on the pop chart. I remember it fondly.

The German word morgen translates into English as either morning or tomorrow. In the context of this song it translates as tomorrow. I was joking that the stock could quadruple tomorrow.

Thank you for sharing the information that morgen in your native language is a colloquialism for "never gonna happen".

The song begins:

Morgen, morgen
Morgen, morgen, lacht uns wieder das Gluck.
Gestern, gestern, liegt schon so weit zuruck,
War es auch eine schone, schone Zeit.

That translates to:

Tomorrow, tomorrow
Tomorrow, tomorrow, happiness will make us laugh again.
Yesterday, yesterday, is already so far back,
It was also a nice, beautiful time.

 

[McMountain]

May I dare to correct the mighty:

Last line is best translated as:
"Even if it was a beautiful, beautiful time".

 

[azaz]

Tesla.com updated with once again M3 for delivery by December 31st. Also first time since the Model 3 has been out that its gotten the first/main slot on the Tesla.com homepage.

I think at this time they may be having trouble sustaining new orders in the US. Plenty of ways to rectify that tho by doing things like introducing leasing, pushing down the price and running ads.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Fed Zeppelin on Twitter

Wow lol! I don’t feel bad for FUD spreaders and people who risk their life savings in a stock. We’re going to see a lot more sob stories soon. Can’t wait. (He’s also selling off his belongings on eBay, maybe Spiegel will help him out )

Edit: anddd I get blocked

I don't really know how I feel about this. In the end we are all small fish, tiny minnows, trying to swim with giant whales in a sea of blood. Some of the small fish bet the wrong way, some got lucky and bet the right way. The whales don't care if any of us live or die, they have rigged the ocean so they always win no matter what they do. He believed the wrong whales and got eaten. It could happen to any of us. If it was the opposite and the shorts ended up being right and we all lost everything, do you think it would have been any different?

Have some sympathy for your fellow minnows. Even the ones who literally bet against humanity's future. Because in the end, that's all we are.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Tesla's Supercharger cables are higher gauge (you can see that for yourself in the above pics, compare the cable thicknesses). As for the sockets, I don't know their structure, but but I suspect that they have a much more elaborate heat sink setup.

You're asking Tesla to violate the CCS standard, which specifies what currents are allowed in what conditions. I seriously doubt they're going to do that.



It is. V1 = 200A max, uncooled. V2 = 500A max, cooled.

So CCS does specify that to go over 200A you MUST use liquid cooled cables, and larger cables or other solutions are strictly forbidden? Or is that just the suggested / assumed path? If the requirement isn't "must be able to provide X for Y duration without more than Z temperature" specification of ability, but instead a requirement for a specific technology/construction for the cables themselves, then I assume someone owns a patent on something and is gonna get PAID.

So far I couldn't find anything concrete, just vague things like for example in the CCS wiki article that "To cope with these technical issues, the IEC TS 62196-3-1 is currently under development, which describes the requirements for high-power DC couplers including thermal sensing, cooling and silver plating of contacts." which implies that CCS v2 isn't set in stone yet anyways. It implies cooling is required, but it doesn't necessarily mean active liquid cooling versus just using enough mass that is heatsinked elsewhere... and could be interpreted as meaning that certain temperature requirements must be met (without specifying a single specific allowed solution).

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Tesla.com updated with once again M3 for delivery by December 31st. Also first time since the Model 3 has been out that its gotten the first/main slot on the Tesla.com homepage.

I think at this time they may be having trouble sustaining new orders in the US. Plenty of ways to rectify that tho by doing things like introducing leasing, pushing down the price and running ads.

They might also have had a slowdown from people thinking they've entirely lost the EV credit at this point (ignoring they might get the full if they get lucky with delivery before EOY) since a lot of FUD and even just plain misunderstanding has been around stating that the tax credit ends entirely at EOY vs starts to be reduced. So there was likely a rush to order by end of Nov, then those that couldn't just gave up indefinitely.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

UBS Labs video of their tear-down of a Tesla Model 3:

And yes their build-quality issues are based on the tear-down of a Model 3 built in 2017 Q4, even though this video was published 2 days ago.

Ah well, yeah, it's UBS: 'Potaters gonna Potate'.

Cheers!

Wow, they mix in positive and negative phrasing of things in a confusing way.

Like :
"HIGH VOLTAGE WIRING
FALLS 80%"

Which implies something has gone badly by 80%, but if you listen they're actually saying that there's less wiring in it vs other vehicles.

They then gloss over the concept of computing power for autonomy, coming to the right conclusion but describing it so poorly... not even mentioning that it is easily upgraded.

They then state that lack of Android Auto is bad (with no mention of CarPlay), and while I don't entirely disagree, they act like that alone makes the infotainment systems on both the BMW i3 and the Chevy Bolt better than the Model 3's, and ... they just aren't.

At least they actually mention that the car was built Q4 2017, but then fail to mention that cars are better now, instead acting like they haven't improved any.

It feels like the review would have been better per the actual results, but upon generating the video were forced to spin it negatively whenever possible by management...

 

[vwman111]

Can someone explain how ARK can get to a $4000 future valuation.

• Is that something that is so far out there that it is completely unobtainable?
• Is it based on an assumption that revenue/earnings will grow 10x over the next several years and therefore stock will be up 10x
• Is ti based on an assumption of current earnings (4 profitable quarters) and the stock finally getting a PE ration of a "hi-tech" company given it's growth rate vs an automobile company?

I'm long TSLA but trying to get an understanding if i'm in for 200% gain or 10x gain over the next 5+ years.

 

[Curt Renz]

Can someone explain how ARK can get to a $4000 future valuation.

• Is that something that is so far out there that it is completely unobtainable?
• Is it based on an assumption that revenue/earnings will grow 10x over the next several years and therefore stock will be up 10x
• Is ti based on an assumption of current earnings (4 profitable quarters) and the stock finally getting a PE ration of a "hi-tech" company given it's growth rate vs an automobile company?

I'm long TSLA but trying to get an understanding if i'm in for 200% gain or 10x gain over the next 5+ years.

CNBC - August 21: Tesla investor: I'll explain to the board how the stock could go to $4,000

 

[sundaymorning]

Haven't seen Chanos for a long time, why don't he show up?

Ever since Elon called him out for his firm’s malpractice in using FUD to attack Tesla on Twitter I feel that the news outlets are distancing themselves from Chanos because they realize how dirty and speedy he is. Not much he can say now that Tesla is profitable.

 

[Fact Checking]

I do not share the LOLs. Many can get carried away with investing and this is not fun at all when kids are part of the equation of whether a suicide is committed or not. I do not wish to see this happen. F.. the squeeze and I vote for an orderly shorts exit.

Why I don't share the LOLs either, we should not forget the other side of the story either:

• He is still calling Tesla a "cult stock", not realizing their true value. So the healing process of facing reality and his recovery is only partial.
• Shorts did very real damage to thousands of people already. The pressure from FUD and Wall Street triggered the June layoffs of 4,000 people at Tesla - many of whom have invested years of their career into the company. How many families faced financial trouble due to that?
• Tesla workers are putting in crazy work hours to prove the doubters wrong against all the odds. How many relationships broke up due to that?
• There's also the negative external effects of the FUD: the fires, the accidents, the executive turnover, the amplified negative news and lies spread about Tesla non-stop by shorts, often gleefully and maliciously even in that very Twitter thread. These activities to spread disinformation about Tesla are keeping quite a few people from buying Tesla products and are still keeping quite a few investors from investing in Tesla.
• After the March 2018 Moody's downgrade, helped along and cheered by shorts, Tesla faced real existential trouble: being a leveraged, financing based company both on the growth (corporate bonds) and on the customer side (solar bonds, auto leases) Tesla was particularly vulnerable to a "crisis of confidence", i.e. a bank run. Suppliers being worried about Tesla's solvency, amplified by relentless FUD, could have cut off the flow of key parts.

Personal casualties are always sad - but this onslaught of FUD is not a war Tesla started.

Nobody forced him to bet against and spread lies about a uniquely innovative company, which malicious acts could have contributed to tens of thousands of honest to earth workers losing their jobs and their retirement equity.

Not to mention tens of thousands of Tesla investors losing their investment.

I have a lot more sympathy for those who lost big when the crypto currency bubble burst - that was a Ponzi scheme run by professional conmen - not easy to see through. But to short a manufacturing company that tries to change the world?

So I think this kind of karma is well deserved, and the extent of damage his net worth suffered was caused by a string of many mistakes, of which shorting Tesla was only one.

 

[sundaymorning]

UBS Labs video of their tear-down of a Tesla Model 3:

And yes their build-quality issues are based on the tear-down of a Model 3 built in 2017 Q4, even though this video was published 2 days ago.

Ah well, yeah, it's UBS: 'Potaters gonna Potate'.

Cheers!

Never would I trust a financial company with “BS” in its name. How many times these guys threw BS FUD at us I’ve lost count.

 

[EVNow]

Why I don't share the LOLs either, we should not forget the other side of the story either:

• He is still calling Tesla a "cult stock", not realizing their true value. So the healing process of facing reality and his recovery is only partial.
• Shorts did very real damage to thousands of people already. The pressure from FUD and Wall Street triggered the June layoffs of 4,000 people at Tesla - many of whom have invested years of their career into the company. How many families faced financial trouble due to that?
• Tesla workers are putting in crazy work hours to prove the doubters wrong against all the odds. How many relationships broke up due to that?
• There's also the negative external effects of the FUD: the fires, the accidents, the executive turnover, the amplified negative news and lies spread about Tesla non-stop by shorts, often gleefully and maliciously even in that very Twitter thread. These activities to spread disinformation about Tesla are keeping quite a few people from buying Tesla products and are still keeping quite a few investors from investing in Tesla.
• After the March 2018 Moody's downgrade, helped along and cheered by shorts, Tesla faced real existential trouble: being a leveraged, financing based company both on the growth (corporate bonds) and on the customer side (solar bonds, auto leases) Tesla was particularly vulnerable to a "crisis of confidence", i.e. a bank run. Suppliers being worried about Tesla's solvency, amplified by relentless FUD, could have cut off the flow of key parts.

Personal casualties are always sad - but this onslaught of FUD is not a war Tesla started.

Nobody forced him to bet against and spread lies about a uniquely innovative company, which malicious acts could have contributed to tens of thousands of honest to earth workers losing their jobs and their retirement equity.

Not to mention tens of thousands of Tesla investors losing their investment.

Yes, I only feel sorry for his family - not for him.

All these people are at best mercenaries- willing to ruin 37,000 jobs for a few bucks.

 

[sundaymorning]

Fed Zeppelin on Twitter

Wow lol! I don’t feel bad for FUD spreaders and people who risk their life savings in a stock. We’re going to see a lot more sob stories soon. Can’t wait. (He’s also selling off his belongings on eBay, maybe Spiegel will help him out )

Edit: anddd I get blocked

I call this the short Ponzi scheme. Guys like Spiegel and Chanos dug themselves a hole so deep they have no option but to try and convince more shorts to get in, unfortunately, smarter shorts like Citron bailed at the last moment, leaving dumber less knowledgeable shorts holding the bag. Due to their constant attacks, lies, FUD I don’t feel sorry for this short feller. I don’t think he or other shorts would feel any sympathy taking my money when they purposely tried to tank the stock. What goes around comes around, and I honestly enjoy watching their positions burn. We gave them plenty of warnings.

There, I said it, this is how I feel. It’s raw & authentic just like his post.
why on earth would you bet against a company trying to save the world from climate change?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Can someone explain how ARK can get to a $4000 future valuation.

Yes, their CEO Cathy Wood explains it here:

And here is the letter she refers to that ARK Invest sent to Elon Musk explaining how they arrived at their $4,000 / share valuation:

Dear Elon: An Open Letter Against Taking Tesla Private - ARK Investment Management

CHE3RS!