TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

Yes, I only feel sorry for his family - not for him.

All these people are at best mercenaries- willing to ruin 37,000 jobs for a few bucks.

Also 100,000+ Tesla investors, ex-employees with significant stock savings, not to mention risking a planet and the health and prosperity of its 7+ billion occupants by slowing down EV adoption.

Without Tesla the EV products from ICE makers would probably have even worse quality than today ...

 

[AlexS]

Fed Zeppelin on Twitter

Wow lol! I don’t feel bad for FUD spreaders and people who risk their life savings in a stock. We’re going to see a lot more sob stories soon. Can’t wait. (He’s also selling off his belongings on eBay, maybe Spiegel will help him out )

Edit: anddd I get blocked

If you look at the account, he is still retweeting crap about Tesla. so probably found some money to open new position.

Shorts are blaming Tesla fans of being cult followers. But I can tell you reading twitter and online forums- real cult is shorting tesla. tslaq guys are so blinded.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

...
Thank you for sharing the information that morgen in your native language is a colloquialism for "never gonna happen".
.

Thanks for the explanation.
Just a quick clarification. 'Morgen' was understood to be german word, but meaning it took on its own was from one of domestic partisans.vs.germans WWII movies.
Communist societies are closed in, inner looking, and isolated by their nature, with less various cultural content, and everyone would have been exposed to the same approved material(programming). Hence cultural references could become very strong and ingrained, more so than I've seen in the Western world.
Seeing Ivo's name together with morgen reference, I had very visceral reaction of 'why are you saying it won't happen'? first couple of seconds

 

[Fact Checking]

Can someone explain how ARK can get to a $4000 future valuation.

AFAIK, in high level terms ARK's main investment thesis is Tesla's lead and structural advantages in dominating the autonomy market, which will probably grow into a trillion dollars market by 2030.

They are not wrong, IMHO: Waymo with no car manufacturing advantage is valued at $170b already.

ARK already made a killing by being one of the big buyers at the $250 lows.

In fact I think their long term estimates of $4,000 $TSLA are probably conservative.

 

[CaliBear1]

Oh no, I've been drawn into this fray. You simply cannot get through to these luddites!

Fed Zeppelin on Twitter

Wow lol! I don’t feel bad for FUD spreaders and people who risk their life savings in a stock. We’re going to see a lot more sob stories soon. Can’t wait. (He’s also selling off his belongings on eBay, maybe Spiegel will help him out )

Edit: anddd I get blocked

 

[Artful Dodger]

ARK already made a killing by being one of the big buyers at the $250 lows.

In fact I think their long term estimates of $4,000 $TSLA are probably conservative.

Yes indeed, I laughed when I read their $4K thesis back in August and asked outloud
"Wot, no TESLA ENERGY?!"

So, there's another Trillion $ in Market Cap right there, unless other big energy players start moving within a few years (before its too late for them to catch up).

So in the 2030s when Tesla/SpaceX ships their first superconducting BEC-powered Hypersonic Spaceplane, I'm getting mine in Signature RED...

... because i know @SpaceCash will be getting his in Obsidian BLACK.

CH3ERS!

 

[BozieBeMe2]

I second that notion. as someone that was a latecomer to buying TSLA (starting ~1 year ago), I view the FUD & shortsellers as providing an artificially extended period to accumulate shares & have managed to amass a large position (for me) with a cost basis of $300. Many thanks to the wise heads in this thread (FactChecking, Neroden, KarenRei, Kurt Renz, & many others) that have been invaluable for teasing out the signal from the noise & helping me maintain the discipline required to buy at times when others were freaking out. Holding long & strong from this point on, as the value of TSLA & logic motivating Elon's vision will be recognized sooner or later for what it is. Also motivating for me as a federal research scientist that studies climate change is that TSLA is the tip of the spear in a market based, sexy solution to addressing an overarching threat that our government has proven woefully unable & unwilling to address. Now back to lurking...

My sentiments exactly

 

[Open Interest]

OT
Curious as to how the register of who owns what works. If ig.com (my trading platform) were to have an IT meltdown (terror attack on primary and backup data centre, whatever, to satisfy this hypothetical), is there some record somewhere else that X shares of TSLA have my name on them? TIA.

In the US all financial institutions are required by law to have a disaster recovery plan. However, download and save your own records as well.

 

[Causalien]

I don't really know how I feel about this. In the end we are all small fish, tiny minnows, trying to swim with giant whales in a sea of blood. Some of the small fish bet the wrong way, some got lucky and bet the right way. The whales don't care if any of us live or die, they have rigged the ocean so they always win no matter what they do. He believed the wrong whales and got eaten. It could happen to any of us. If it was the opposite and the shorts ended up being right and we all lost everything, do you think it would have been any different?

Have some sympathy for your fellow minnows. Even the ones who literally bet against humanity's future. Because in the end, that's all we are.

Actually we do get a sense of satisfaction out of minnows getting slaughtered. "IF" they were like Spiegel and was actively rubbing it in and showing off when the trade went against us (generalizing my feelings onto others here, but there must be others who feel the same as me, or you are all better man than me). But if minnows were short but was not actively engaging me or rubbing it in to everyone's face on social media, I don't really care. The personal spats was initiated by the other parties. I was just content doing my own analysis and trying to make money.

Actually, overall, in this particular war, I find that the short side initiated a lot of the hate as they rub it in while the stock was suffering a crisis of confidence. I don't know if the longs are doing that to the shorts now, but I don't recall seeing it in the run up before. But I am biased to the long side. At least I personally don't participate on social media attacks like that... (just here... maybe, I don't know).

Personally, I estimate that I had to delay my life plans by about 5 years from this as I hold off on taking the expected profit (instead, pouring more into TSLA) as I see it >400 this year and > 500 next year. Not to mention the interest free loan I give to tesla on both a roadster 2020 and a model 3 deposit.

 

[peopleweb]

Has anyone noticed that the standard version of model3 has become available in 4-6 months?

 

[Alphacrux]

Tesla.com updated with once again M3 for delivery by December 31st. Also first time since the Model 3 has been out that its gotten the first/main slot on the Tesla.com homepage.

I think at this time they may be having trouble sustaining new orders in the US. Plenty of ways to rectify that tho by doing things like introducing leasing, pushing down the price and running ads.

Troubling if true. Im guessing these are inventory cars from running production full-bore in November. Fact-checking + others- any thoughts on US mod 3 demand?

 

[RobStark]

If you invested $1,000 in Tesla in 2010, here's how much you'd have now

From CNBC?

If you bought $1k worth of TSLA at IPO it would be worth just over $21k today.

 

[peopleweb]

Tesla.com updated with once again M3 for delivery by December 31st. Also first time since the Model 3 has been out that its gotten the first/main slot on the Tesla.com homepage.

I think at this time they may be having trouble sustaining new orders in the US. Plenty of ways to rectify that tho by doing things like introducing leasing, pushing down the price and running ads.

Maybe because Increased production capacity, improved delivery system, and partial inventory？

 

[Buckminster]

OT

I do not share the LOLs. Many can get carried away with investing and this is not fun at all when kids are part of the equation of whether a suicide is committed or not. I do not wish to see this happen. F.. the squeeze and I vote for an orderly shorts exit.

I liked this post and then I liked Factchecking's post.. Never have my morals been pulled apart like this.. Schadenfreude can be good for us apparently. A middle ground would be to have a squeeze but not until May. It may feel less severe by then as am amateurs will have given up all ready.

Can someone explain how ARK can get to a $4000 future valuation.

• Is that something that is so far out there that it is completely unobtainable?
• Is it based on an assumption that revenue/earnings will grow 10x over the next several years and therefore stock will be up 10x
• Is ti based on an assumption of current earnings (4 profitable quarters) and the stock finally getting a PE ration of a "hi-tech" company given it's growth rate vs an automobile company?

I'm long TSLA but trying to get an understanding if i'm in for 200% gain or 10x gain over the next 5+ years.

ARK thesis is simplistic. My preference is to go with something more technical. I call it the "feeling". I just know it is gonna go up to $4000. Impossible to define - you just know it. A little like "faith" but more scientific!
One way to get the feeling is to hang out here and obsess over all the great things that Tesla could do in the future and then factor in a 30% operating margin. Then remove a healthy margin for risk. I have tabulated all the good things here:
Dry powder / milestones
There are so many, our chimp brains cannot fathom them all at once!
I have recently added in SP guesstimates. It doesn't really work like that because investors prefer to go with boring p/e ratios - this is more fun and I think better for a stock at the start of its journey to greatness.

 

[avoigt]

Thats interesting. We have not heard a lot about other manufacturers e.g. like Bollinger considering using Tesla charging network but now we know this is considered but the issue is more with them and not with Tesla who offered them to participate.

Capacity is a crucial element I assume and Tesla won't allow it if they find their customers likely suffering from it once many other brands limit the ports.

“We’re definitely open to talking to other car manufacturers who want to have access to the network. Capacity is a driver for our investment; it’s new routes, new markets and then capacity. A lot of car makers have spoken to us about it, but we haven’t had any conclusive discussions on it. They’re still trying to figure out what they would need in a network, but we’re a couple of years ahead of them in terms of embracing the investment required to transition to EVs,” Bennett said.

Tesla begins Supercharger CCS upgrade ahead of Model 3 rollout in Europe

 

[Artful Dodger]

Thats interesting. We have not heard a lot about other manufacturers e.g. like Bollinger considering using Tesla charging network but now we know this is considered but the issue is more with them and not with Tesla who offered them to participate.

I chatted with Robert Bollinger via DISQUS on this subject. He was unaware of Elon's standing offer to make the Tesla Supercharger network available to other OEMs. I suggested to Robert that he ask, and he did so via Twitter at 9:50 AM - 16 Aug 2018

Bollinger Motors on Twitter:

"@elonmusk Can we use your charging stations?"​

Unfortuately, Aug 16 was the day of the NY Times Interview hit-piece on Elon which cause TSLA to drop $20 overnight.

Since he was *busy* that day, Elon likely never saw the tweet from Robert Bollinger, who AFAICT has not tried again to make contact.

Oh well, his loss. And 1,000s of his Customer's loss too, since Bollinger doesn't have the resources on its own to build out a trans-continental DC Fast Charger network.

Cheers!

 

[Thekiwi]

Can someone explain how ARK can get to a $4000 future valuation.

• Is that something that is so far out there that it is completely unobtainable?
• Is it based on an assumption that revenue/earnings will grow 10x over the next several years and therefore stock will be up 10x
• Is ti based on an assumption of current earnings (4 profitable quarters) and the stock finally getting a PE ration of a "hi-tech" company given it's growth rate vs an automobile company?

I'm long TSLA but trying to get an understanding if i'm in for 200% gain or 10x gain over the next 5+ years.

Im a fundamentals guy.

At $4000 a share at the rough martket average P/E of ~25 = Earnings of $160 a share

$160 a share with 200 million shares outstanding equals $32 Billion in Net income. That’s entirely possible in the medium/long term in a relatively good case scenario

5 million cars annually with a measly $5k net income per car average gets you $25 Billion net income all by itself. (Thats not even a best case scenario - in fact far from it). Now add Tesla energy, TaaS & services revenue. And now add other unknown product lines.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Haven't seen Chanos for a long time, why don't he show up?

He's probably closing out his position and doesn't want to let anyone know until he has finished.

 

[jschwefel]

Im a fundamentals guy.

At $4000 a share at the rough martket average P/E of ~25 = Earnings of $160 a share

$160 a share with 200 million shares outstanding equals $32 Billion in Net income. That’s entirely possible in the medium/long term in a relatively good case scenario

5 million cars annually with a measly $5k net income per car average gets you $25 Billion net income all by itself. (Thats not even a best case scenario - in fact far from it). Now add Tesla energy, TaaS & services revenue. And now add other unknown product lines.

And knowing that Tesla is selling a $5k+ software package on a lot of those cars makes the profit even more likely. Does any other company have the number of potential customers Tesla has to sell $5k+ in software? I can’t think of any.

 

[KarenRei]

You mean like they violate the Type 2 standards?

The base CCS connector is IEC 62196-2. Tesla's is a backwards-compatible format with IEC 62196-2. CCS combo is IEC 62196-3, a different backwards-compatible format with IEC 62196-2. Tesla is no more in "violation" of the base IEC 62196-2 than CCS combo is. Tesla is the only manufacturer that went with their variant because IEC 62196-3 wasn't published until 2014, while IEC 62196-2 was published in 2011.

I hate these "Tesla made up their own standards because they wanted to be different" myths. No, Tesla has its "own thing" because they were first. The reason there are different connectors are because everyone else wanted to be different.

Could Tesla achieve > 200A on IEC 62196-3 (CCS Combo) v1.0 by modifying IEC 62196-3 into a different format that's backwards-compatible with IEC 62196-3 v1.0, rather than waiting for v2.0? Of course they could. Would people whine to high heaven about that for years to come, like they've whined about Tesla's Menneckes-variant connector? You betcha.

And regardless, look at those cables. The CCS cable looks thinner, no? Thus, lower gauge. Combined with no signs of cooling? Lower power.

I hope I'm wrong.